2024: A year of elections in review

Over half the global population voted in elections in 2024. On every (inhabited) continent, a number of general elections took place. The key takeaway? 2024 was an extremely difficult year for incumbents across the globe, and traditional political parties struggled at the expense of minor parties and independent candidates who increased their vote share. Few nations saw political power swing to the left, with the UK, Mexico, South Korea and Iceland standing with few other friends on the left and centre left. The right, and right to far-right populism saw large gains across the planet. The message of frustration was certainly sent worldwide, although the extent to which it has been received is yet to be deciphered.

Through the prism of incumbency struggles, new and minor party surges and right wing populism, let’s look at some of the most impactful elections that took place in 2024.

The United Kingdom: 

With almost half of parliamentary seats changing party hands, the worst result in history for the Conservative Party, and a Labour Party majority almost as large as Tony Blair’s in 1997, but with almost 4,000,000 fewer votes. The number of Liberal Democrats returned to a substantial size not seen since the years of the Coalition Government. The Green Party won four seats, the first time they have had more than one member in the House of Commons. Reform gained its first seats in history, and a number of Independent candidates won seats that were previously Labour strongholds while the Scottish Nationalist Party almost entirely collapsed. We’ve had eyes on the development of appointments, promotions, reshuffles and internal politics since day one, and if that tells us anything, it’s that the internal political machine will play a great role in the coming years.

The United States:

Former President Donald Trump secured a return to the White House with an electoral college landslide, but with extremely narrow senate and house majorities, and with less than 50% of the popular vote. Legislative gridlock and both Democrats and Republicans being divided parties poses great challenges for the second Trump administration. The Democrats face an uphill battle going into 2026, and with the roles Nigel Farage and Elon Musk have played and look to play in the administration, maintaining positive relationships with the new Trump administration while Elon Musk looks to intervene in British politics will be a difficult task for Sir Keir Starmer.

India:

The largest democracy in the world and the highest turnout election ever, with over 900,000,000 votes cast. The BJP’s loss of an outright majority in India signals large dissatisfaction with aspects of Modi’s governance, notably a centralised, nationalist approach which has been reflected with regional parties rising in popularity. This, married with rising economic and regional inequalities, leaves instability when regional parties form the power brokers in India’s coalition. The balance between a commitment to a centralised, nationalist model while depending on regional and oppositional voices will prove difficult for Modi. On a global level, India’s role will remain stable for the time being, but any instability in the world’s most populated nation will be felt internationally, were the tight balance of power to be shaken.

Mexico:

The Mexican election was one of the few other leftist wins in 2024. Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory as the first female president in Mexican history following an election defined by continuing anti-corruption measures and radically cracking down on cartel activity which have destabilised large parts of Mexico for some time. Sheinbaum’s ability to address these concerns in a meaningful way will define her presidency. With potential to radically impact Mexico, Sheinbaum’s presidency is nonetheless paired for a US-Mexico relations shakeup, particularly with the election of President Trump. The pair have already butted heads on migration and tariffs. That being said, there are new opportunities for UK-Latin American relationships, with political leaders from relatively close political remits. However, as Keir Starmer has not received an invitation to the presidential inauguration, but Jeremy Corbyn has, what seems to be logical friendships may not play out as expected.

The European Union:

The European Parliament Elections in 2024 were the first to have taken place without UK MEPs elected to the European Parliament. The election was defined as a straight fight between nationalism and integration, with pro-EU centrists, social democrats and liberal conservatives fighting to resist nationalist Eurosceptic forces from the left and the right. Immigration was a defining issue in the elections, with migration policy central to several national campaigns, and right-wing parties leveraging fears of uncontrolled migration to gain voter support. That being said, few of these right to far-right groups were profoundly anti-EU this election, likely after having seen the fallout of the UK’s departure from the European Union. The EU’s internal cohesion (or lack thereof) remains under strain, with rising nationalist sentiment and rising leftist opposition to the status quo threatening unified responses to global challenges. This could complicate the bloc’s ability to project power on issues it is looking to be a global pacemaker for.

Iceland:

After a long list of global mega powers why does Iceland make the list?  In November 2024, Iceland held parliamentary elections which saw the Social Democratic Alliance surge to be the largest party, while all coalition partners dropped in the polls and in terms of number of seats. The party looks to go into coalition with the Liberal Reform Party, meaning two extremely pro-EU parties may form a coalition. This would likely lead to Iceland looking to ascend into the EU at a rapid rate, complicating European fishing laws, monetary union and migration on the continent.

In a dramatic year for global politics, the power of democracy nonetheless shone through, with over 3,500,000,000 people living in countries that held elections in 2024. In addition to those aforementioned, South Africa, Uruguay, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, Ireland, France, Portugal and many more held elections this year and have radically reshaped global power balances, and 2025 starts with a number of new governments, and more set to follow.