AI and our managers

In 2016, "How Artificial Intelligence Will Redefine Management" by Vegard Kolbjørnsrud, Richard Amico, and Robert J. Thomas presented a bold vision for the future of management in the age of AI. Fast forward to 2024, and many of their predictions have come to fruition, though some have taken unexpected turns. Their forecast of AI transforming managerial work has largely materialized, yet the pace and depth of change in specific areas have varied.

AI's Impact on Administrative Tasks

The authors accurately predicted that AI would take over many administrative tasks. Today, AI-driven software manages scheduling, report generation, and routine coordination in industries ranging from healthcare to retail. Tools like natural language generation (as exemplified by Narrative Science) and RPA robotic process automation have become widespread, reducing the burden on managers to manually compile reports and manage data. These innovations have not only freed up managers but have also increased operational efficiency across organizations, confirming the authors' expectations.

The Role of Judgment Work

The emphasis on human judgment, creativity, and ethical decision-making that Kolbjørnsrud, Amico, and Thomas outlined remains crucial. However, the integration of AI into judgment-based work has been more collaborative than initially anticipated. AI now offers real-time insights, predictive analytics, and data interpretation that support, rather than replace, managerial decision-making. While the human capacity for creativity and strategic thinking remains irreplaceable, AI assists managers in exploring complex scenarios and making more informed decisions. As the authors stated, and that yours truly keep repeating on this platform, AI has not overshadowed human judgment but has complemented it in significant ways.

Treating AI as a Colleague

The 2016 article suggested that managers would need to work with AI as a partner rather than a competitor, and this is more and more what we see today. In 2024, AI is not just a tool but a collaborative "colleague" that provides decision support, risk assessments, and performance predictions. Companies like Kensho Technologies have made AI systems integral to decision-making processes, showing how AI augments managers' capabilities by rapidly analyzing data and presenting key insights. AI's role as an always-available advisor is now commonplace in many industries.

Creativity and Design Thinking

While Kolbjørnsrud and his co-authors highlighted the need for managers to embrace creativity and design thinking, the integration of these skills has proven to be even more essential than they imagined. With AI handling much of the routine and data-driven tasks, human creativity has become a key differentiator in leadership. Managers today must not only foster creativity in their teams but also constantly rethink processes, products, and strategies to stay competitive in an AI-enhanced market. This shift aligns with the authors' predictions but has expanded beyond individual creativity to encompass broader organizational innovation.

Social Skills and Networking

One area where the authors’ predictions were slightly conservative is the importance of social skills and networks. As AI has taken over much of the data analysis and administrative burden, the demand for managers to excel in emotional intelligence, relationship-building, and collaborative skills has skyrocketed. In 2024, successful managers are those who can effectively leverage both AI systems and human networks to drive innovation, foster collaboration, and lead diverse teams. The social skills the authors identified as essential have become even more critical in today’s landscape.

Conclusion: 2024's View of 2016 Predictions

Looking back from 2024, it's clear that the predictions in "How Artificial Intelligence Will Redefine Management" largely hit the mark. AI has transformed the managerial role, automating routine tasks and enhancing decision-making, while also making human qualities like judgment, creativity, and social skills more valuable than ever. However, the shift has been even more profound than Kolbjørnsrud, Amico, and Thomas anticipated. Managers now lead in a world where AI is not just a tool but an indispensable partner, and the skills required to thrive have evolved accordingly.

The authors were correct in identifying that managers should not fear AI, but instead should embrace it as a way to augment their capabilities.

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