5G rollout – where it is today and where it could go next

Five and a half years after the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) froze functionality on the first release of 5G, it seems a good time to take stock of how 5G rollout is going.

Marcus Aurelius’s adage, ‘no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy’ seems particularly apt when it comes to transformational technology rollouts, and 5G is no exception.  

As with 3G and 4G before it, the complex realities of 5G rollout have tended to dampen the optimism of the original vision, sometimes creating a perception that the technology is failing to deliver on its promise.   

This article aims to get beyond this perception, by taking a measured look at the challenges that have faced 5G, assessing where the rollout has got to, and how developments in 5G technology might help it deliver its full potential. Based on this, it shares some thoughts around where 5G  rollout might go next.      

5G rollout drivers and headwinds 

The original primary driver for 5G was to deliver the next step improvement in cellular capability.  

Technology-led innovations such as the Internet of Things (IoT), virtual reality, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and autonomous vehicles, call for an exponential increase in cellular capacity and cell density to accommodate many more connected devices, along with much lower latency and higher bandwidth. 5G promised to deliver all these improvements.  

The technology has faced some significant headwinds since its first release in 2018.

·         The effects of the COVID pandemic inhibited development and growth in many areas, not least 5G rollout.

o   Fewer people on the streets meant less demand for cellular connectivity, as people in lockdown tended to rely more on fixed broadband connectivity like Wi-Fi.  

o   The pandemic severely limited the scope to advance key use cases for 5G, such as IoT and autonomous vehicles.

·         Supply chain challenges have had both direct and indirect impacts.

o   5G device and infrastructure production has been affected by component shortages.

·         Initiatives that depend on 5G, such as Industry IoT (IIoT), have lost some momentum as focus has switched to dealing with supply chain issues.  

·         Release of 5G spectrum and build-out of core network infrastructure has sometimes lagged behind the pace of device rollout, as highlighted in a May 2023 IEEE magazine article

How is 5G rollout really going?

From one perspective, and in spite of these challenges, 5G rollout is still outperforming its 3G and 4G predecessors.

The Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA)’s November 2023 market snapshot identifies that 578 operators in 173 countries and territories are investing in 5G. Of those, 300 operators in 114 territories have launched 3GPP compliant 5G services.

Statista reports that 5G subscriptions are forecast to increase from over 12 million to over 4.5 billion subscriptions between 2019 and 2028.

As a 2023 GSA press release concludes, “This momentum confirms 5G as the fastest generational roll-out, when compared to 3G and 4G.”

Yet there are still plenty of stories of disappointing 5G performance. A June 2023 Network Computing article asks ‘Is your 5G service slow? – Join the club’ , highlighting how median 5G performance is declining globally in many early launch markets. It points to attractive consumer pricing driving higher than expected demand, and lack of focus on building out sufficient core infrastructure in the rush to get 5G out to customers.

A 2020  McKinsey report, while it predates the COVID pandemic, still manages to summarize the issues that are likely driving 5G underperformance today, just as they affected 3G, 4G and Wi-Fi  

“For one, coordination across value chains is a critical challenge. Second, the potential value is fragmented across many use cases but lacking a clear aggregator to provide scale. In addition, incentives are often misaligned. The entity doing most of the heavy lifting of investment and implementation may not be the one who stands to benefit financially. Furthermore, many use cases introduce data complexities, in terms of privacy, security, and interoperability. Finally, deployment constraints in the form of regulatory barriers, capital availability, and long investment cycles are leading both connectivity providers and industry players to put upgrades on hold in many regions.”

So, the answer to the question, ‘How is 5G rollout really going?’ depends on one’s perspective. It can be regarded as doing better than expected, or worse than promised. What is clear is that it’s happening, and that it will continue to move ahead.  

5G technology advances

As 5G rollout continues, cellular technology continues to move ahead  

o   3GPP expect to freeze functionality on 5G Advanced Release 18 in early 2024, delivering significant improvements in coverage, positioning, multicast and broadcast, energy saving and security.  

o   A symbiotic relationship is developing between 5G and AI. While 5G is a key enabler for many AI applications, AI’s ability to deal with massive datasets and complicated variables can transform the efficiency of managing complex 5G networks.       

o   5G providers are enabling growth with innovations such as Ericsson's Spectrum Sharing and Huawei's Converged Transport Network

o   6G, the next generation of cellular technology, offering further step improvements in speed and capacity, is due to launch in 2030

While these advances may not always immediately realize their maximum potential, they are creating the connectivity capabilities a digital world increasingly demands.     

What’s the future for 5G?

Few would argue that 5G rollout has gone as smoothly as the most optimistic forecasts predicted. At the same time, the numbers strongly suggest that the rollout has built up significant momentum, and there’s no reason to see this slowing. 5G still appears to be on course to become the dominant cellular tech within the next few years.

Based on 3G and 4G rollouts, there is still the potential for a particular 5G innovation or use case to find traction and boost the rollout further, in the same way that 4G LTE accelerated 4G rollout.

For example, a functional advance like 5G Sidelink, which enables devices to communicate directly without the need for a base station, could bring the enterprise market more into the mix, and drive a more complete build-out of 5G infrastructure for better performance.  

Taken together, these factors suggest we may be seeing just the start of the 5G revolution.

What next?   

I’m keen to hear your thoughts on the future of 5G, and cellular technologies overall - reach out to me on LinkedIn, where I’ll be glad to continue the conversation.