5 Big Questions About APEC

A special dispatch from FP's diplomacy and national security reporter, Robbie Gramer.

U.S.-China relations aren’t exactly cozy right now. There was the coronavirus pandemic, and the Trump era, and the trade disputes and the military saber-rattling and the spy scandals and the showdowns over Taiwan. And, of course, the whole spy balloon thing.

Despite the frosty ties, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are slated to meet each other this week in San Francisco, on the sidelines of the major Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. As Lili Pike writes for FP, the two haven’t met since November 2022, and for a painfully long period in between, China wasn’t picking up the phone when the United States tried to call—a fact that unnerved not only U.S. officials but other Western allies. 

As FP’s diplomacy reporter, I’ll be on the ground at APEC in San Francisco from tomorrow to watch the marathon of meetings between top leaders from 21 countries in the Pacific Rim. Here are the five big questions I’m looking to get answers to this week:

1. What constitutes a “win” for Biden? Both Biden and Xi are hungry to come out of APEC with some tangible wins. Biden needs to walk a narrow tightrope of dialing down U.S.-China tensions without appearing too soft on China—such is the politics of Washington these days. He will want to set up new lines of communication with China in the event of an emergency, seek assurances that China won’t lend Russia more aid in its war in Ukraine, and rally other Asia-Pacific countries to U.S. trade and diplomatic frameworks. In short, he wants to show Xi that the United States remains a top player in the region, despite the major crises in Israel and Ukraine.
2. What constitutes a “win” for Xi? Xi, meanwhile, is coming to APEC hoping to breathe new life into China’s ailing economy. He’ll seek reassurances that Biden has no plans to recognize Taiwan’s independence or undermine the “One China” policy, and that Washington won’t try to completely punch down China’s economy—even as the United States pursues punitive trade and export controls to reduce its overreliance on China in high-end tech and supply chains deemed critical to national security. 
3. Will the generals get to talking? After the spy balloon saga, China rebuffed a request for U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to speak to his Chinese counterpart. These direct military “hotlines” were seen as critical during the Cold War between U.S. and Soviet military commanders to prevent any mishaps or miscommunications from spiraling into an all-out war before it was too late. Now in the new cold war with China, Biden wants the Pentagon to reestablish military hotlines with Beijing. U.S. officials say this plan is in motion, and if it’s announced at APEC as expected, it could go a long way toward injecting some stability into the otherwise highly tense U.S.-China relationship. 
4. Is the trade stuff a real win or a mirage? A lot of seasoned diplomats have given Team Biden credit for strengthening the U.S. hand in the Asia-Pacific on the diplomatic front: Deepening trilateral ties with Japan and South Korea despite the tricky politics involved; starting the AUKUS initiative; revamping ties with Vietnam and the Philippines. But where they criticize Biden is on the trade front: The United States hasn’t joined the marquee regional trade pact, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP, a version of which then-President Donald Trump withdrew from. Biden is looking to bolster a new major trade initiative, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Thirteen countries have signed on alongside the United States so far, but behind the scenes some view it as more style than substance: IPEF has concrete ideas on climate, supply chain security, and tax issues, but it doesn’t address the bread and butter of traditional trade pacts: reducing tariffs and increasing market access. APEC offers the first signal of whether Biden can address these criticisms and turn IPEF into a major new trade pact. 
5. Will there be any news on Taiwan? Taiwan is the most sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations, and, most experts agree, the most likely flashpoint that could trigger an open conflict between the two world powers. China is hypersensitive to any change in the One China policy that would be viewed as reinforcing Taiwan’s sovereignty—whether it’s a few changed words in a diplomatic communique or Taiwan’s participation in international organizations. The United States, meanwhile, is likely to hammer home that it won’t undermine its One China policy but will continue to deepen military ties with Taiwan in a bid to deter any future Chinese plans to forcibly retake the island. Suffice it to say, any signals of change to the status quo on Taiwan from either side would be a very big deal. 

Follow along as I bring you all the developments from APEC, including a special edition of my weekly Situation Report newsletter from San Francisco on Thursday. Sign up for that here, and thanks for reading and supporting FP’s journalism.—Robbie Gramer

FP Live

Takeaways From Biden’s Meeting With Xi

Nov. 17 | 11 a.m. EDT

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have agreed to meet on the sidelines of the ongoing Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. What should the world expect from this meeting? What will Biden aim to achieve? Join FP Live for a post-APEC debrief with experts James Palmer, author of FP’s China Brief newsletter, Evan Medeiros, a former China policy advisor to former U.S. President Barack Obama, and Cindy Yu, an assistant editor at the Spectator and the host of its Chinese Whispers podcast. Register now. 

