...1825AD=+70mW/m2=Imbalance =>Greenhouse_Warming=+33°C ! ...2025AD=+1400mW/m2=Imbalance =>Greenhouse_Warming=+660°C ?
Joannes Sevenhans
Alcatel Academy Distinguished Member_2001 ...IEEE_Fellow_2000 for contributions to the design of solid state telecommunication transceivers ...PhD 1984 KULeuven ...Semi-retired ...Always looking for a next project ...
Difficult to say but ...
In the year 1825 Joseph Fourier calculated the +15°C-(-18°C)=+33°C greenhouse effect :
Other scientists calculated later that this +33°C warming was the result of +0,07W/m2=+70mW/m2 earth's energy imbalance in 1825, 2 centuries ago.
Earths energy imbalance today is +1,4W/m2=+1400mW/m2 or 20x more earth's energy imbalance now versus 1825.
In 1825 solar heat irradiance was about 1360500mW/m2 after the Dalton Minimum.
Today solar irradiance is about 1361000mW/m2 after the Modern Maximum or 0,5W/m2=500mW/m2 more solar irradiance than 2 centuries ago but over the years 2021=>2023 the imbalance went from then 0,5W/m2=500mW/m2 1971=>2020 average up to 1,4W/m2=1400mW/m2.
Cooling outgoing long wave went up about 2W/m2=2000mW/m2 from about 238W/m2 to about 240W/m2 about 25 year ago :
But 2000mW more cooling should give -2000mW/m2 less warming imbalance instead of +1400mW/m2-500mW/m2=+900mW/m2 more warming imbalance ...
Anyway :
In climate science there are too many unanswered questions and too many unquestioned answers ...
But : Health & Climate & Energy are really very complicated and delicate politico-scientific stuff and also socio-economic stuff but we do the best we can and try to explain it as simple as possible but not simpler than that in the group :
Senior Project Manager at Officine LUIGI RESTA SpA
2wIf the warming was due to increased CO2 (which is supposed to "trap" heat) then we should see a reduction of the OLR (outgoing longwave). This is also visible when applying the standard simple "official" GHE model assuming earth emissivity = 0.95 and albedo 0.295 (see below graph). But in reality, we see the opposite. Therefore, the warming / imbalance must be due to increased absorbed SW radiation (more irradiance and/or reduced albedo, more the second than the first). CO2 does nothing.
Technical Consultant - Pot Control/Technical Training
2wJoseph Fournier posted a picture (below) in response to another post today. What caught my eye was the uncertainty of cloud effect stated as +/- 10 W/m^2.
Knowledge Filtration. Turtle Theory
2wThe more we focus the more we overlook.