Veoci’s Post

I think more context should be given to help decide if we want to retain or change the 'standard' of using a 100-year return period flood. As our climate changes, the magnitude of that 100-yr flood changes. I took the liberty of screen capturing a graph from one of Mishtu S. Banerjee links he posted in response. The example is of historical temperature extremes and their return periods but this pretty much sums it up: blue line is 1950-1988 and orange is 1988-present for Houston. The earlier period's 100 yr RP was ~42C, more recently it's ~ 44.5C. So do we change the historical value that represents the 100 yr RP to reflect its current value/magnitude? Or should we agree that the historical 42C magnitude currently happens more frequently at, I am going to guess at the graph, say every 2 years? And to match the current 100 yr RP, we would have to extrapolate to 1000+ yrs? This is what we struggle with. I would propose we keep the 100 yr 'standard' but update it by using the more recent historical data as the benchmark/baseline, then project it under different climate scenarios. This will give us a future mean with either standard deviations or confidence intervals to work with.

"What should be put in the 100-year flood model’s place in order to support the design of infrastructure that can better withstand extreme flooding events in the future?" Read more analysis below:

WHEN 100 YEAR FLOODS COME EARLY ….. how do we anticipate; how do we mitigate/harden and pay for such changes? … how do we design and put in place more resilient infrastructure or social methods to adapt? Situations like these are where extreme events and capital costs coincide; or put another way, when return periods hit net present values. In comments I’ve thrown a link to the classic “boiling frog” story, told from a climate change perspective.

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Update: Flood Advisory issued February 5 at 11:53AM PST until February 5 at 4:00PM PST by NWS Hanford CA Kern, CA * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues. * WHERE...A portion of central California, including the following county, Kern. * WHEN...Until 400 PM PST. * IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1153 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - This includes the following streams and drainages... Oak Creek, Cottonwood Creek, Teagle Wash, Cache Creek and Little Dixie Wash. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Ridgecrest, Rosamond, California City, Randsburg, Edwards AFB, China Lake Acres, Inyokern, Mojave, North Edwards, Government Peak, Laurel Mountain, Boron and Indian Wells Canyon. - https://lnkd.in/dq-KeR8W Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

A great idea - a "Flood Resilience Group Meeting", good to see agencies working with property owners to find ways to protect themselves from the impact of flooding! Let's have more of these in other places that regularly flood. https://lnkd.in/enFAQimh #floodmatikyourdoorin24 #automaticfloodbarriers

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Floods...we are almost ALL in a flood zone. Which one may well be very important. Recent flooding throughout the United States is a stark reminder of the importance of flood preparedness. Understanding how much time you have to prepare, if flooding is expected, is crucial. Additionally, this guide can help you and your clients stay safe before, during and after the storm. https://lnkd.in/exB2tdZ #AlliantPrivateClient #FloodSafety #InsuranceInsights 

“According to the plan, more than 70% of all flood fatalities in Texas occur when people try to cross flooded low water crossings. The TWDB recommends additional funding for the removal of low water crossings, additional signage and bridge improvements.” Wow, 70% is quite a lot... a low water bridge is a hidden danger... people forget that a low water bridge is only designed to carry the low water under the bridge. High (flood) water moves over the bridge and the road and crossing can be really dangerous. So it is really important to address this issue through the recommendations provided, such as removal, additional signage and bridge improvements. But even if we have done that, I think it is also good to encourage the approach that if you come across a #flooded road, consider turning around and finding an alternative route. If driving in floodwater is avoidable, don't take the risk! Promote safety: Never drive through #floodwater! Even if you have a #Tesla 'boat' model...be careful and don’t take risk! #flood #TWDB