Will There Be a Wider War in the Middle East? 

On Demand

As Israel continues its war on Hamas, and as the number of civilian casualties in Gaza rises, neighboring countries are on edge. From Lebanon in the north to Yemen in the south, the regional ripple effects of the Israel-Hamas war are top of mind for two experts of the Middle East: Steven Cook, a columnist at FP, and Kim Ghattas, a Beirut-based journalist. Watch the on-demand video or read the Q&A. 

The Latest Israel-Hamas Coverage

This War Won’t Solve the Israel-Palestine Conflict: After all the death and destruction, the situation will be no closer to a resolution than it was before Oct. 7. By Steven A. Cook

The Middle East Has Locked Itself in a Slaughterhouse: The region is suffering from a precipitously brutal coarsening of its politics. By Hisham Melhem

The World Won’t Be the Same After the Israel-Hamas War: The Middle East’s latest war will have widespread geopolitical effects. By Stephen M. Walt

Is the U.S. Using All Its Leverage in Gaza?: Washington has influence and, with its allies, could shape an endgame that serves long-term U.S. interests. By Emma Ashford, Matthew Kroenig

Iran’s Proxies in Syria Move Toward Escalation With Israel: As Israel advances in Gaza, the intensity of the response by Tehran’s so-called axis of resistance will increase. By Kasra Aarabi, Jason M. Brodsky 

New and Noteworthy

Tensions in the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia and Eritrea put aside their differences to join forces against a common enemy in 2020. Since then, however, tensions have re-emerged between the two countries to the point of a potential war. How did they get here? What would regional implications look like if a conflict did break out? Are Ethiopia and Eritrea actually on the path to war? This analysis considers all of these questions and discourse from both sides. 

Disappearing Activists: A pair of environmental activists in the Philippines recently spoke out about their abduction by the military—and it seems like they are not alone. Current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has approached international relations in a more welcoming manner than his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, but his handling of domestic issues—like targeting activists—is much different. “Most activists still operate in a climate of fear,” according to this report. “Red-tagging by state authorities remains commonplace.” 

Restricting Russia: Since countries imposed export controls on Russia starting in February 2022, enforcement has been lagging. Recently, members of the international coalition, including the United States, the European Union, Britain, and Japan, coordinated and expanded their lists to 45 high-priority items that are highly susceptible to being diverted to Russia and its close ally, Belarus, for military production. “The focus on weapons supply chains has put export controls back on the list of Western priorities,” Maria Shagina writes, “echoing Cold War-era efforts to restrict the Soviet Union’s access to Western technology.”

Exercise Your Mind

Giant pandas departed from which U.S. zoo for China on Wednesday?

(A) The Smithsonian’s National Zoo

(B) Zoo Atlanta

(C) The San Diego Zoo

(D) The Bronx Zoo

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

From Around FP

Season 3 of The Catch: After two critically acclaimed seasons tracking the current state of global fishing, FP’s The Catch, produced in partnership with the Walton Family Foundation, returns with a new season today. This year, Ruxandra Guidi traveled to Norway to learn about the cod industry after previously exploring the squid industry for Season 1 and efforts to achieve a sustainable balance in the upper Gulf of California for Season 2. Catch up now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen, and look out for new episodes every Tuesday.

Space Simulations: Last week at the 2023 Paris Peace Forum, FP Analytics, Foreign Policy’s independent research division, convened leaders and experts to work through a research-based, interactive simulation that challenged participants to grapple with pressing governance, security, and sustainability challenges resulting from the rapid escalation of activity in space. The simulation was produced with support from Amazon and the Paris Peace Forum’s Net Zero Space Initiative. Learn more about FP PeaceGames and other FPA research on the final frontier.

Israel’s Economic Future: In his latest Chartbook newsletter, Adam Tooze reflected on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy of national security neoliberalism and how that has shaped Israel’s present-day economy. “Israel has more than enough financial resources to continue its extraordinarily destructive assault on Gaza for as long as it wants. If it needs to resort to deficit finance, it is in good stead to do that,” Tooze wrote. “The real question is, is Israeli society willing to pay the price of ongoing disruption?” 

Answer: A. The Smithsonian’s National Zoo. Giant pandas have been a fixture at the national zoo in Washington, D.C., for more than five decades. Their recall now comes at a time of heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing, FP’s Rishi Iyengar reported in August.