2- The Shifting: The Changing Landscape of Postsecondary Enrollment

For years, the world of postsecondary education in the United States was on an upward trajectory, with enrollment numbers steadily climbing. It was a promising era, contributing not only to the expansion of higher education but also to the nation's economic growth and competitiveness (Berger & Fisher, 2013). Colleges and universities brimmed with students eager to shape their futures.

However, as we stepped into the new decade, the academic landscape underwent a seismic shift that has left institutions grappling with a transformed reality.

In 2011, there were 20.1 million students enrolled in postsecondary institutions across the nation. This figure was a testament to the growing demand for higher education and the pivotal role it played in shaping the nation's future. Fast forward to the fall of 2021, and a stark contrast emerged. The number of enrolled students had dwindled to 17.1 million, marking a significant 15% decrease over the past decade (NSC, 2022).

Closures of Not-for-Profit Institutions in the United States (2009-2021)

Note. Data from PEPS Closed School Monthly Reports. (2023). U.S. Department of Education. Retrieved May 2, 2023, from https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/PEPS/closedschools.html

The Decline and Financial Strain

This decline in postsecondary enrollment has not spared most institutions, apart from a select few elite schools such as Harvard and Stanford. For the vast majority of institutions, especially Rural Serving Institutions (RSIs), enrollment is not just about academics; it's about financial sustainability. These institutions heavily rely on the tuition revenue generated from student enrollment (Markovits, 2019). As enrollment numbers dwindled, a financial storm loomed, casting a shadow over the 3,982 higher education institutions in the United States (NPR, 2020).

The financial pressure was most acutely felt by small, less selective, tuition-dependent private institutions, particularly those located in rural areas (NSC, 2021). As a result, these institutions found themselves at the crossroads, searching for ways to navigate the challenging financial terrain.

Closures and Challenges

The decline in postsecondary enrollment brought with it a wave of closures. Between 2002 and 2019, 754 colleges shuttered their doors, with most of these closures impacting two-year for-profit colleges. The year 2018 witnessed the highest number of closures, with 20 not-for-profit and 103 for-profit institutions ceasing operations (Kelchen, 2020). The situation didn't improve, and between 2019 and 2021, an additional 24 private, not-for-profit institutions had to close (PEPS, 2022).

Factors Contributing to the Enrollment Decline

The decline in postsecondary enrollment can be attributed to a multitude of factors. One significant contributor is the declining number of high school graduates due to changing demographics. As the population of high school graduates decreases, the pool of potential college students also shrinks (Gabbin, 2019).

Negative public perceptions of the value of a college degree have discouraged some students from pursuing higher education (Gabbin, 2019). The notion that a college degree may not guarantee a lucrative career as it once did has influenced the decision-making process of many prospective students.

Full employment has also played a role in reducing college enrollment. With job opportunities readily available, some individuals opt to enter the workforce directly, bypassing the traditional path of higher education.

The disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the challenges. It disrupted the normal operations of educational institutions, prompting many students to reevaluate their educational plans (Koricich et al., 2022). The uncertainty and changes brought about by the pandemic influenced students' decisions, leading some to postpone or reconsider their pursuit of higher education (Nadworny, 2022).

A declining international student enrollment has added to the complexity of the situation. International students have been a vital part of postsecondary institutions, contributing to the diversity of campuses and bringing in additional revenue. However, travel restrictions and safety concerns during the pandemic have led to a decrease in international student enrollment (Nadworny, 2022).

The Projected "Enrollment Cliff"

Looking ahead, the future of postsecondary enrollment appears uncertain. Projections indicate that the decline is expected to continue. The number of high school graduates is forecasted to keep decreasing as a result of a declining birth rate since 2008 and a slowdown in immigration rates (Gabbin, 2019).

Between 2025 and 2029, a 15% drop in enrollment is anticipated. This period has ominously been referred to as the "enrollment cliff" (Copley & Douthett, 2020). Beyond 2029, although the rate of decline is expected to be less steep, a one to two percent annual decrease is projected to persist at least through 2039 (Martin et al., 2020; CDC, 2020).

Competition and Financial Tightropes

In addition to factors affecting enrollment, institutions have had to respond to increased competition from peer institutions. Additionally, they face competition from alternative education providers offering micro-credential programs. The availability of alternative education pathways has made the higher education landscape more competitive (Olcott Jr, 2022).

To stay competitive, many institutions have resorted to tuition discounting policies. A study conducted by the National Association of College and University Business Officers (2020) found an average tuition discount rate of nearly 54% for first-time college freshmen across 361 private, not-for-profit institutions. While these discounts may attract more students, they also have the potential

To receive the full study; please send me a message on LinkedIn.

The study examined presidents of small, private, not-for-profit four-year institutions with fewer than 2,000 students. An online survey was distributed to all 170 institutions' presidents, with 70 responding. Additionally, 35 presidents took part in one-hour follow-up interviews.