Thematic Markets’ Post

Markets are abuzz with the "Trump trade" again, but what will #inflation and #Fed policy really look like in a prospective second #Trump term? I suspect much different from what the consensus expects. And is the consensus also ignoring compelling opportunities around the November and December Fed meetings? As always, Thematic Markets offers you value-added insights you'll find nowhere else. Why haven't you subscribed yet?

Don't miss the 2024 Halftime Report: A Swift Survey of Politics, Economics, and Markets for 2H2024 on August 15 at 10:00 AM CT. In this semiannual presentation, CEO David Waddell updates his 2024 Outlook, reviewing current market conditions, the political atmosphere, and providing a refreshed economic forecast for the second half of the year. As chair of the W&A investment committee, David combines macroeconomic forecasting, market analysis, and risk assessments to design portfolio strategies utilizing public market securities worldwide. Join us for valuable insights into the rest of 2024. Reserve Your Spot: https://rb.gy/6zohri #MarketUpdate #EconomicForecast #InvestmentStrategy #WaddellAndAssociates

🌐 Exploring the Intersection of Economics & Policy: In a pivotal year, the Fed faces data challenges. What does this mean for market dynamics? Dive into the insights here: https://lnkd.in/gUeAvws6. #Economics #Policy #Fed #MarketTrends 📈

Consumer confidence index is down once again in May, and expectations index remains below 80 for five consecutive months. #finance #economics #investments

-When Lucas speaks, economists and policymakers should listen. If you work in macroeconomic modeling, you've likely encountered Lucas's critique, a concept that fundamentally transformed macroeconomic analysis and policy evaluation. In his 1976 paper, "Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique," Lucas argued that traditional econometric models, relying on historical data, fail to account for how individual behavior adapts when policy rules change. His critique was both profound and disruptive : structural economic relationships are not invariant to changes in policy. This meant that policies based on historical correlations could lead to suboptimal or even counterproductive outcomes. The Lucas Critique marked the beginning of a new era in economics, emphasizing the importance of microfoundations, which are models built on the optimization behavior of rational agents operating under constraints. By incorporating forward-looking expectations, it paved the way for the development of the rational expectations hypothesis and DSGE models. However, as we continue to refine our tools for policy analysis, the critique remains as relevant today as it was nearly five decades ago. The rise of HANK models, for instance, seeks to address some of the limitations of representative agent DSGE models by integrating distributional considerations and capturing more realistic dynamics of households and firms. I’m leaving you with the paper.

Mesoeconomics is not just a buzzword; it’s a necessary evolution in economic thought. According to Gillian Tett (Financial Times), as we continue to face complex global challenges, the ability to analyse and understand the middle space of supply chains will be crucial. For aspiring finance professionals, diving into this emerging field could provide a significant edge, offering new insights and opportunities in an interconnected world. Read more about mesoeconomics and why it matters in our latest blog:  https://lnkd.in/df67_Ucs

Get access to our full range of 2023 Q4 country insights scores across 174 countries at https://ow.ly/AK7C50QJP46 --- Continuum Economics is an independent Macro, Policy, and Financial Markets research firm. --- #assetmanagement #financialmarkets #macroeconomics #capitalmarkets #economy #countryinsight

This evening I had the pleasure of presenting one of the most interesting papers on modern macroeconomic theory I have ever read, Kaplan & Violante’s 2018 American Economic Review submission titled “Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks”. Thrilled to have been able to explore the intricate connections between micro dynamics and their implications on macroeconomic aggregates. Looking forward to further discussion in the realm of HANK macro literature! #MacroPolicy #HANKModelling #HeterogeneousAgents #MastersDegree

A good blend by the grace of God, A Pastor and Professor in economics too; Get knowledge about Macroeconomic Misery Index, have a look below

💡New! Read the latest post on the topic of Narrative Economics written by Ali Hashemifara on the website: Many still accuse economists for the Stock Market Crash of 2009, arguing that economists must have used a normative approach to warn ordinary people about the imminent threat and to advise politicians on precautionary measures to be taken. There is always however something unexpected that might occur so irrationally... Read more ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/dhWHsPQT