After a Year of Middle East Turmoil, the Region Awaits More
As the Gaza war grinds on, and Israel invades Lebanon, a heightened direct confrontation between Iran and Israel also looms. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of how these events have affected countries across the region and what a still wider conflict could bring.
// On Our Radar
Gaza
A year after the Gaza war began, Israel launched a new ground operation in Jabaliya refugee camp Sunday, ordering three hospitals and civilians from the northern part of the strip to evacuate en masse, in a stated effort to dismantle Hamas. Militants in the strip fired five rockets into Israel the next day. Israeli airstrikes on a school turned shelter, which Israel claims targeted militants, killed at least 28 Palestinians Thursday. Crisis Group expert Tahani Mustafa says a ceasefire is imperative to end Gaza’s humanitarian crisis and defuse fast-rising regional tensions, particularly in Israel’s conflicts with Lebanon and Iran. The Palestinian death toll in Gaza stands at more than 42,000.
Mozambique
The ruling Frelimo party is expected to win Wednesday’s presidential and parliamentary elections after a tense campaign, with initial results anticipated within two weeks. The two main opposition leaders lodged accusations of fraud, with one of them, Venancio Mondlane, describing the election commission as "corrupt people, crooks, scoundrels" and claiming victory based on his party's own tally. Other major political figures called for calm. Nonetheless, says Crisis Group expert Nicolas Delaunay, longstanding frustrations with deep poverty, narrow democratic space and the Islamist insurgency in the north could escalate into unrest if the final results appear rigged.
Pakistan
On Saturday, authorities blocked access to the capital Islamabad and arrested more than 550 people from among thousands rallying in support of the jailed ex-prime minister, Imran Khan, who had said it was a “do-or-die moment” for his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party. A police officer was killed in clashes at the protest. On Tuesday, officials said they had charged Khan with attempted murder for inciting the violence that led to the officer’s death. Crisis Group expert Samina Ahmed says the new charges add to Khan’s legal challenges, which he argues are meant to sideline him politically.
You can find previous editions of On Our Radar here.
// On the Horizon
On the Horizon: October 2024 - March 2025
This edition includes entries on Myanmar, the South China Sea, Sudan and Yemen, sounding the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge in the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
// Publications
Israel Invades Lebanon: Precursors, Prospects and Pitfalls
Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon represents a major escalation of its conflict with Hizbollah, which has been building alongside the war in Gaza for a year. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Heiko Wimmen, David Wood and Mairav Zonszein analyse the situation and the stakes.
Now available in Arabic.
Dammed in the Mekong: Averting an Environmental Catastrophe
Hydropower, sand mining and other development projects are threatening the ecological balance in the Mekong basin and the livelihoods of its residents. Policymakers would better serve the public by anticipating the problems of over-exploiting the river than by reacting to the consequences.
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Inside Chinland: Picturing the Struggle for a Free Chin State
The mountainous, neglected Chin State in Myanmar has been the site of fierce clashes between the military junta and local resistance groups. Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey visited to gauge the impact on the local population and assess what might come next for the region.
On Israeli Apathy
By Mairav Zonszein, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Israel.
Originally published in The New York Times.
The 17 September Jihadist Attack in Bamako: Has Mali’s Security Strategy Failed?
On 17 September, jihadists launched an unprecedented assault on two highly sensitive sites in Bamako, the Malian capital. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Jean-Hervé Jézéquel analyses the significance of this event and its implications for the authorities and armed groups.
Now available in English.
Tunisia: High Risks around the Presidential Election
Tensions rose before Tunisia’s 6 October presidential election, with authorities having arrested many opposition figures and excluded several challengers to the incumbent Kaïs Saïed.
In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Michaël Ayari explains the stakes for the country’s stability.
Now available in Arabic.
// Podcasts
Can Either Trump or NATO Membership Help End the Ukraine War?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Lucian Kim about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent U.S. trip, battlefield dynamics in Ukraine and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims he can end the war.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
// Video
The Mekong’s Troubled Waters
In this video, affected communities and activists speak about how rapid development along the Mekong River is causing escalating harm to the region’s ecosystems.