3D Printing Reaches Singularity

Singularity – “the point at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible”

Let the record state, 40 years after the invention of the first 3D Printer, 3D Printing has reached its point of Singularity.

I look now at the uses and applications for 3D Printing technology and see absolutely no way that growth in this sector slows down or decreases in any way.

In fact, quite the opposite is true, after years where the general feeling was that the capabilities of 3D Printing outpaced the requirements of the application, the tables have turned.

Falling machine prices, decreasing material costs, and rising material availability have combined to finally balance technology and application.

We are now at the point of Singularity, where technological growth is uncontrollable and irreversible.

Let me share with you the evidence I have seen in the industries which Sinterex plays in.

Industrial

When I first started Sinterex in 2017 I had never even seen a 3D Printer, let alone operated one, or even contemplated what was involved in running a 3D Printing business.

My motivation for jumping into this industry came from spending nearly 10 years looking at Supply Chains in the O&G industry. I understood that there was a real problem getting products and parts from where they are made to where they are needed.

3D Printing parts on-demand, where and when they are required was the answer!

However, the gap between the requirements of industry and the capabilities of the technology were vast.

Industrial part purchasers, particularly in the O&G industry, wanted big, strong, heavy things, typically made from metal.

3D Printing excelled at making small things, fine features, high precision, and was typically polymer.

Today, the requirements of part purchasers in the O&G industry have not fundamentally changed. They still by and large want big, strong, heavy things.

However, the value proposition of 3D Printing has radically changed.

Look at machine prices for example.

Around 5 years ago, a polymer 3D Printer capable of handling performance grade industrial materials such as PA12 or PA11 would have cost between $300,000 and $400,000.

Today, you can pick up a 3D printer for less than $5,000 and have a reasonable chance of producing acceptable industry worthy parts.

That’s a change in cost base of 60x!

Look at material availability.

Performance industrial metals and polymers used to be limited to performance 3D Printers. However, with improvements in material engineering, we can now extrude materials with Electrostatic Discharge properties, or photopolymerise materials which synthesize the properties of rubber.

Not only has the material availability changed but the entrance of more competitors has helped drive down prices.

The combination of rapid reduction in machine prices, failing material costs, and rising material availability means that 3D Printing is no longer reserved purely for prototyping and product development.

Today, 3D Printing is really a go-to choice for industrial parts with low order volumes, speciality materials, or short-lead times.

In the very near-term future, we can expect to see 3D Printing burst out of the constraints of low order volumes and compete on both price and lead-time for major manufacturing orders.

Accompanying the shift from prototyping and speciality parts to mainstream production will be a shift in the type of company purchasing 3D Printers.

Today, based on my experience of the UAE, 3D Printers are mostly purchased and operated by 3D Printing companies, whilst machine shops continue to mostly invest into subtractive manufacturing methodologies.

This polarisation is artificial and of no benefit to the end customer.

I expect to see, within the next three years, a significant increase in adoption of 3D Printing technology from machine shops – notably those who have already embraced digital manufacturing technologies.

Equally, for 3D Printing companies truly focussed on industrial applications, adding machining capabilities will enable more control of critical surfaces, product quality, and delivery timings.

To summarise this more succinctly; the future of industrial 3D Printing is hybrid – finding the optimal combination of additive and subtractive methodologies for a particular customer problem.  

Dental

Jumping back to the Sinterex story.

After finding that the gap between requirement and technology was too broad in the O&G industry, I pivoted, and looked instead for applications of 3D Printing that were proven internationally but not yet developed in the UAE.

This journey took me into the Dental sector. Not an industry which I knew much about, however one where we managed to get an initial paying customer, then a second, then a third etc…

The nature of the Dental industry lends itself perfectly to 3D Printing; each patient has a different physical requirement and needs a custom solution, the industry is high margin and technologically savvy, plus, is undergoing a major digital transformation.

We started with a metal 3D printer and a small DLP resin 3D printer. At the time there was not another metal printer within 1000km’s. Even the DLP resin printer was amongst the first in the UAE.

Today, while metal 3D printers are still relatively few and far between, resin 3D printing has become ubiquitous.

Again, machine costs are central to this.

Our Rapid Shape GmbH D20 3D Printer cost almost $40,000 in 2019. Today, the same quality of printer is available for $3,000 or less.

