#DumbIdeas #NuclearPower #SMRs #Ontario
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Last year, Corporate Knights Research Director Ralph Torrie recalled the more than C$10 billion in written-off costs for the original Darlington construction project that essentially bankrupted Ontario Hydro, then the second-largest power utility in North America—based on projections of future electricity demand that never materialized in the real world.
“History continues to outrun electricity planning in Ontario, as it has been doing for decades now, and we all pay for the overshoots and malinvestment that result,” Torrie wrote at the time. “We cannot afford another round of ill-conceived commitments to multi-billion-dollar megaprojects that will be left half-built and stranded just as technology, market forces, and common sense converge on a smarter, less expensive, more distributed and renewables-based energy system.”
Energy system analysts Mark Winfield of York University and David Schlissel of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said they see no prospect that an expanded nuclear program in Ontario will stay within budget, compete with more affordable renewable energy and energy efficiency options, or deliver in time to meet a rapid decarbonization deadline. ...
Experience with recent conventional nuclear projects in North America and Western Europe “points to a continuing pattern of massive cost overruns and delays on the time scales of decades,” Winfield told The Energy Mix in an email. “One of the core problems with nuclear is that it does not see a significant learning curve—costs just keep going up, unlike renewables and storage, where you see performance improve and costs fall as experience is gained, and supply chains and project management and construction become more efficient.”
Given serious uncertainties around Ontario’s path to decarbonization and how much electricity the province will eventually need, Winfield said a more “rational approach” would deploy “lower-risk, lower-impact, and more flexible and scalable options” like demand-side management, energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and renewable energy with energy storage, “and only consider higher-risk, higher-impact, high lock-in resources after that.”
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By contrast, while Ontario is being “very closed-mouthed” about the small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) under construction at Darlington, costs elsewhere are already rising, making the technology far more expensive than renewables.
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While nuclear proponents have been talking about their technology co-existing with renewables, Schlissel said new nuclear capacity would be more likely to crowd cheaper, cleaner renewables out of the system.
“Nuclear plants are not economical unless you run them flat out,” he explained. Given the high cost of those projects, and the need to protect ratepayers from higher electricity rates to the extent possible, “there will be none of this about supplementing wind and solar, that when the sun ..."
⚡🏭🌿 Ontario's Energy Minister Stephen Lecce aims to make the province a "clean energy superpower," but his focus on nuclear power is raising concerns. Analysts warn that prioritizing nuclear over cheaper renewable options could lead to higher costs and delays. How can Ontario balance its energy ambitions with affordability and timely decarbonization? Read more about the debate: https://loom.ly/WQlnOUI
Data Manager, Writer, Advocate
4moThere are few people less qualified than Ralph Torrie and Dave Winfield to comment on nuclear power in Ontario. Their 2003 'Campaign for Nuclear Phaseout" work predicted nuclear would produce 1/3rd of what it actually did during the next 2 decades - and yet they still cling to the conclusions that built their careers.