Anticipating Unintended Consequences

Anticipating unintended consequences

Thomas Midgley Junior was by all accounts a gifted and brilliant inventor. Over his life he filed nearly 100 patents. His inventions touched the lives of nearly everyone on the planet. As was promised by the company he worked for “better living through Chemistry”, Midgley’s work improved homes, cars and work. But one of his inventions nearly destroyed all life on earth, another did kill tens of millions and a third killed him. It is only too easy to claim a mea culpa, and often it is not reasonable to expect certain aspects to be anticipated but it does not mean we should be try to anticipate or be blind to our biases.

The deadly trio

Refrigeration

Refrigeration was a problem. Expensive and dangerous it could not be massed produced for every house. The principle of compression and decompression cycles was well established but what gases can be used which would not burn down your house if they leaked? A substance with a low boiling point, inflammable, low toxicity, and to be generally non-reactive. Thomas Midgley Jr’s put forward a already know compound, Chlorofluorocarbon.

CFCs.

CFCs are robust, they don’t readily interact with other chemicals, hence they are safe to handle and use. However when bombarded with high energy Ultra Violet radiation they break apart, losing the highly reactive chlorine. At ground level there is not a lot of UV radiation, it is high up in the atmosphere between 15 to 35 kilometers, before the ozone layer absorbs 98% of all UV radiation where the CFCs break apart, but when they do they act as catalysts to break down the very ozone which protects the earth from this high energy radiation.

Engine Knock

Petrol (gasoline) engines had a tendency to knock, the mix of air and fuel combusting before the piston had fully compressed the chamber, making a very annoying noise, reducing efficiency and wearing out the engine. General Motors and Dow Chemical came together to resolve the problem. A number of compounds were found which stopped this problem, one of them is ethanol, the same stuff found in beer and now found mixed with petrol (gasoline) in pumps today. But Ethanol has been known for centuries and can’t be patented. Tetra Ethyl Lead could be and was effective at stopping the problem. The drawback with lead it it’s toxicity. Alice Hamilton of Harvard University the leading expert on lead toxicity stated before a Congressional hearing on the use of this new additive that “wherever there is lead there follows lead poisoning”. Should Midgley and Dow have listened? Well 5 out of the 40 employees in the factory manufacturing tetra ethyl Lead died, others were lead off in straight jackets suffering from hallucinations. Midgley himself was off work for months suffering from lead poisoning.

Midgley’s Bed

In 1940 Midgley contracted Polio and became severely ill, he recovered but lost the use of his legs. Being bed ridden did not stop Midgley from using his mind and he devised ropes and pulleys to enable him to pull himself up. On the 2nd of November 1944 his neck got entangled in a rope and he was killed.

Why we don’t anticipate things which we should

American Sociologist Robert K. Merton studied unanticipated consequence and highlighted five causes of unanticipated consequences

- Immediate interests overriding long-term interests. Getting a job done quickly to get it off your list, or the potential reward from a bias in your research. This certainly affected Midgley, not only was there a cheaper and safe alternative to Tetra-ethyl lead but he was repeatedly warned of the dangers of lead.

- Ignorance, making it impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis. We can’t know everything and thus there is always the chance that there are things we don’t know which are important. Midgely took reasonable steps to ensure CFCs were safe, certainly at ground level they were nontoxic and non-flammable.

- Errors in analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation.

- Basic values which may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavourable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values).

- Self-defeating prophecy, or, the fear of some consequence which drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated.

- Not in Merton’s list was 'Group Think', the way a group can sometimes look at a problem in the same way and ignore or miss other solutions.

Going back to Midgley’s three disastrous inventions, no one suggests that he set out to create inventions with such terrible effects. But in at least two cases he should have anticipated the possible consequences. The world is complex but this is not an excuse for not even trying to anticipate.

Douglas Adams once wrote: "The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at and repair. If we believe we are infallible, or our work is then we run the risk of overlooking our own fallibility. We don’t know what we don’t know, and one of the things we don’t know is quite how fallible we are."

