As AI Remakes the Casino Environment, Can the “Live Dealer” Survive?

As AI Remakes the Casino Environment, Can the “Live Dealer” Survive? 

For much of human history, it was never entirely clear what impact of major new technologies would be. For every writer or scientist who imagined a future fairly similar to what actually came to pass, there were a seemingly infinite number of others who were wildly--sometimes gloriously--off-base. The astronomer William Pickering once opined that airplanes would never serve a commercial role--that is, they would never carry paying customers or freight from one side of the globe to the other. Pickering believed, perhaps not unreasonably, that aircraft big enough to fill a commercial role would be too slow, too heavy, and too expensive to be commercially viable. Popular magazines at the time agreed, predicting that the role of the airplane would be almost entirely recreational. Families would take their personal “flying machines” out on weekends for little trips across the countryside--but as to the notion that they would change society forever, that was mere fantasy. 

Today, of course, enormous jumbo jets rule the skies, while “flying for fun” remains very much a niche activity. 

This is meant to illustrate that new technologies rarely pan out the way their biggest supporters--and their biggest detractors--expect. 

Wreaking Havoc...or Simply Fulfilling its Promise? 

In key respects, however, AI is different. We know, and have long known, how AI will be used--at least initially. The power of the technology to replace vast numbers of human workers in one fell swoop has long been blindingly obvious. And indeed, the changes we’ve seen so far largely validate even the earliest predictions of AI’s impact. Millions of low-skilled workers around the globe have already lost their jobs, particularly in manufacturing and the service sector, and tens of millions more are set to follow shortly. 

Tremendous controversy has surrounded AI-driven ride-sharing apps like Uber and Lyft, which have decimated the taxi industry, but sooner rather than later the human equation will be removed entirely and robots will be doing the driving. And the trucking industry--one of the few industries left in which men and women without a college diploma can make decent money--will inevitably gravitate to lower-maintenance machines to guide their vehicles. After all, machines never tire. They never need breaks or time off. They may need occasional maintenance but they certainly don’t require health care coverage--or training--or anything that human workers typically require to do their jobs properly. Why wouldn’t you replace your driver--weathered and crusty with possible penchant for stimulants--with a robot who does the same job better, faster and cheaper? 

The Human Element: AI’s Challenge

This is exactly the question the casino industry, online and offline, is currently pondering. When it comes to gambling, “the house always wins” because owners and operators exploit a deeply-nuanced understanding of mathematical probabilities and human behavior; and they institute and maintain a culture of strict security and conformity that is highly-reminiscent of major financial institutions. And yet casinos have also relied since their inception on human beings--and it’s the been the panoply of very attractive women and sharp-eyed men who’ve help to sustain the casino industry’s image of exoticism and danger. Without the typically smiling, occasionally menacing, expressions of live dealers and floor staff, what exactly is a casino? It’s their people, in the end, who give them their aura. And it’s their people that ensure order is maintained and that the games are fair. Live dealers offer tips to first-time players, they watch out for cheaters, and they set expectations--and a tone--that benefit all players and casual observers. 

On my first trip to the casino in the Caribbean in the late 1990s, I was drawn to a lovely local dealer whose beauty and skill seemed equally boundless. She offered me some advice about blackjack that’s fundamental, but which I didn’t know at the time: first, never play a game that pays 6:5--stick to games that pay the full 3:2; and second, always split aces and eights. I ended up losing some money, but probably less than I would have lost otherwise. And I got to spend a few minutes with a lovely young woman who had no choice but to answer my ridiculous questions. Absent her presence, I likely would have avoided the table--and maybe the casino. In short, the human element persuaded me to stay and spend, and that experience, and many similar experience since, leave me dubious that any machine could be as skillful or as charming in persuading me to part with my money. 

And yet the casino industry is being re-organized from top to bottom, courtesy of AI, in ways that could threaten live dealers’ role going forward. From AI-driven surveillance systems and security features to predictive technologies and interactive “bots,” casino owners and operators are rushing to exploit AI for many of same reasons that AI is coming to dominate so many other areas of the economy: efficiency, reliability and cost savings. However “colorful” individual human beings can be in a casino environment--and some can be very colorful--robots are just easier. 

And this explains why casino games increasingly feature all the traditional elements of casino gambling - tables, dice, cards, and spinning wheels - but lack the human dealers that make gambling, as portrayed in films like Casino Royale and Ocean’s Eleven, such a memorable experience. Increasingly, virtual, streaming games--set inside real-world casinos--rely on AI-driven programs to mimic the behaviors, some quite subtle, of real-life dealers. Not all casinos have adopted the technologies in full, but most have dipped their toes in the water. Blackjack, roulette, craps, baccarat, and video poker are the games most likely to feature elements of AI, including virtual dealers.                                                                                                                                                                                                            

For me, however pleasant and convenient (and seamless) it might be to interact with a machine, the experience lacks the romance and mystery - and unpredictability - of face-to-face encounters between real human beings. 

Better Machines: Revolution...or Evolution?

