The Zambakari Advisory, L.L.C.’s Post

In the article "A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO," M. E. Sarotte outlines a strategic approach for Ukraine to join NATO amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. The proposal suggests Ukraine should adopt a provisional strategy similar to West Germany’s during the Cold War, where it tolerated a temporary division without recognizing it as permanent. This would entail defining a defensible border and agreeing to self-limitations on military infrastructure to assure NATO allies that Ukraine won’t drag them into war with Russia. The article highlights five key challenges to this plan. Firstly, all NATO allies, including the U.S. Senate, must approve Ukrainian accession, which is a significant hurdle. Secondly, Russia would strongly oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership, but could frame it as a victory by calling for Ukraine’s partition. Thirdly, any negotiations with Russia would be difficult since Putin is unlikely to settle given his belief that time is on his side. Fourthly, Ukraine’s President Zelensky might face domestic backlash, but he could mitigate this by blaming the West. The proposal argues that NATO membership for most of Ukraine would offer a pathway to stability, security, and economic recovery, similar to West Germany's post-NATO accession. It emphasizes the urgency of securing Ukraine's future amidst dwindling Western support and the potential re-election of Donald Trump, which could jeopardize ongoing assistance. https://lnkd.in/gkwvdx9f The author, however, doesn’t mention the case of Austria and the argument for neutrality. This omission seems deliberate, given that the author likely knows the featured case studies are not the only post-World War II examples of successful neutrality. As I have argued elsewhere, perhaps Ukraine’s survival hinges on its ability to convince both the East and the West that, like Austria, Norway, Ireland, and others, it can accept EU membership without the deadly consequences of NATO entanglements. #UkraineNATO #NATOMembership #SecurityStrategy

A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO

A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO

foreignaffairs.com

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