2024 - Perspective and Predictions

2023 is winding down and as we enter 2024 I thought I would share some perspective and predictions as to what I think we will be thinking about specific to the realms of AI, Work/Leadership, Electricity and Sustainability and Security. In 25 years in the industry I cannot think of a time that held more promise than the present.

OUR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE JOURNEY 

1. AI moves to through “Rationalization and Normalization” – I would expect the “AI hype phase” of 2023 to evolve into a period of rationalization, and normalization. While this may slowdown overall innovation (and adoption), will allow us to manage AI more effectively into mainstream adoption over the next 5-10 years. To that end. I expect we will see the following trends and discussions continue.

• Deepfakes will Proliferate and even attract viewership: With significant advancements in multimodal models (text, video, photos), especially in video generation, sophisticated deepfakes will propagate across the internet and social media. Some of these deepfakes could challenge existing media companies and even become hits with consumers driving new media sensations. This could even bring media companies to rethink their own content development and even recruit some of this external for their own initiatives.
• Legislation will try to keep up: Legislation, already well under way in the EU, will attempt to play a pivotal role in regulating AI, it will be interesting to watch how the rest of the world, especially the US, enters the fray of regulation and legislation around AI. Copyright and legal use of publicly available content leveraged by LLMs will capture headlines as media companies look to monetize their content in this new medium.
• Maturation of Customer Service AI Agents: The year 2024 will witness the rise of capable AI agents solving for simple administrative functions like making reservations or planning trips, even interpreting and managing your calendar or SMS services with various services like TripAdvisor or OpenTable. Productivity apps like Google and Microsoft 365 will continue to add co-pilot type functionality into their apps to automate simple interactions.
• Large Language Models and their Limits: The power and the limits of monolithic large language models (LLMs) will become clearer, with a possible shift towards smaller, specific, multimodal models with curated data sets and deeper levels of detail. I'ld expect traditional systems of record (SAP, Oracle, ServiceNow) to lead in these efforts. These new "co-operative LLM models" will combine to bring more intelligent and accurate systems of engagement to market.
• Enterprise Adoption: The Enterprise AI market will likely experience a recalibration as the hype meets the reality that some ideas, while interesting, fail to justify their costs and risks and others require significant people/process transformation. Enterprises will trim their "moonshots" and focus investments on scaling initiatives that drive measurable outcomes and bring them closer to their customer base.
• AI in Education: Institutes of K-12 and higher education will start to recognize the importance of integrating AI and data science education early on, including leveraging AI as a co-pilot to drive the next generation of innovation. Educators will start to see the power that AI can provide in helping students to learn, think beyond the curriculum and extend global perspective.

2. Augmented Reality (AR) starts to show promise in augmenting human capability across key industries (medical, construction, aviation) – I would expect to see increasing adoption of AR technology in various industries, significantly augmenting human capabilities and revolutionizing traditional practices.

• AR in the Medical Field: The healthcare industry is experiencing a surge in AR applications. Innovations like 3D imaging during surgeries and efficient management of treatment schedules and plans with an immersive approach to medical training and education. I’d expect to continue to see a continued evolution and integration of AR into telemedicine, radiology and remote diagnostics.
• AR in Construction: AR is transforming the construction industry by offering advanced tools for 3D design and engineering, prototyping and quality assurance. This approach is revolutionizing the way buildings and structures are planned, engineered, tested and constructed.
• AR in Aviation: The aviation sector is seeing a significant growth in AR applications primarily used for training pilots, crew, and ground staff, enhancing situational awareness, security, and improving operational efficiency.

3. The DPU/GPU battle heats up - The current global shortage of GPU processors will continue and is likely to accelerate an evaluation of alternatives including edge processing and lower-power alternatives. The dynamics here should be interesting to follow.