But for the casinos, romance and mystery are not the chief objective. That would be profit. And it’s not like they’re newbies when it comes to exploiting the power of AI-based machines. Some are having massive success with self-serve bar towers - designed to reduce the pressure on bartenders and cocktail servers who have to deal with a never-ending stream of orders. And increasingly, AI is being leveraged to determine exactly which players are deserving of free drinks and other benefits - and when. Caesar’s for example has invested heavily in such monitoring systems. The resulting increase in efficiency is a direct result of the fact that servers are no longer forced to make subjective judgments about who to serve and when. When players wager enough money, drinks come as a matter of course. The process is seamless. 

AI is also able to process betting amounts and numbers of hands played much more easily than pit bosses--two calculations that also go into deciding which players receive perks and when. Pit bosses only have time to briefly assess how much (and how often) a player is betting before they have to move onto the next table. AI-based technologies can assess a large number of players simultaneously, mapping patterns that they then use to make comp decisions. 

The same technologies are being used by the major casinos to monitor guests in their own suites. Robots at this very moment are rolling down corridors and notifying guests electronically that their extra blanket or bar of soap is waiting outside their door. 

Other big casinos in Nevada and elsewhere have begun using AI-based robots to beef up their security teams. The Grand Sierra Resort and Casino in Reno recently purchased a Knightscope K5 Autonomous Security Robot (ASR) with 360-degree view cameras, two-way communication, thermal imaging and an emergency call button. Current (human) security staff have apparently christened the addition “Jackbot.”

And casinos are looking to jump on the autonomous vehicle bandwagon too. Most are expecting to purchase fleets of such vehicles to ferry around their VIPs. Needless to say, the shift away from human drivers, once the purchases are made, will be extremely rapid. 

Casinos, in short, have long been growing increasingly comfortable with advanced technologies and machine learning and full-blown AI. It stands to reason that if machines can prepare drink orders and monitor players at the tables - and also prowl the grounds, replace the soap, and drive VIPs to and from the airport - they have the ability to run complex games of chance without help from human beings. 

Paradise Entertainment in Macau has already developed a robot dealer prototype with the ability to manage card games and also play against other players. At the moment, the robot can only deal with cards, but efforts are underway to improve the technology and have the robot recognize the faces of players and speak several languages, mastering small talk in the process. Meanwhile, Hanson Robotics--based in Hong Kong--has developed an interactive robot with movable facial features and significant conversational prowess. The robot will soon be able to laugh, the company reports, and congratulate players when they win. 

Without question, these and other technologies will be combined in very short order in a prototype that will begin to make its way onto the floor of the world’s major casinos. But immediate change is unlikely, something that gives live dealers time to prepare for the change. The fact is, most gamblers continue to value the human element of casinos. People generally don’t mind if their taxi driver--or their waiter--is reticent by nature. But casino-going is looked up as an “experience,” and Las Vegas and other centers of gambling remain top tourist destinations for exactly this reason. Robots, for the moment, lack the personality and verbosity to take over the gaming tables overnight. As a result, the transition from “live” dealer to automated dealer is likely to be slower than is often suggested. 

It’s true that many casinos will be incentivized to adopt the technology as soon as possible. The pressure to maximize efficiency and profitability will be irresistible. But some casinos--probably the smaller players--will be similarly incentivized to wait until the bugs are worked out and prices drop. At the same time, casino employee unions (the UAW among them) are also likely to raise a major fuss as machines gain more and more of a foothold on the casino floor. They’re likely to put obstacles in the way of wholesale change. 

What Isn’t Known

And yet the biggest question is not whether casino will introduce AI-driven robot dealers (we know they will). The fundamental question is whether players will accept robot dealers. If most casino patrons gamble for fun - as statistics show they do, overwhelmingly - then the question can be reduced even further: do robot dealers add to, or subtract from, players’ experience of the game they’re playing? Can a robot dealer - perhaps in the form of a single mechanical arm and a single metal “hand” - generate and sustain an atmosphere in which players want to keep gambling? Perhaps, after enough time passes, and electronic dealers come to resemble human dealers more fully, acceptance will come. Also, as younger gamblers - more comfortable with AI - fully-supplant an older generation of patrons, perhaps the question itself will become moot. 

Live dealers, in short, are likely to remain employed for some time to come. Their long-term fate appears certain, but the technology necessary to replace them isn’t quite “there” yet. In a decade, however, finding a live human dealer inside a major casino could prove a task worthy of a “Mission Impossible” adventure. 

In short, change is here and casinos will never be the same again. We know, with near-absolute certainty, how AI is going to alter the experience of casino gambling forever. Yet, within the casino environment, change won’t be linear. It will instead proceed in fits and starts, with rapid change giving way to obstacles and challenges that must be overcome before additional advances can occur. This will give all of us the chance to prepare ourselves fully for the change--something that human beings have rarely had the opportunity to do when confronted by ground-breaking technology. Let’s be sure that all of us who love gambling, and who value the casino experience, take advantage of this unprecedented opportunity.