The Uhuru Institute for Social Development’s Post

Based on your perspective, there was good and bad news from the BLS concerning payroll employment in the USA this morning. The news was payroll employment grew by 254,000 in September and the last two months numbers were revised upwards by 72,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The expectations were that the unemployment rate would remain at 4.2% and payroll employment would increase by about 150,000. The data cemented Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s belief that the US labour market is on “solid Ground.” The implication for the Fed is that there may be no need for a rate cut in November and certainly no need for one of 50 basis points.  The numbers tend to support the idea of a higher neutral interest rate, which allows the economy to grow at full employment but keeps the interest rate around 2%.   The Canadian economy is different, particularly in our labour market. While demand is growing, supply has increased faster due to immigration policies. The relative disequilibrium is more extensive and will take longer to adjust. The Bank of Canada can help by decreasing the overnight rate of interest. One impact will be that our interest rate differential with the US will increase, and the value of the Canadian dollar will fall relative to the USD.   The Canadian labour markets and the general economy will adjust over an extended period. Of course, all this analysis assumes that what is happening politically and internationally remains stable, which is a big assumption.  

Like Wow: #US #nonfarm #payroll #growth revised down by #818000; When #badnews is #goodnews for #markets (green across the board) 25bps cut already priced in for September 18 #FOMC meeting. Will markets get more relief than #25bps, maybe if the incoming data points follow a similar path? "As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the BLS said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported. The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less than initially reported." #CNBC

🔴 #PAYROLL #DATA is #LAUGHABLE 🔶️ As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the #nonfarm #payroll #numbers, US Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was 30% #LESS than initially reported. 🔶️ This revision to total payrolls is the largest since 2009 -- at the time of that period's #Great #Recession. 🔶️ At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in #professional and #business services, where job growth was 358,000 #LESS than initially reported. 🔶️ These revised data are major #recession indicators! #economy #employment #recession

Global expansion brings new complexity and challenges to manage. For example, how do you forecast employee pay in a country with rampant inflation? Here using Argentina as a case study, we explore ways to manage payroll when expenses become impossible to predict. #globalexpansion #costprediction #business #payroll #globalpayroll

Private payroll grew less than expected during the first month of the year, with hiring slower than predicted. Only 107,000 workers were added to companies during the month, lower than the 158,000 in December. Jobs continue to be added in sectors like leisure and hospitality, transportation, and construction. Private payroll numbers are one piece of the puzzle for monitoring our overall economic environment. We will keep our attention on private payroll numbers and see how these trends continue to predict or affect our economy. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicInsights Source: https://lnkd.in/eS6D98Kr

Private payroll grew less than expected during the first month of the year, with hiring slower than predicted. Only 107,000 workers were added to companies during the month, lower than the 158,000 in December. Jobs continue to be added in sectors like leisure and hospitality, transportation, and construction. Private payroll numbers are one piece of the puzzle for monitoring our overall economic environment. We will keep our attention on private payroll numbers and see how these trends continue to predict or affect our economy. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicInsights Source: https://lnkd.in/eS6D98Kr

OUCH! Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March — or around 68,000 less each month – most since 2009, Labor Department says. Before the report, the BLS’s initial payrolls figures indicated employers added 2.9mln total jobs in the period, or an avg of 242k per month. Now the monthly pace is more likely to be ~174k, still a healthy rate of hiring but a moderation from post-pandemic peak At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less than initially reported. => The labor market appears weaker than originally reported. This should allow the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, CNBC

BREAKING: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) paints a mixed picture OUTLOOK: A jumbo 50bps cut on 18 September remains unlikely. 25bps is more like it. WHY IS THE PICTURE MIXED: Signs of strength: 1. Aug NFP report shows growth of payroll accelerated to 142k from revised 89k in July, even though the number is below expectations. The 3-mth average at 116,000 is still above the long-run breakeven rate 2. Wage gains accelerated at double the m/m rate compared to July 3. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in July Signs of weakness: 1. NFP data today also showed downward revision of job growth in July from 114k to just 89k. Also remember the massive 818k downward revision for the first quarter 2. US JOLTS data released on Wednesday showed job openings fell to 3 1/2 year lows in July, with even the June number revised lower. The report also showed lower quits rate — low confidence of finding another job 3. July ADP data for private sector payroll released on Thursday reconfirmed the trend by showing job growth at 3 1/2 year lows The case for 50bps cut is not very clear! Infact, it could scare the investors!! Source: Bloomberg