• The battle between Data Processing Units (DPUs) and Graphics Processing Units will continue (GPUs) to heat up with continued leadership from incumbent Nvidia but increasing competition from traditional CPU vendors Intel, and AMD.
• Public cloud vendors Microsoft, Google and Amazon will vigorously expand in this space with their own native silicon offerings. I expect to see a hybrid approach here with an offload of traditional GPU activities to lower cost/higher efficiency native GPU/CPU/DPUs with DPUs carving a niche in enhancing network and storage performance.
• Data pipeline integration and application instruction sets will continue to be a very important differentiator in accelerating time-to-value and differentiating efficiency. Cloud, data and platform vendors will market their capabilities to simplify the data pipeline in order to accelerate insights and decrease infrastructure costs.
• Data Storage platforms will continue to be a critical enabler for AI in the management and security of growing enterprise data sets ensuring data is in the right place at the right time. While performance and scale will continue to be table stakes, simplicity and flexibility in deployment and orchestration combined with "as-a-service" consumption will drive leadership.
• Edge analytics will arrive on the scene as a way to take some of the computational burden off of AI clouds and instead parse the workload to mobile, PC and workstations. Apple's silicone is already showing promise in this area.

HOW WE WORK, HOW WE MANAGE, HOW WE LEAD….

1. Our Definition of the Workplace continues to Evolve – 2024 will bring a broader shift in how all organizations view the role of the workplace, emphasizing flexibility, employee well-being, and the continued creation of dynamic, people-centric environments.

• Return-to-Office (RTO) Mandates: Employers will continue to encourage return-to-office in order to drive a stronger sense of connection, camaraderie, and collective purpose.
• Continued Design of “People-Centric Workplaces”: Facilities Management focus will shift from real estate metrics to people performance. Workplaces will evolve to curated destinations offering a mix of experiences both social and professional and supporting both individual and collaborative work. The vision here is to create a compelling destination, offering a blend of what people enjoy at the office and at home, like privacy, acoustic control, and fresh air.
• Innovative Use of Office Space: Offices are expected to become more dynamic, focusing on choice and workers’ well-being. Trends include moving away from open plans to varying degrees of openness including collaborative spaces optimized for ideation, the buildout of mentorship and coaching facilities, teambuilding spaces doubling as fitness centers and privacy pods for focused work.

2. "Purpose" becomes the fuel of work and leadership steps up as the "Amplifier"– A new generation is entering the workforce and existing workers are craving a greater emotional connection to their employment meaningful engagement will become a key driver of employee satisfaction, performance, and organizational success.

• Leaders will need to lead around purpose: Employees are seeking leaders who are not only proficient in their business acumen but are also empathetic, connected to real-world problems and aligned with broader societal and personal values. Leaders ability to help their teams to connect work and life to a greater purpose will be key drivers of productivity and loyalty.
• Empathy becomes table stakes in Leadership: Employees will increasingly expect leaders to understand and relate to their concerns and aspirations. This trend signifies a shift from traditional autocratic leadership styles to more emotionally intelligent and empathetic approaches creating a purpose-driven workplace culture.
• Well-being and Purpose Integration: The concept of emotional, social, and physical well-being in the workplace will evolve to include the fulfillment of purpose and passion. Leaders will be critical in enabling the connection within their teams and extending to teams around them.

POWER AND ELECTRICITY

1. Electricity constraints risk choking off innovation – The energy sector will continue to struggle to keep up with the increase in demand for electricity. While the future holds promise we will continue to struggle with this reality through 2024. I expect the following themes to be front and center.

• Continued Focus on Clean Energy and Electrification: The momentum for the clean energy transition is expected to carry over into 2024, with a growing number of US electric companies committing to significant carbon emission reductions. Investments in clean energy generation projects and manufacturing are on the rise, driven by initiatives like scale solar installations renewable electricity generation. Energy storage technologies will continue to be pivotal in stabilizing pricing and managing consumer demand more effectively.
• Challenges in Grid Modernization and Infrastructure: The electricity industry is grappling with the need for grid modernization and infrastructure development to support the growing demand and transition to cleaner energy sources. Electricity availability will greatly vary by country and region, and we will see an increase in government-imposed limitations on data center buildout where supply is constrained.
• Increasing Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Utilities: AI's role in electric utilities is poised to grow, aiding in enhancing resilience against various hazards and facilitating the integration of intermittent renewable energy and arbitrage. This technological advancement is expected to give some short-term relief with optimized grid balancing and improvement in the efficiency of existing power plants.

