Timpl’s Post

🌟 Another week of pivotal economic data for interest rates! The latest reports hint at a cooling trend, which could influence market movements in the coming weeks. 📈 The Non-Manufacturing Index showed lower values, a positive sign for rates aligning with the two-year trend of cooling. 📉 Good news on the inflation front as the prices paid index reflected lower inflation trends, easing concerns from previous spikes. 🔍 The Job Openings survey reinforced the idea of economic cooling, with the quits rate acting as a key indicator of shifting economic momentum. 💼 While this week's reports didn't make a huge impact on rates, they certainly align with the broader narrative of economic conditions. 📊 Next week's data will be even more critical, setting the stage for potential market reactions and further insights into the economic landscape. 💬 Stay tuned for more updates on how these economic indicators could shape future rates and market dynamics. Exciting times ahead for the interest rate watchers! 📈🔍

Will be interesting to see how todays strong jobs report impacts Fed rate cut decisions , and how that all plays out vs. current market expectations .

Read the latest Gallagher Weekly Markets Update featuring some of the week's top market headlines: https://lnkd.in/gn8rhPNn ➡ Turbulent Month Tempers Job Market Growth ➡ U.S. GDP Expands 2.8% in Q3 ➡ Home Price Gains Slow #EmployeeBenefits #FinancialMarkets #InstitutionalInvestmentConsulting

Read the latest Gallagher Weekly Markets Update featuring some of the week's top market headlines: https://lnkd.in/gn8rhPNn ➡ Turbulent Month Tempers Job Market Growth ➡ U.S. GDP Expands 2.8% in Q3 ➡ Home Price Gains Slow #EmployeeBenefits #FinancialMarkets #InstitutionalInvestmentConsulting

Read the latest Gallagher Weekly Markets Update featuring some of the week's top market headlines: https://lnkd.in/gn8rhPNn ➡ Turbulent Month Tempers Job Market Growth ➡ U.S. GDP Expands 2.8% in Q3 ➡ Home Price Gains Slow #EmployeeBenefits #FinancialMarkets #InstitutionalInvestmentConsulting

Read the latest Gallagher Weekly Markets Update featuring some of the week's top market headlines: https://lnkd.in/gn8rhPNn ➡ Turbulent Month Tempers Job Market Growth ➡ U.S. GDP Expands 2.8% in Q3 ➡ Home Price Gains Slow #EmployeeBenefits #FinancialMarkets #InstitutionalInvestmentConsulting

Read the latest Gallagher Weekly Markets Update featuring some of the week's top market headlines: https://lnkd.in/gn8rhPNn ➡ Turbulent Month Tempers Job Market Growth ➡ U.S. GDP Expands 2.8% in Q3 ➡ Home Price Gains Slow #EmployeeBenefits #FinancialMarkets #InstitutionalInvestmentConsulting

🗓🗓🗓 What's notable on the economic calendar today? 🔴 The European session is fairly data-light today with only a few non-major releases. The main event will be the US NFP report in the US session. ✔️ 19:30 - US NFP September Report 🟢 The US NFP is expected to show an increase of 140,000 jobs in September compared to 142,000 in August, with the unemployment rate remaining flat at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to come in at 3.8% year-on-year, unchanged from August, with the reading at 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4% previously. 🟢 The Fed expects the unemployment rate to be 4.4% by the end of the year with a 50 bps cut. The unemployment rate in 2024 has risen due to increased labor supply, not more layoffs, which the jobless claims data clearly shows. 🟢 The market is pricing in a 35% chance of another 50 bps cut in November, down from 53% at the start of the week. That chance could increase significantly if the NFP report is weaker than expected. Of course, a better-than-expected labor market report would make a 25 bps cut the most likely.

Coffee ☕ and Market Commentary 📈 📝 January Gains, Jobs Report Both Bullish for Markets ⭐ “There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know.” — Harry S. Truman ⭐ ▪️The S&P 500 Index gained 1.7% in January (total return) after a slow start to the year. ▪️S&P 500 gains in January have historically signaled above-average returns the rest of the year. ▪️The economy created 353,000 jobs in January, surprising to the upside. ▪️Job gains continue to support income growth, which in turn supports consumer spending and the overall economy. 🏈 While it has no bearing on the market, for those looking for a rooting interest, we review market performance after the NFC and AFC have won the Super Bowl. ▪️For a broad view of our expectations for the economy, stocks, and bonds in 2024, comment 2024 for our 2024 Market Outlook. 🌐 After huge gains last year and a rocky start to 2024, the S&P 500 rebounded during the second half of January and managed to finish the month higher. The next question is, does a good January mean much for the rest of the year? It might. The so-called January Barometer is widely known by the saying, “As goes January, so goes the year.” 🌐 You can read the rest of this week's commentary on our website 📧 Market Commentary posts weekly to Mitlin Financial, Inc® website and is sent to those who subscribe to the Mitlin Newsletter.