Is Al-Shabab's Involvement in the Somalian Government Army a Concern?

In a LinkedIn newsletter titled "Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt agreed to file for the help of al-Shabab to fight Ethiopia," I wrote about the hidden central discussion of the meeting held in Asmara. Many meetings were held before October 10, 2024, to discuss Ethiopia's relationship with the three nations: Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt. This meeting was significant and changed the trajectory of Somalia, entering into devastatingly violent and unknown territory. The frequent remarks of the Somalian leaders accepting Al-Shabab as a solution for the outstanding problem in Somalia is a disregard for the devastation Al-Shabab inflicted on the people of Somalia and East Africa. The cooperation of Egypt and Eritrea accepting the skim as an alternate propelled the trajectory for peaceful and untitled Somalia in the opposite direction. The Summit in Asmara confirmed the new players and participants in leading the game's direction, including Al-Shabab. The Summit nullified the last gain of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) as irrelevant and counterproductive. The three leaders agreed that members of ATMIS were enemies of the Somalian people. Thus, the Asmara summit raised more questions than solutions.

Questions

Eritrea and Egypt have no history of fighting Al-Shabab anywhere. The opposite is true in both countries, where sympathizers of Al-Shabab contributed material and political support early on in its inception. Is the context of their relationship the same?

Eritrea and Egypt have never declared Al-Shabab a terrorist organization, and there is no record of the two countries' condemnation of the organization. Why not?

Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia agreed that Al-Shabab is a friend of the people of East Africa.

What behavior has Al-Shabab changed for the three leaders to come to that conclusion?

The international Community, the UN, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) are engaged in war with Al-Shabab. Did the three leaders share their rationale for changing any of the strategies with this organization?

The three countries highlighted their discussions on security cooperation in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandab Strait and acknowledged these maritime routes' 'critical importance.' They categorically oppose the trend of Ethiopia's fast economic development as a potential threat to their national interest. Egypt and Eritrea have both been at odds with Ethiopia over access to the Red Sea. Egypt wants to deny Ethiopia Red Sea naval access so that Ethiopia cannot threaten Egypt's Red Sea rents in the far future; Eritrea is still digesting the port of Assab that rightfully belonged to Ethiopia. Egypt has also been against Ethiopia over its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project since 2011. Generally, the three countries' economies heavily depend on water and other natural resources within the Ethiopian territory. They claim Ethiopia should abandon the right to develop its resources in any form to advance its economy, further confirming outsiders' perceived dominance for ages.

Egypt continues labeling the GERD an existential threat that will degrade its Nile water supply, but there is no evidence supporting its claim. Still, the Egyptian government continues to demand that Ethiopia relinquish all the rights to use Abay in development projects essential for the existence of its people. Eritrea is currently inside the Ethiopian territory due to the recent war between TPLF and the Ethiopian Defense Force. It claims self-created protection of its borders from Ethiopian militias in the aftermath of the war. Eritrea views TPLF as a threat to its borders and internal cohesion. However, Eritrea is not afraid of Tigray but afraid of its citizens fleeing due to the deterioration of the situation at home. Thus, Eritrea sealed its border against the will of its people, who looked forward to relief by running to Ethiopia. There are thousands of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia. Without any evidence, Eritrea views the 2022 Pretoria peace deal that ended the Tigray war as dangerous to national security because the agreement allowed the TPLF and its fighters to survive. Eritrea planned to disseminate the population of Tigray as a competing rival to the rich resources of the Southern part of Ethiopia, the core of the conflict between Eritrea and Tigray after the liberation war against the Derg regime. Eritrea considers the peaceful coexistence of the people of Tigray with their brothers in Ethiopia to threaten their survival, and they maintained a military presence in Ethiopia in early 2024. The fact is that Tigray remains a region in the sovereign state of Ethiopia.

The leaders Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia claim to be developing to counter Ethiopia if it follows through on its port deal with Somaliland, and the activities of the leaders themselves are counterproductive for Somaliland. The people of Somaliland are enjoying a relatively calm life compared to Somalia in Mogadishu. There is no loud Al-Shabab activity in Somaliland. The people of Somaliland lead better lives than their brothers and sisters in Somalia. Somaliland's declaration of independence from Somalia in 1991 commenced the semi-autonomous nation's subsequent struggle to gain recognition as a sovereign state from the international community. The fight for independence from mainland Somalia, which started during the civil war, persisted over two decades, trying to recapture the country's democratic gains before the unification that reinforced the distinction between it and greater Somalia. Over the past decade, Somaliland's political groups and civil organizations continued to work with local stakeholders to incorporate democratic principles into a culture characterized by an intricate and deeply rooted clan system. Unlike the disunited Somalia, Somaliland's democratic work of civil and political organizations has grown increasingly dynamic as the country's political space has improved.

