AMR Future Brief| Launching of Fuel Cell EVs

The advent of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) represents a transformative chapter in the journey toward sustainable transportation. The fuel cell technology has emerged as a promising alternative due to increase in need to reduce carbon emissions, dependency on fossil fuels, and the limitations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The technology offers long ranges, quick refueling times, and zero tailpipe emissions. This paper explores the technology behind FCEVs, the challenges & opportunities associated with their launch, the current state of the market, regulatory support, and the role of public perception. Through this examination, we provide a comprehensive overview of the critical factors impacting the adoption and potential success of FCEVs. 

With the transportation sector contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, the adoption of sustainable, zero-emission vehicles has become crucial for governments and industries globally. FCEVs use hydrogen as a primary fuel source to generate electricity through a chemical reaction, emitting water vapor and heat as byproducts. Unlike BEVs that require lengthy charging times, FCEVs refuel in minutes, making them a viable alternative for heavy-duty applications and long-distance travel. 

While FCEVs offer significant benefits such as high energy efficiency and reduced emissions, challenges such as high cost of fuel cells, limited refueling infrastructure, and hydrogen production methods remain substantial. This paper evaluates these factors and examines the potential impact of FCEVs on global mobility and sustainability. 

Introduction to Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 

The propulsion system of FCEVs is similar to electric vehicles (EVs), where energy stored as hydrogen is converted to electricity by the fuel cell. Unlike conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, FCEVs do not produce harmful tailpipe emissions and help to strengthen the economy. 

FCEVs are fueled with pure hydrogen gas stored in a tank in the vehicle and they refuel within minutes, offering a driving range of more than 300 miles. FCEVs are equipped with advanced technologies to increase efficiency, such as regenerative braking systems that capture the energy lost during braking and store it in a battery. Major automobile manufacturers are currently offering limited models of FCEVs for the public, in response with the supporting ability of the developing infrastructure. 

Technological Overview of the Working of FCEVs 

The most common type of fuel cell for vehicles is polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell. In a PEM fuel cell, an electrolyte membrane is sandwiched between a positive electrode (cathode) & a negative electrode (anode) and oxygen (from air) & hydrogen are respectively introduced into the electrodes. The hydrogen molecules break apart into protons and electrons due to an electrochemical reaction in the fuel cell catalyst. The protons travel through the membrane to the cathode and the electrons are forced to travel through an external circuit to provide power to the electric car. Electrons then recombine with the protons at cathode and they fuse with oxygen molecules to form water. 

Source: https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/07/f24/fcto_fcev_infographic_0.pdf 

Current Position of FCEVs in the Market 

While BEVs have witnessed rapid adoption, the fuel cell electric vehicles market remains at its nascent stages. As of 2023, FCEVs constituted a small fraction of the EV industry, with major deployments in countries such as Japan, South Korea, California, and the U.S. Key players in the fuel cell electric vehicles market include Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and Daimler who have launched flagship models such as the Toyota Mirai, Hyundai Nexo, and Honda Clarity. The major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are inclined toward the adoption of FCEVs, thereby driving the growth of the market. For instance, on September 2024, BMW Group announced to launch its first-ever series production hydrogen-powered FCEV in 2028. BMW has established a goal to reduce CO2 emissions per vehicle over the full lifecycle–including supply chain, production, and product use–by at least 40% by 2030. Moreover, it aims to transition to BEVs, with a plan for 50% of company-wide sales to be of EVs by 2030. 

Drivers of the Market  

Long-Range Applications: FCEVs are revolutionizing the automotive and transportation sectors with their capability to cover extensive distances, exceeding 400 miles on a single refuel. This attribute of fuel cells makes them appealing for heavy-duty applications such as trucks, buses, and trains. Unlike BEVs, which require frequent charging, FCEVs offer quick refueling times that facilitate uninterrupted operations over long routes & heavy-duty cycles. This makes them a transformative solution for industries & services prioritizing range, efficiency, and minimal downtime. 

Fleet and Public Transportation: FCEVs are significantly being adopted in fleet operations due to their distinct advantages. Public transportation systems, such as buses and shuttles, are expected to utilize hydrogen-powered vehicles to maintain continuous service with minimal interruptions. Their extended range is projected to ensure their operation over long routes without requiring frequent stops, making them ideal for urban and intercity travel. In addition, logistics fleets and commercial trucking operations benefit from FCEVs as they offer a sustainable alternative to conventional diesel-powered vehicles. Quick refueling considerably reduces operational downtime compared to BEVs that typically require hours to recharge. This combination of efficiency, reduced environmental impact, and operational reliability makes FCEVs an excellent choice for fleet & public transport applications. 

