[01/30/24] GBTC Outflows Slow: Analyst Sees Bitcoin Climbing Above $50K

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WEEKLY ROUNDUP OF ETF FILINGS, LAUNCHES & CLOSURES

Markus Thielen seems on target again with his latest bitcoin price prognostication. What his latest forecast, a more than 15% increase in bitcoin’s price by the end of the quarter, foreshadows for the performance of spot bitcoin ETFs remains uncertain.

Grayscale GBTC outflows on Friday, the 11th trading day for the spot BTC ETFs, slowed to $255 million (although they now total $5 billion). Inflows to its competitors rose but more gradually than on earlier days in the products’ nascent history. 

Thielen, the founder of financial research platform 10X said in a Monday note that the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was primed for take-off past $50,000. BTC soared above $43,000 shortly after U.S. equity markets opened, rising nearly 3% over a 90-minute period. The increase followed a Friday jump that pulled bitcoin from depths below $40,000, where it had lingered since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs.

Thielen has a history of countering prevailing wisdom accuracy about bitcoin’s price path. On Jan. 14, three days after the new ETFs started trading, he forecast that BTC would sink to the $38,000 in the immediate aftermath, noting that the asset’s momentum indicators were sagging. Bitcoin and ETF observers had expected the price to rise once the products were available.

Last November, Thielen also predicted that bitcoin would reach $45,000 by year’s end, which also proved prescient. He has predicted that bitcoin will trade at about $120,000 by the end of 2024.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said he would probably begin tracking spot BTC performance “unless something crazy happens haha. No need for daily anymore really?”

By James Rubin

Below is a roundup of the key developments in the ETF industry during the week ending Jan. 26, 2024:  

Spot Bitcoin ETF Hangover: Weekend Trip or Long-Term Condition? Bitcoin-based products are likely to remain prominent on many investors’ radars.

Inverse Jim Cramer ETF Shuttered The ETF will be liquidated less than a year after its unveiling.

ETF, Mutual Fund Flows Rebounded Slightly Last Year Inflows bounced to $79 billion after $370 billion of outflows in 2022, Morningstar said.

Assets Pour Into Bond ETFs Ahead of Likely Rate Cuts Led by LQD and AGG, bond ETF inflows have reached more than $18 billion this month.

Buffered ETFs Go Head-to-Head on Fees Newcomers find an opening to compete on fees in the buffered ETF space.

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