Macro data Update: Release Date: sept 6, 2024 Timing ⏱️: 8:30 US, 4:30 Dubai, 6:30 India Source Of Report: Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key U.S. economic indicator that tracks job creation, excluding the farming sector. Released monthly, it has a significant influence on financial markets. • Equities: Strong NFP data typically drives stock markets higher, while weak data can result in declines due to economic concerns. • Fixed Income: Positive NFP numbers often lead to rising bond yields, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy. Weak data generally lowers yields. • Currency Markets: The U.S. dollar tends to strengthen with strong NFP figures and weakens when the report underperforms. • Commodities: Strong NFP can depress safe-haven assets like gold and boost oil prices, while weak data has the reverse effect. The NFP is closely watched for its impact on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader economic outlook. Trade smarter with Zenith CFD Ltd Get the macro data insights that matter.
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STRATEGIQ Capital | Weekly Review: Weak U.S. Economic Data Weighs on Sentiment • The S&P 500 had its biggest weekly drop in 18 months. • Most of this week’s economic data missed expectations. • The U.S. added 142,000 jobs, which was lower than expected. • The ECB Governor suggested interest rate cuts could happen in September. • The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, making it harder for Japan's exporters. • China is thinking about cutting interest rates on $5.3 trillion in mortgages. • China’s PMI fell to 49.1 in August from 49.4 in July. • South African business confidence hit its highest level in nearly two years. • South Africa’s GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/d7PU78nu To make sure you don't miss out on the latest updates, we invite you to subscribe to our weekly newsletter! 📧 https://lnkd.in/dAvdv9UW
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The U.S. Federal Reserve has made a significant move, cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points - the first decrease since 2020. This decision is sending ripples through global markets and investors are keenly watching the Indian markets. To add context - historical data shows that Indian markets have had mixed reactions to US Fed rate cuts. Notably, during two tightening phases, the Nifty saw negative returns: from February 1994 to July 1995, it dropped 23% and from March 1997 to September 1998, it declined by 14%. B&G Private Wealth's In house view: Global dynamics can have short-term impact on market volatility. - With global inflation and growth trends shwoing sings of moderation, we may be nearing the end of this cycle of elevated interest rates. Historically, US rate cut cycles have led to negative equity returns in the US, with Indian markets (Nifty50 TRI) also seeing similar results in 2 of the last 3 instances. - The dot-plot indicated two more 25 bps cuts this year taking this range to 4.25% - 4.5%. Another 100 bps is expected in 2025. We expect that recession can still be avoided and continue to actively track economic data. Globally, emerging markets will now have more space to cut rates for their own economic stimulation. RBI is likely to deliver a cut in 2024. B&G Private Wealth
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IMF's 2023 GDP forecast was for 5.5-6.0% (actual was 5.5%) so the 2024 forecast for 6.2% appears doable although on the optimistic side. We expect GDP growth to average 6% for the first half of the year, owing to favorable base effects on net exports and government spending. The 2nd half of the year could see growth slip to 5%YoY brining full year GDP closer to last year's actual growth of 5.5%.
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Student Symbiosis International University, SIU | FMVA | NISM - XV & VA | Member of Banking Drive Committee | Best Student Award of the Year 2022 |
GDP Growth Projections for Key Economies (2024-2025) The U.S. has been one of the strongest advanced economies since the COVID-19 pandemic, though the IMF believes growth will taper off in 2025. This will be due to slower job growth and tighter fiscal policy (less government spending and/or higher taxes). In Europe, the IMF believes GDP growth will bottom out in 2024, and pick up in 2025. Germany in particular has struggled due to weakness in the manufacturing sector. For India, expected GDP growth in 2024 has been revised upwards to 7.0%, reflecting rising prospects for domestic consumption. In China, GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and 3.3% by 2029. This is a significant change from the growth rates seen in the 2010s, which hovered between 6% to 10%. A major reason for China’s slowing growth is its aging population, which will leave the country with fewer workers and more retirees. Source: VisualCapitalist
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Are your investments guided by facts or myths?📍 Lets Discover the truth behind common stock market misconceptions. 📍Myth 1: Strong GDP growth leads to strong equity returns. 👉Reality: Data shows that Indian markets can experience time-corrections even during periods of strong GDP growth. 📍Myth 2: Indian markets are trading at reasonable valuations. 👉 Reality: While the Nifty-50 may be reasonably valued, the broader market is trading at frothy valuations. 📍Myth 3: Higher post-tax returns in equities versus debt. 👉Reality: This argument doesn't hold true at all price points for equities. 📍Myth 4: Indian equities are pre-destined to deliver strong earnings growth for a long time. 👉Reality: Not all sectors will continue to perform strongly. 📍Myth 5: Flows determine returns. 👉Reality: Market prices reflect changes in expectations, not just changes in flows. Which area of your investment strategy do you want to improve? ❤️Understanding market valuations 👍 Risk management 🙏Sector analysis