Supportive Policies and Incentives: Governments and organizations across the globe are actively supporting the adoption of FCEVs to align with the global transition to clean energy. Key initiatives include financial incentives such as subsidies and tax credits to make FCEVs more accessible for private & commercial use. Furthermore, significant investments are being made to develop hydrogen refueling infrastructure, ensuring widespread availability to cater to the demands of expanding FCEV fleets. Moreover, several nations are promoting green hydrogen production through grants & research programs, aligning FCEVs with broad sustainability goals and fostering a clean transportation ecosystem. 

Challenges Hindering the Adoption of FCEVs 

The adoption of FCEVs is subject to several challenges that hinder their widespread acceptance. High production costs remain a primary concern, as fuel cells require rare materials such as platinum. Furthermore, the integration of hydrogen storage systems, fuel cell stacks, and powertrains increase the expenses, making FCEVs costlier than BEVs and ICE vehicles. The current state of limited hydrogen refueling infrastructure restrains the market growth, as establishing refueling stations is capital-intensive and requires coordinated efforts between governments & private sectors to ensure accessibility. In addition, hydrogen production notably relies on natural gas, contributing to CO₂ emissions, while the greener alternative—green hydrogen—remains expensive and scarce. Public perception and awareness further pose significant hurdles, as a large base of consumers lack familiarity with FCEV technology and harbor concerns about safety, refueling station availability, and operational reliability. Owing to these concerns, FCEVs face stringent competition from BEVs, which benefit from a well-established market presence and extensive charging infrastructure. 

Promising Prospects 

Despite the challenges, the fuel cell electric vehicles market is poised to witness significant opportunities that are expected to boost the adoption of FCEVs. Their applicability for heavy-duty and commercial applications, such as long-haul trucking, aviation, and marine transport due to their high energy density and quick refueling times address the limitations of BEVs. Furthermore, hydrogen serves as an effective energy storage medium as it is capable of accumulating excess renewable energy for long periods and enhancing energy resilience & grid stability. Favorable policies and regulatory support with initiatives such as the European Union’s Green Deal, Japan’s Hydrogen Strategy, and South Korea’s Hydrogen Economy Roadmap emphasize the role of hydrogen in achieving carbon neutrality. This is poised to open new avenues for the market. Advancements in fuel cell technology such as reduction in platinum usage, development of solid oxide fuel cells, and enhancement of durability exhibit the potential to decrease costs & improve efficiency and make FCEVs considerably competitive. In addition, corporate sustainability initiatives are driving investments in hydrogen-powered fleets, aligning with environmental goals, creating brand value, and accelerating hydrogen infrastructure development. Therefore, these factors position FCEVs as a transformative solution for sustainable transportation. 

Regulatory Landscape and Government Initiatives 

Governments across the globe are playing a crucial role in promoting FCEV adoption through various initiatives: 

• Japan: Japan has established itself as a leader in hydrogen technology, with ambitious targets to deploy over 200,000 FCEVs by 2025. Government support includes subsidies, R&D funding, and infrastructure investments. 

• South Korea: South Korea's Hydrogen Economy Roadmap aims to develop 80,000 FCEVs and 1,200 refueling stations by 2030. The government has partnered with automakers such as Hyundai to promote FCEV manufacturing and exports. 

• European Union: The EU’s Green Deal and Hydrogen Strategy plans to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, with hydrogen playing a central role. The EU aims to install a minimum of 40 GW of green hydrogen electrolyzers by 2030, which is projected to directly support FCEV expansion. 

• United States: In the U.S., California has been a frontrunner in promoting hydrogen vehicles through initiatives such as the California Fuel Cell Partnership (CaFCP). The state offers subsidies for hydrogen stations and incentives for FCEV purchases, contributing to one of the most extensive FCEV deployments globally. 

These policies demonstrate that government support is vital to overcoming the initial market barriers associated with FCEVs. 

Upcoming Hydrogen Cars in India 

With several major OEMs preparing to launch a range of BEVs over the next five years, several noteworthy launches and trials for hydrogen FCEVs are anticipated. 

• BMW iX5 

The BMW iX5 used a hydrogen fuel cell electric drive, jointly developed with Toyota. The vehicle's drive system uses fuel cells to convert hydrogen stored in its two 700-bar tanks made of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic into electricity. It delivers up to 125 kW (170 hp/168 hp) of electrical output. Contrary to the claims of some reports, this is not the most powerful fuel cell stack across the globe (among passenger car models). The 128 kW (174 hp/172 hp) second-generation Toyota Mirai 330 cell fuel cell stack claims this title. 

• Ineos Grenadier Hydrogen FCEV 

Ineos Automotive formally declared in November 2020 that it has partnered with Hyundai Motor Company through a joint venture to test a hydrogen fuel cell variant of the Ineos Grenadier. The announcement revealed that Ineos Grenadier's prototype hydrogen FCEV is expected to receive the second-generation fuel cell stack from the South Korean automaker, which currently powers Hyundai Nexo. 