Today, through its hard work, Somaliland has demonstrated to other Africans that you do not have to be rich to be democratic. Despite a tiny national budget, challenging geography, and hostile climate, Somaliland has shown the way for other Africans to follow the peaceful coexistence of people to form a stable statehood. Former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo has described Somaliland's progress in 2019 as a place that has made something out of virtually nothing.

Why do the three leaders assume that the peaceful and peace-loving people of Somaliland mix into the volatile situation of Somalia? Who has the right to decide the fate of the people of Somaliland? Al-Shabab and Al-Sisi or Af-Worki. . None of these leaders represent the people of Somaliland. They need to balance the scorecard for their people before calling the shot to those beyond their reach.

In the recently held summit, Somali and Eritrean presidents held a separate meeting before the summit. They discussed the need to bolster cooperation to maintain "the sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence, and unity of Somalia," according to the Eritrean information ministry. The Egyptian, Eritrean, and Somali presidents similarly stressed "the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries in the region" in a joint statement. This rhetoric mimics Somalia's repeated failure to register in the minds of the people of Somaliland. They rejected that assertion of being a part of Somalia and preferred to be addressed as Somaliland. They maintained the title status for more than thirty years now. In addition, President Afeworki of Eritrea should not forget that Eritrea played a significant role in funding and arming Al-Shabab early on at its inception. Al-Shebab was and remains the main force that disabled the territorial integrity of Somalia. The government of Eritrea refused to allow the Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group (SEMG) inspectors to visit Eritrea, limiting the scope of its investigations on Eritrea's current government involvement in their role in helping Al-Shebab. Eritrea, by arming, Al-Shabab participated in the massacre of many Somalians, including the people of Somaliland and Somali-Ethiopians. As a result of this action, Eritrea remains subject to U.N. Security Council (UNSC) sanctions that started in December 2009 due to past evidence of support for al-Shabaab and other activities that have contributed to regional instability. Eritrea continues arming and training to destabilize neighboring nations. Thus, Eritrea should first win the international community's thrust before embarking on peacekeeping activities in the global arena. There are many open fronts to discuss the Eritrean government's integrity in keeping up with the welfare of its citizens. The international community needs to divert its attention to assess and explore the extent of abuse by the Eritrean government and the citizens of Eritrea in a very tight, closed border.

Since 2005, Ethiopia has been pivotal in helping Somalia achieve stable statehood, peace, and stability. It has also been an indispensable partner in the fight against Al-Shebab. Thanks to Ethiopia and other contributing American countries, Somalia turned from a failed state status to state-building efforts and fostering regional cooperation. Ethiopia's defense force and defense forces from different African countries have made the ultimate sacrifice in Somalia to restore its fragile peace and stability, enabling its leadership to establish a government structure after decades of civil war.

Ethiopia's contribution to peacekeeping missions in Somalia has been essential for Somalia and regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia has a direct interest in fighting Al-Shabab and terrorist organizations. Recently, Ethiopia fought against Al-Shabab and other terrorist organizations whose main base is situated in Somalia. As a founding member and critical troop contributor to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), Ethiopia has been at the forefront of the fight against al-Shabaab and other extremist groups. For nearly two decades, Ethiopian troops have partnered with Somali forces to liberate towns and cities from the grip of terrorists, making the final sacrifices to stabilize the country. So, the sacrifice of Ethiopian soldiers to the cause of peace in Somalia has been immense.

The newly born actors in the peacekeeping mission Egypt joined in Somalia have started warnings about the port deal and have postured against Ethiopia militarily. The UK-based outlet al Araby al Jadid reported in September 2024 that Ethiopia sent a backchannel message to Egypt via Djibouti that "any Egyptian military forces that harm Addis Ababa's interests in Somalia will not be immune from dealing with them." Egypt reportedly responded that "it is ready to escalate and respond forcefully to any attempt to harm the Egyptian presence in Somalia or Somali interests, in implementation of the military protocol signed with Mogadishu."

