AI: 24 Forecasts for 2024

The speed at which artificial intelligence has developed over the past year has amazed even experts. This progress corresponds to nothing other than an exponential, and very soon even a super-exponential curve. The best-known exponential or S-curve was the silicon chip. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore recognized very early on that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18 to 24 months, while the chip price remains the same. Moore's Law, which Moore himself described as a self-fulfilling prophecy and not a law, still applies in broad terms 60 years later.

Even if progress seems slow at first, the curve shoots up very quickly. If the curve is plotted on a logarithmic scale, it becomes a straight line. Superexponential progress, on the other hand, also shows a curve on a logarithmic scale. The acceleration is accelerated.

Why does super-exponential progress and thus a curve on a logarithmic scale occur with AI? Because AI is the first technology created by humans to have the ability to improve itself. Where humans reach their limits, AI steps in.

Forecasts

What impact will this have and what can we expect from artificial intelligence in 2024? I divide my forecasts into three categories. Works and solutions created with AI; how AI itself is developing as a technology; what impact this will have on societies.

Category 1: Content and Solutions Created with AI

1. The first full-length movie created entirely with an AI will be released;
2. At least one AI-generated song will reach the top 10 in the charts;
3. Autonomous AI agents will become ubiquitous and will be used (consciously or unconsciously) by more than half of the Western population;
4. Swarms of drones controlled by AI will be deployed in current and future theaters of war in 2024;
5. Personal avatars and influencers will experience rapidly increasing popularity. The most popular of these will also be indistinguishable from real people;
6. The design of workpieces and products, as well as in architecture, will predominantly take place with the support of AI and each of us will use our first such AI-designed product;
7. The first robots with AI integration are becoming accessible: from cars to serving robots in restaurants, to care and factory robots;
8. A tidal wave of AI-supported scams and criminal activities will hit the public;
9. A significant scientific breakthrough thanks to the use of AI will open up new possibilities for mankind in medicine, chemistry, climate change and energy supply. A Nobel Prize will be awarded for this in a few years' time;

Category 2: Expected Development of AI

1. The first capable voice models will run entirely on a smartphone and similar mobile devices without being connected to a server;
2. The first language models with the capability of GPT-4 will require up to a third less data for training;
3. The integration of AI (perception, control, strategy proposal and selection, decision...) is beginning in all weapon types;
4. Even in 2024, AI detectors will not be able to recognize AI-generated content with a probability that goes beyond chance;
5. Prompts will shift from today's dominant text instructions to more and more multimodal ones (sound, voice, image, video, 3D model, including gestures);
6. The GPU/TPU shortage will decrease, with many new chips for specific, narrow AI applications;
7. Hallucinations will decrease significantly;
8. On the one hand, language models will come closer to collapse due to the growing proportion of AI-generated content in the training data, and on the other hand, due to a better understanding of the effects of guard rails, their output will be qualitatively less volatile;
9. Superintelligence or Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will not exist in 2024 or for many years to come;

Category 3: Effects on and Reactions of Societies

1. Employees in interface functions, such as support, information, securities and commodities traders, or translators will experience drastic job losses;
2. By the end of 2024, the majority of generated media content will have been produced in part or in full by AI;
3. The upcoming election campaigns in the USA, Germany, Austria, India and many other countries around the world will be massively influenced by deepfakes. In at least one election, the outcome is decided by an AI-generated deepfake;
4. Adjudication of the first court cases on copyright, data protection, etc. under various AI Acts (EU, USA, Japan, China), mostly in favor of AI and AI companies;
5. The first companies will go bankrupt, blaming their failure on the failure to use AI in their processes;
6. A third of all authorities in Western countries will deploy at least one AI-based application;

Is something still missing? Let me know in the comments.

I have already talked about some of the expected further developments in AI, such as autonomous AI assistants, not only in several blogs, but also in my book Kreative Intelligenz, which was published a month ago. Read more here:

KREATIVE INTELLIGENZ

Über ChatGPT hat man viel gelesen in der letzten Zeit: die künstliche Intelligenz, die ganze Bücher schreiben kann und der bereits jetzt unterstellt wird, Legionen von Autoren, Textern und Übersetzern arbeitslos zu machen. Und ChatGPT ist nicht allein, die KI-Familie wächst beständig. So malt DALL-E Bilder, Face Generator simuliert Gesichter und MusicLM komponiert Musik. Was erleben wir da? Das Ende der Zivilisation oder den Beginn von etwas völlig Neuem? Zukunftsforscher Dr. Mario Herger ordnet die neuesten Entwicklungen aus dem Silicon Valley ein und zeigt auf, welche teils bahnbrechenden Veränderungen unmittelbar vor der Tür stehen.

Erhältlich im Buchhandel, beim Verlag und auf Amazon.

This is an article originally posed on Techno | Phil | oSoph.