• 2023 Hyundai Nexo 

Hyundai Motor Company announced its aim to become a carbon-neutral brand by 2045. At the 2021 Frankfurt Motor Show, the company announced launching the new Hyundai Nexo in the second half of 2023 that was expected to be a facelifted version of the original model on sale. Instead of Nexo's 2nd generation fuel cell stack, the new facelifted Nexo was set to feature the company's latest 3rd generation fuel cell stack cost-efficiently. 

• Hyundai Staria Fuel Cell 

The Hyundai Staria Fuel Cell made its first appearance in a teaser at the end of the Staria Digital World Premiere on April 13, 2021, with the announcement of launching the Staria fuel cell vehicle in the second half of 2023. However, the model launch has now been rescheduled for 2026. This multipurpose vehicle is expected to exhibit a 200-kW version of the 3rd generation fuel cell stack that is similar in size to the 2nd generation system; however, provides twice the power. Hyundai Motor Company claims to have developed its 200-kW version for commercial vehicle applications. 

• Kia FK/Hyundai FK 

The Hyundai Motor Group revealed a new hydrogen FCEV concept called Vision FK at the Hydrogen Wave Forum in 2024. While the brand has not been revealed by the company, it is not expected to be the Genesis model. Instead, it is anticipated to be a Kia FK (Kia Vision FK) as it is similar to an evolved version of the Stinger. 

• Land Rover Defender Fuel Cell Vehicle 

Jaguar Land Rover is planning to launch the Land Rover Defender Hydrogen FCEV. The British carmaker has confirmed it is developing a prototype for feasibility studies. A completely battery-powered electric variant of the Defender is reportedly developing, but an electric variant with a hydrogen fuel cell is expected to accompany the launch. 

Case Study: Hydrogen Fuel Cell for Commercial Trucks 

Ricardo, a global strategic, environmental, and engineering consulting company, supported CaFCP in the assessment of hydrogen trucks and fueling stations. 

Challenge 

California Fuel Cell Partnership is an industry-government collaboration that aims to accelerate market introduction of FCEVs. One of their key focus areas is enabling adoption of hydrogen fuel cell technology in commercial trucks. Economic assessment of new technologies is important for identifying & overcoming barriers to commercialization and developing a strong business case for customers. 

Approach 

Ricardo used the following approaches to develop an economic assessment: 

• Extended proprietary total cost of ownership models to estimate life cycle cost and payback period for investments in fuel cell medium/heavy duty trucks  

• Ricardo created a model comprised with a detailed build-up of capital expenses and operating costs incurred over the ownership period of a conventional or alternative fuel truck 

• Ricardo created a toolset supplemented with economic models of refueling infrastructure that convey insights on capital and operational expenses encountered during installing & operating hydrogen, CNG/LNG, and EV charging stations 

Recommendations 

Key economic metrics such as total cost of ownership, payback period, and internal rate of return can be estimated which are important considerations in purchase decisions of commercial fleets. 

Results 

• The model provides a building block for assessing the economic viability of future vehicles featuring new powertrain technologies including natural gas, battery-electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cells. 

• The toolset is projected to help the Fuel Cell Partnership members in developing a consensus view on potential of hydrogen fuel cell technology as an alternative to diesel trucks. 

Future Outlook 

The future of FCEVs majorly depends on overcoming current challenges and scaling up production. Key developments to watch include: 

• Declining Fuel Cell Costs: As economies of scale improve and new fuel cell technologies reduce the need for platinum, FCEVs are expected to become more affordable. 

• Expansion of Hydrogen Infrastructure: Governments and private entities are investing notably in hydrogen infrastructure, which is expected to be critical for the success of FCEVs. 

• Green Hydrogen Production: The cost of green hydrogen production is projected to decrease as renewable energy becomes more widespread. Increase in the availability of green hydrogen is projected to strengthen the environmental benefits of FCEVs. 

• Consumer Awareness and Acceptance: Effective marketing and education campaigns are anticipated to help change public perception and drive consumer acceptance of FCEVs. 

FCEVs have the potential to transform the transportation industry, offering a sustainable and efficient alternative to conventional and battery-electric vehicles. The successful expansion of FCEVs depends on collaborations between automakers, governments, and infrastructure providers to address cost, infrastructure, and consumer adoption challenges. As technology advances and hydrogen production becomes highly sustainable, FCEVs are projected to play a central role in achieving global emission reduction targets & building a carbon-neutral future. Through strategic planning, investment, and continuous innovation; FCEVs exhibit the potential to unlock a new era of sustainable, zero-emission mobility and contribute to a clean & green planet.  

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