The aftermarket in 2024: what to expect

The aftermarket has faced another year of challenging trading conditions, with a slowing economy and inflation continuing to hit drivers’ pockets.  

All the while, garages have had to continue to lean-in to the myriad challenges presented by the rapid evolution of vehicle technology and changing legislation.

Many of these trials will persist in one form or another in 2024. Here is my take on the three big trends that I think will shape the aftermarket next year.

Garages and bodyshops will need to accelerate their evolution to remain viable and sustainable

Ernest Hemmingway described how he went bankrupt as ‘Gradually. Then suddenly’, and I think this analogy applies to the situation the aftermarket could find itself in.

The businesses that invest in the skills and equipment needed to meet the future needs of new technology and new vehicles will be well-positioned to not only survive but to thrive in 2024 and beyond.

Those that don’t risk falling behind and finding themselves shifting from the mainstream into an ever-declining corner of the market. Until suddenly, it’s gone.

This covers not just EVs and hybrid vehicles, but tech that’s already commonplace in the vehicle parc, like ADAS.

As I’ve written previously, the data already tells its own story about the huge, missed opportunity for businesses in the aftermarket that don’t adapt to work with more sophisticated, cleaner vehicles.

We’ll be doubling down on our investment into training courses that can get workshops and their technicians accredited, including some which will be free of charge.

What’s at stake is the sustainability, in the broadest possible sense, of the independent aftermarket’s ability to trade.

The independent aftermarket will still need to fight for the right to repair and the right to connect

One of my highlights of 2023 was the release of the UK’s new motor vehicle block exemption order (MVBEO). It was a real win for the aftermarket, with nearly all our wishes addressed.

Sadly, we can’t rest on our laurels. It seems that nearly every other week I meet a customer who has faced some farcical barrier or other to repairing a customer’s vehicle.

We will continue to collate these stories as evidence of OEM breaches and bring them to the CMA so that it can enforce MVEBO to its fullest extent.

Aligned to this, we’ll be lobbying OEMs to improve access for parts manufacturers and technicians to enable the repair of EV batteries.

There are scandalous stories of whole vehicles being written off because of relatively minor damage to a battery, with OEMs saying the entire unit needs to be replaced when a fix could do. Major insurers are now getting twitchy about underwriting EVs as a result – and the situation is entirely avoidable.

I’ve met some amazingly innovative independent operators that have found work arounds to repair batteries. But it’s been done in spite of OEMs rather than with their support.

Then, there is the spectre of SERMI, which is coming into force in the EU – and Northern Ireland – imminently (it should have been this year, but it has been delayed).  In a nutshell, this will provide criminal background checks on technicians to in effect vet them for work on vehicle security systems.

While UK businesses might feel they don’t need to worry, the absence of a universal scheme like SERMI runs the risk of multiple OEMs introducing their own separate processes.

I praise the efforts of those in the industry that are working to get an equivalent but voluntary scheme off the ground in the UK. It shows the wonderful spirit of collaboration and depth of innovation in the aftermarket.

In time, I hope something with the teeth of mandatory legislation can emerge that captures all OEMs.  

Factors will come together for the common good

Congratulations to Sukpal Singh Ahluwalia and Steve Horne, both of course former colleagues of mine, on their deal to acquire GSF.

Their expertise and knowledge will be a huge asset to that business. Healthy competition pushes us all to continue to innovate and be better for our customers.

Environmental sustainability is part and parcel of this because it’s becoming yet another standard expectation for drivers.  

This is where we as factors can play an outsized role because most of the emissions a workshop or bodyshop is responsible for – beyond the heat and power of its premises – comes from the equipment, consumables and parts they use.

We’re making changes, both big and small, to every area of our operations to wring out as many savings in energy and resources as we can – from the packaging of our products to the to the energy efficiency of the tools and equipment we provide our customers. I’m sure others are too, and it will be great to share and learn from each other’s journeys.

With reference to the challenges posed by MVBEO, SERMI and EV batteries, as well as the pending outcome of the DfT’s MOT consultation, I look forward to the support of GSF and others as we fight for a sustainable future. There is a need for us all to act as the champions of independent garages and bodyshops in the face of legislative and market forces they cannot face alone.

As a reminder, we hope that some of the ill-informed, safety-threatening recommendations in the DfT’s original plan – like moving to a 24-month MOT testing regime – will be consigned to the scrapheap where they belong.

We saw what happened when the industry came together to challenge regulators on the future of block exemption and so need to keep that spirit of teamwork alive in 2024. Because we are much louder and more impactful together than as lone voices.