2. Electric vehicle markets normalize - While the EV market is still growing, it also is entering a phase of reassessment and recalibration, with manufacturers and consumers adjusting to new realities in the market related to pricing, product offerings, and broader market adoption to sustain the growth momentum of the EV sector.

• Growth in EV Sales: The growth in EV sales is anticipated to slow down in 2024. Despite this adjustment, the sales are still set to represent a 20% increase from the previous year's forecast. Factors contributing to this include macroeconomic challenges, such as higher new vehicle interest rates and a dialing down in government subsidies dampening to offset the high cost of EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.
• EV Charging will see some retooling and expansion: Last year’s news around the leverage of Tesla’s charging network is only the beginning. I’d expect we could start to see more collaboration across EV manufacturers including innovative models for battery swap-outs, faster charging technologies and innovation to extend ranges beyond 500 miles per charge.

3. Nuclear fission interest expands on its long journey to mainstream – The nuclear fission industry's ongoing efforts to overcome challenges and capitalize on opportunities, signal its gradual move towards mainstream adoption. Success here over the next decade will be dependent on resolving supply chain issues, the push for advanced reactors and microreactors, and government sponsorship.

• Supply Chain Challenges: Both fission and fusion sectors are facing supplier reluctance to make necessary investments. This hesitation stems from uncertainty in the scale and timeline of reactor deployment. For advanced reactors, new materials and components are needed, which are currently limited. Key supply chain issues include the lack of fabrication capability for module fabrication, shortage of nuclear-grade components, and specific material supply chain gaps.
• Global Nuclear Power Developments: Different regions worldwide will continue their involvement in traditional nuclear power development. For instance, Canada is undergoing a lifetime extension refurbishment for several reactors, aiming for a cleaner electricity mix. In the USA, despite a reduction in the number of operable reactors, the focus remains on improved operational performance and maintenance strategies. Meanwhile, countries like China and India are aggressively pursuing nuclear power capacity growth, with China leading in new nuclear build and exporting reactor technologies globally.

INFORMATION SECURITY AND PRIVACY 

Cybercrime remains a major challenge- Despite all the work that has been done to thwart cyberattacks the revenue opportunity and political shockwaves are just too much for underground groups to resist. With rootkits becoming more sophisticated and the additional of AI aided “phishing” I expect this to continue in 2024.

• Wider rollout of Live Identity Verification: As AI technology improves, more organizations will embrace live identity verification through video. This will be yet another step to confirm that individuals are who they claim to be, especially during new account onboarding processes to prevent the use of AI-generated images or videos.
• Focus on Estate Security and Increased Use of Proactive Security Tools: Organizations will continue to invest in proactive, predictive security tools and technologies to better detect vulnerabilities and security gaps. IT Currency (patching and updates of data center assets) will continue to be a major focus area for large enterprises. Ethical hacking and penetration test services will continue to mature to keep pace with evolving threats.
• Increased Scrutiny on Connected and Embedded Devices: All 3rd party connected and embedded devices will come under strict security standards before accessing internal networks.
• Data Resiliency strategies will evolve: Enterprises will evolve their data protection strategies continuing to look beyond traditional backup/recovery holistically ensuring that their key data is available 7x24x365 regardless of the circumstance. This strategy will include encryption, replication, snaps/clones, backup and rapid restoration of backup data sets in the event of a unrecoverable breach.
• Global Conflicts and Elections Fueling Hacktivism: The intersection of numerous global conflicts and the 2024 Presidential elections in the US is likely to lead to a rise in hacktivism. This includes taking over control of key government services, national media outlets, a proliferation of social media bots to shape public opinion.
• Experiential approaches to Security Awareness Training: With the adoption of generative AI in cyber threats, traditional security awareness training is set to transform from a “listen and learn” approach to continuous live testing and reinforcement. Organizations could even move to make failure of these tests more punitive and part of their employment contracts.
• CISO voice will extend to all areas of the business: CISO teams will become an even larger partner asking 3rd party vendors more questions around security processes, testing, and authorization and access and even looking to better understand software development lifecycles before approving access to corporate networks.

I could not be more excited about the opportunities that lie ahead in 2024 and look very much forward to continuing the conversation!