Swiss Cheese anyone?

The Swiss cheese model of safety is a metaphor used to describe how multiple layers of defence, slices of cheese can be used to prevent accidents or incidents. The model was originally developed by James Reason, a British psychologist and professor, to explain how complex systems can fail, despite multiple layers of protection. According to the model, each layer of defence represents a different safeguard that is intended to prevent accidents or incidents from occurring. These safeguards can include things like policies, procedures, training, equipment, and other measures that are put in place to protect against hazards.

However, these safeguards are not fool proof and can sometimes fail or break down. When this happens, the gap in the defence, 'a hole in the cheese' allows an accident or incident to occur. The idea behind the Swiss cheese model is that by having multiple layers of defence in place, it is less likely that an accident or incident will occur. The layers work together to create a safety net, catches any failures or breakdowns in individual layers.

However, the model also acknowledges that accidents and incidents can still occur, even when multiple safeguards are in place. This is because it is impossible to eliminate all risks and hazards completely, and it is likely that at least one "hole" will be present at any given time.

The Swiss cheese model is often used in the fields of safety and risk management to help organizations understand the importance of multiple layers of defence and to identify and address potential weaknesses in their safety systems.

The importance of feedback

"I am like my mother, I stereotype. It's faster." - Ryan Bingham (George Clooney, Up in the Air)

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency for people with low ability or knowledge in a certain area to overestimate their own ability or knowledge. This often leads to overconfidence and poor decision-making.

There are several strategies that can help individuals avoid the Dunning-Kruger effect:

Seek feedback from others: One of the most effective ways to avoid the Dunning-Kruger effect is to regularly seek feedback from others, including colleagues, supervisors, or experts in the field. This can help you get a more accurate understanding of your own skills and knowledge. Stay open to learning: To avoid overconfidence and the tendency to overestimate your own abilities, it is important to stay open to learning and be willing to admit when you don't know something. This can help you avoid making poor decisions based on incomplete or incorrect information. Seek out diverse perspectives: Expanding your network and seeking out diverse perspectives can help you get a more accurate understanding of your own abilities and knowledge. This can include engaging with people who have different backgrounds, experiences, or expertise. Be self-aware: It is important to regularly reflect on your own strengths and weaknesses and to be aware of potential biases that might affect your perceptions of your own abilities.

By following these strategies, individuals can avoid the Dunning-Kruger effect and make more informed decisions based on a more accurate understanding of their own skills and knowledge.

Beware Black Swans

In 1605 all swans were white, at least as Europe was concerned. Mention a swan and everyone (in Europe) knew without a doubt you meant a large bad tempered white bird. After 1606 Europeans were not so sure. A Black Swan event is a rare and unpredictable occurrence that has significant consequences. These events can be difficult to anticipate, but there are several strategies that can help individuals and organizations prepare for them:

Develop a risk management plan: One of the most effective ways to prepare for Black Swan events is to develop a comprehensive risk management plan. This can involve identifying potential risks, assessing the likelihood and potential impact of those risks, and developing strategies to mitigate or respond to them.

Monitor for early warning signs: Some Black Swan events may have early warning signs that can help individuals and organizations prepare for them. For example, monitoring economic indicators, political developments, or natural disasters can help identify potential risks and allow for early preparation.

Build resilience: Building resilience within an organization can help it better withstand Black Swan events. This can involve developing contingency plans, diversifying resources, and investing in training and education to help employees adapt to unexpected challenges.

Encourage flexibility and adaptability: Being flexible and adaptable can also help organizations respond to Black Swan events. This can involve developing the ability to quickly pivot to new strategies, changing course as new information becomes available, and being open to new ideas and approaches.

By following these strategies, individuals and organizations can better anticipate and prepare for Black Swan events, helping to minimize the potential impact of these rare and unpredictable occurrences.

The Inventor who nearly ended the world, Cautionary Tales Podcast, Tim Harford/Puskin industries

The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action