Or, you can choose not to pay anything and just commit to purchasing an amount of materials per month from companies such as HeyGears . To be clear, the 3D Printer has gone from being $40,000 to being “free”.

As a result, almost every dental laboratory has one or more 3D Printers. Many dental clinics also.

This rapid distribution of 3D Printing capacity and capabilities is putting massive pressure on companies which have developed ‘centralised’ business models.

Most notable of these is Invisalign.

Invisalign uses 3D Printing technology to manufacture clear aligners for the correction of orthodontic complaints. (Invisible braces to correct crooked teeth)

Invisalign developed and patented this technology building a huge, centralised, 3D Printing facility in Mexico and exporting their product all around the world.

With the expiration of Invisalign’s patents in 2017 and with 3D Printers becoming increasingly available, more and more new competitors have emerged offering local production with the benefit of faster service, cheaper products, and greater sustainability.

Today, our clear aligner system competes head-to-head with Invisalign. It takes us 3 days to deliver to customers vs 3 weeks for Invisalign. Our prices are around 50% cheaper and the results are just as good if not better!

Away from orthodontics and into prosthodontics, another key area of change is upon us.

Traditionally crown and bridges have been produced using 4 axis or 5 axis milling machines to mill out blocks of Zirconia. Today, Zirconia is on the cusp of being 3D Printed for crown and bridges, while Boston Micro Fabrication - BMF have developed an ultra thin 3D Printed veneer. These developments open up a market of millions of potential cases.

With 3D Printing central in orthodontics and on the verge of breakthrough in prosthodontics, it is impossible to consider a scenario where 3D Printing in the Dental industry diminishes or decreases in anyway. The only way is up.

Medical

Finally, over to medical, in my opinion the highest potential area of 3D Printing, however still one of the most frontier in its level of adoption.

The condition of 3D Printing in the Medical sector is best understood by contrast with the Dental industry.

Dentistry has adopted an approach where each patient has a unique solution made just for them and manufactured locally through a fragmented market of dental laboratories.

The Medical industry has, by and large, focussed on commoditised products, manufactured centrally, and held in inventory at the point-of-use.

For example, today, if you need a knee replacement, your surgeon will select the best approximate fit for you, and then you (not the implant) will be adjusted to make things work.

Contrast this with dentistry, where, if for example you need a new tooth, you are measured precisely, and then a new tooth is manufactured just for you.

It is intuitively obvious that it is deeply preferable to have a solution which is developed just for you vs one which is a ‘best fit’.

Industry leaders such as Stryker and Materialise who are designing and manufacturing patient specific implants, all have large, centralised 3D Printing centres. They are so booked out, that the lead times currently for delivery are between 10 to 12 weeks.

I expect these business to decentralise significantly within the next 3 to 5 years as they work to get closer to the end customers.

Some of the most exciting areas of technological development in 3D Printing are in the medical sector.

Companies like ROKIT Healthcare inc South Korea are working on truly space age stuff, using 3D Printing to create hyper-personalised organ regeneration products.

For example, 3D Printed Skin grafts are now in late stages of clinical trials. These are produced by taking a small amount of fat from a patient, mixing it with a printing scaffold, and running it off a 3D Printer.

These space-age applications of 3D Printing are just on the cusp of coming to commercial reality. Once commercialised they will penetrate into the medical industry and become more and more frequently used.

The Medical industry is only at the frontier stage of utilisation of 3D Printing technology, and this is a trend that will change massively in the mid-term future.

Conclusion

So let me bring this all together.

Here I’ve only looked at 3D Printing in three of the industries I am most familiar with.

Other markets such as aviation, automotive, and space are also rapidly adopting 3D Printing into their supply chains.

Even consumer giants Apple are evaluating whether future watches will have 3D Printed stainless steel frames.

For me, 3D Printing is crossing the singularity technology threshold because:

1.       Machine and material costs have fallen dramatically and changed the economic value proposition of additive manufacturing

2.       New 3D Printing materials are being developed which will increasingly enable additive manufacturing to compete with subtractive manufacturing

3.       New 3D Printing materials are being developed which are creating completely new applications in massive markets such as Dentistry and Medical

Let me hand over to Warren Buffet:

Sometimes it's not how fast you row your boat. It's how fast the stream is going.

The 3D Printing stream is about to become a river.