The recent increase in Egyptian-Somali military covert operations, disguised as combating al-Shabaab while threatening Ethiopia, is being completely uncovered. Egypt's foreign ministry spokesperson said in late September that its arms shipments aimed to support Somalia in "combating terrorism and preserving its sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity."  However, the destination of shipped armament and composition of the make of the armament proved the detail to be otherwise. Since the armament's arrival, Al-Shabab was roaming the capital, Mogadishu, with little or no opposition from the government or the Egyptian army.  There is intelligence information leaking that Al-Shabab is making a back-door deal to receive armament to fight against the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). In a secret agreement

between Egypt and Somalia, the agreed objective suggested the arms shipment from Egypt was at least, in part, meant to counter Ethiopia's port deal with Somaliland. CTP previously noted that some of the arms Egypt has sent, hefty weaponry such as anti-tank and antiaircraft artillery, are meant for use against Ethiopia, as al-Shabaab lacks the capabilities to warrant such weaponry. In September, The Somali foreign minister threatened to establish contact with insurgents in Ethiopia if Ethiopia followed through on its port deal with Somaliland. A recent Ethiopian government news leak confirmed that the arrangement of establishing contact with rebels inside of Ethiopia is underway. Egypt and Eritrea are funding and providing political cover to opposition media. Eritrea has open centers to recruit and train Ethiopian opposition into a fighting force inside Eritrea.

Most activities by the Somali government, coordinated by Egypt and Eritrea, shed light on the recent covert content of the three leaders' discussion in Asmara. The three leaders agreed to enroll and arm Al-Shebab to fight the Ethiopian army's contingent in Somalia.

On May 10, 2024, Somalia asked the United Nations to terminate its political mission in the country, which has been assisting the government in bringing peace and stability in the face of attacks by the al-Qaida-linked extremist group al-Shabab. Recently, Somali officials have asked the United Nations to terminate its political mission in the country, which has been assisting the government in bringing peace and stability in the face of attacks by the al-Qaida-linked extremist group al-Shabab. In a letter to the Security Council and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi (A previous Al-Shebab member and sympathizer) said the decision followed "a thorough consideration of our strategic priorities."

On January 13, 2024, President Hassan Sheikh of Somalia addressed Al-Shabaab's perception as an enemy. President Hassan Sheikh asserted that Al-Shabaab was no longer the primary foe of Somalis. He declared, "Two years ago, it is here where I announced that Al-Shabaab was the only enemy, but now I say Ethiopia is the enemy." He said, "Nobody should deceive you by claiming Ethiopia will liberate your land from Al-Shabaab. Do not consider Al-Shabaab as your enemy; there is no other Somali who should be seen as an enemy to fellow Somalis," President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud emphasized, urging unity and encouraging Al-Shabaab as fellow countrymen to fight the peacekeeping force of Ethiopia. The following activities confirm that all three leaders at the summit in Asmara agreed to train and arm Al-Shabab.

Thanks to the recent agreement of the leaders of Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, who gave the green light to Al-Shabab's help to fight ATMIS, Al-Shabab will resurrect and become a decisive force based in Somalia to fight not only Ethiopia but also coordinate its efforts with other terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda. The three leaders discussed the secret strategy of filing Al-Shebab into the central force fighting Ethiopia, which is in progress. However, all three leaders agree that Al-Shebab is no longer the primary enemy and should be war-ready to fight the African Armey in the country, especially the Ethiopian Armey. The recent shipment of arms from Egypt, without solid security, encouraged Al-Shebab to take a free ride for the grab as the new strategy disguising the actual motive of the three leaders.

On October 29, 2024, Somalia declared an Ethiopian diplomat working in Mogadishu a non-gata to annoy the Ethiopian Government heavily into submission. In a statement issued on Tuesday, Somalia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the diplomat of engaging in "activities incompatible with his diplomatic role." The diplomat, Ali Mohamed Adan, a counselor at Ethiopia's embassy in Mogadishu, was ordered to leave Somalia within 72 hours of receiving the notice. Of course, nowadays, working against Al-Shabab is an activity that is incompatible with a diplomatic role because Al-Shabab is upgraded as a part of the patriotic front fighting the enemy. The Somali government has rejected Ethiopia's participation in the coming African Peace Keeping Force by allowing the newcomer Egypt to replace Ethiopia. Egypt and Eritrea are compromised subjects to Al-Shabab. The motive of the three governments is to work in tandem with a terrorist organization with Al-Shabab and the like. Many countries in East Africa have experienced unprecedented harsh incidents by these terrorist groups. All African states have the obligation and mandate to keep the continent from the spread of Al-Shebab. Ethiopia has a double duty and responsibility to keep its army on standby, reducing and eliminating Al-Shabab and other terrorists within Somalia and elsewhere in the Horn of Africa. The current government of Somalia is compromised to the base, and their decision to deal with any terrorist organizations should be questioned and evaluated by the African Union and the UN. The UN should determine the action of the Governments of Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea regarding their secret negotiation with Al-Shabab and the covert operation of Arming terrorist organizations in the Horn of Africa.