The Millennium Project’s Post

Kopi Time E130 - Shekhar Aiyar on the case for globalisation Shekhar Aiyar, a Non-resident Fellow at Bruegel - Improving economic policy, on leave from the International Monetary Fund, joins #KopiTime #podcast to mount a substantive case for globalisation, a much-maligned word in some circles these days. Sharing his cutting edge research, Shekhar refers to considerable empirical evidence to establish the gains from trade for various parts of the global economy over the past half century. He then shares findings on the cost of reversing the course, a process termed as geoeconomic fragmentation. We discuss how that is measured, the estimated costs, and the implication for international monetary system and the global financial safety net. We then move on to another strand of Shekhar’s research, productivity spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment. Triangulating data from multiple sources, Shekhar and his co-authors have put together a large firm-level cross country panel dataset. Some of the findings from analysing that dataset are fascinating, from the modes of spillover to the differing results for emerging and industrial economies. This takes us to a discussion on industrial policies’ role in driving investment, and the various associated perils. Deep insights. https://lnkd.in/gVK_sqvF

Kishore Mahbubani Provides perspectives of a senior UN official and insightful international observer Provides a comprehensive and in-depth study of the global dynamics and challenges Offers insights and concrete solutions for dealing with internal crises to restore international governance This book is open access, which means that you have free and unlimited access https://lnkd.in/evgDwvZc

The Dangerous Myth of Deglobalization: https://ow.ly/ORBL50Thr8O

Michael Beckley's presentation at the World Knowledge Forum on 'The End of China's Rise and the Future of Global Order' raises critical questions about the balance of global power in the years to come. His argument that China may face growth limitations due to demographic challenges, resource scarcity, and economic pressures is compelling. However, I wonder whether we might be underestimating China’s resilience and its ability to innovate through adversity. China has shown remarkable adaptability in the past—its pivot to technology, renewable energy initiatives, and expansive Belt and Road projects are just a few examples. Will these efforts counterbalance the internal pressures Beckley describes? Or, will the broader world order shift as China encounters these limits? It’s a thought-provoking reminder of the complexity and fluidity of global influence. How do you see these factors reshaping the future of geopolitics?

Economic integration and globalisation, the free flow of trade, with the United States at the helm: that is the economic order the world has known for decades. Today, the disintegration of the rules-based old world order is evident. https://lnkd.in/gRHxPMpK

Célestin Monga: How can trade and transformation unlock development?   The #WeeklyTradecast talks to Célestin Monga — Harvard professor and former Senior Economic Adviser at the World Bank — for his expert insights on how trade, smart diversification and investment hold the keys to a more stable and sustainable future.   With UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) marking 60 years in the midst of cascading crises, Monga’s expertise offers important perspective on reshaping global development.   Don’t miss this episode with one of the leading voices in economic policy: https://ow.ly/hoyn50TNuXw #UNCTAD60

Célestin Monga: How can trade and transformation unlock development?   The #WeeklyTradecast talks to Célestin Monga — Harvard professor and former Senior Economic Adviser at the World Bank — for his expert insights on how trade, smart diversification and investment hold the keys to a more stable and sustainable future.   With UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) marking 60 years in the midst of cascading crises, Monga’s expertise offers important perspective on reshaping global development.   Don’t miss this episode with one of the leading voices in economic policy: https://ow.ly/hoyn50TNuXw   #UNCTAD60

Globalisation Is it time and/or logical for this continent to effect a simple update to be consistent with the major part of other continents? For example, if the date is X day of y month and Z year why not identify it as X-Y-Z (or Z-Y-X), rather than Y-X-Z?  If measurement is easier in decimals, why measure in 6s and 12s instead and then convert to that adopted by most of the rest of the World in order to communicate beyond these boundaries?  😏

The End of China’s Rise and the Future of World Order — Analysis by Michael Beckley How often do we step back and view today’s global tensions through the lens of history? Michael Beckley’s recent talk offers a masterclass in using historical patterns to decode the complex dynamics of geopolitics and economics. What struck me most was Beckley’s ability to connect the past with the present, illustrating how economic peaks often precede stagnation or decline. His insights into China’s slowing growth and its ripple effects on global order are not only thought-provoking but also deeply rooted in historical precedence.  Key Insights from the Talk: 1 Economic Fragility: China’s state-led growth model faces mounting inefficiencies, unsustainable debt, and diminishing returns on investment. 2. Demographic Crisis: The aftershocks of the one-child policy are creating a shrinking workforce and a rapidly aging population. 3.Strategic Overreach: Aggressive foreign policies, like the Belt and Road Initiative, are stretching resources thin and fueling global pushback. 4. Global Resistance: Nations are banding together—economically and strategically—to counterbalance China’s influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Beckley doesn’t just paint a picture of decline; he warns of the instability that could arise as China seeks to secure its position. Could we be heading toward more geopolitical conflicts or economic decoupling? Key Takeaways: 1. Beckley’s nuanced discussion of demographics and debt cycles provides a fresh perspective on the future of superpowers. 2. His emphasis on historical turning points, such as Britain’s decline after its economic zenith, serves as a critical reminder: no rise is eternal. 3. The implications for technology, alliances, and leadership decisions are profound—are we ready to adapt to this shifting landscape? What do you think of Beckley’s approach? Does history offer the ultimate guide to understanding global power shifts, or are today’s challenges too unprecedented to compare? Share your thoughts below! #Geopolitics #EconomicTrends #GlobalOrder #MichaelBeckley #China #Leadership #StrategicInsights #HistoryMatters https://lnkd.in/gr6xuHHH

🌍 The World Economic Forum's latest report sheds light on the pivotal role of technology in reshaping the future of global trade and development. 🌍 Key insights from the report: - The critical need for digital transformation in trade systems. - Strategies to enhance global supply chain resilience. - Innovations driving sustainable and inclusive economic growth. This report underscores the importance of collaboration between public and private sectors to address global challenges and foster a more resilient and equitable future. Explore the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dJh35XX5 #GlobalTrade #Innovation #Sustainability #EconomicGrowth #WEF Venu Borra Chris Sunderman Bob Gravestijn Sami Bousri Craig Atkinson, CITP Sean White Chen Shanlong