Aquaculture 2050: Charting a Course for Sustainable Growth

The year is 2024, and the world stands at a crossroads.

The human population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, placing immense pressure on our planet's resources, particularly food production.

With over 70% of the Earth's surface covered in water and growing consumer demand for protein, aquaculture emerges as a vital solution to address this challenge.

Let us delve into the future of aquaculture, specifically focusing on the year 2050 and the crucial steps we must take to ensure sustainable growth in this crucial industry.

POTENTIAL FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE SCENARIOS TO 2050

The Current Landscape:

Aquaculture has witnessed remarkable growth in recent decades. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global aquaculture production reached 82.1 million tonnes in 2020, accounting for nearly 50% of all fish consumed globally.

This rapid expansion, however, has not been without its challenges. Environmental concerns like pollution, habitat degradation, and disease outbreaks raise questions about the long-term sustainability of current practices. Additionally, social issues like inadequate social responsibility and ethical concerns require significant attention.

FAO has recently conducted preliminary projections to 2050 producing three plausible fisheries and aquaculture scenarios for consideration and action. These projections are based on various expectations of sectoral growth, starting from the results of the FAO fish model included in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.

The scenarios are:

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL This scenario follows trend paths similar to those obtained from the OECD-FAO projections to 2030, with a modest increase in capture fisheries (resulting mainly from improved management) and an important increase in aquaculture (despite slower growth rates compared with previous decades). The scenario points to a slight growth of marine and inland capture fisheries, partially due to better reporting systems for inland fisheries. The percentage of marine capture fisheries not used for direct human consumption should slightly decrease by 2050 compared with 2030 as a result of technological improvements.

LOW-ROAD This scenario projects several failures in aquaculture expansion and continued use of unsustainable practices, leading to a deterioration in many new ventures, resulting in limited growth of aquaculture and a slight decline in capture fisheries. Capture fisheries, both marine and inland, see a continued deterioration of the resource base every year until 2050. The low-road scenario also foresees a 9.6 percent loss in the 2050 yield, consistent with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (“business-as-usual”) projections of climate change impacts. The proportion of marine capture fisheries not used for direct human consumption should remain at a similar level as expected in 2031, with no benefit from further technological innovation.

HIGH-ROAD This scenario projects some positive outcomes, allowing the development and expansion of aquaculture in a sustainable manner. Growth rates are modest but significant, as production increases and reflects more extensive investment in mariculture. A number of positive outcomes are also expected for marine capture fisheries, with growth reaching towards the estimated maximum sustainable yield of oceans and seas and the ambitious target of 95.5 million tonnes by 2050. Inland capture fisheries are expected to grow to 13.5 million tonnes, reflecting better data collection systems and the implementation of management measures, which are currently lacking in many river basins. In addition, capture fisheries (both marine and inland) are subject to a 4.05 percent decrease in 2050 yield, consistent with RCP2.6 (“strong mitigation”) projections for climate change impacts in capture fisheries.3 The percentage of marine capture fisheries not destined for direct human consumption is expected to decrease as a result of technological improvements, including reduced loss and waste.

In terms of consumption, a business-as-usual scenario would allow the apparent per capita consumption of aquatic foods to rise to 22.3 kg by 2050, up from the 20.2 kg estimated in 2020, thus increasing the contribution of aquatic foods to the fight against hunger and malnutrition. Increased per capita consumption, as envisaged by the high-road scenario, reaching 25.5 kg, would theoretically be possible through innovative and intensive aquaculture development, combined with ambitious, effective management of all capture fisheries across the world. On the other hand, failure to address current overfishing patterns, and limited aquaculture growth would potentially result in per capita consumption of aquatic food decreasing to 18.5 kg by 2050, a return to the pre-2012 levels, with a major impact on food security in particular for countries more dependent on aquatic foods in their diets.

Vision 2050: A Sustainable and Thriving Aquaculture Sector:

As we look towards 2050, envisioning a sustainable and thriving aquaculture sector is paramount. This future hinges on several key pillars:

• Innovation and Technology: Technological advancements will play a transformative role. Precision aquaculture, utilizing sensors and data analytics to optimize feeding, water quality, and disease management, will be commonplace. Advances in biotechnologies like selective breeding and gene editing hold significant potential for improving disease resistance and growth rates while minimizing environmental impact. Automation and robotics will streamline operations, reducing labor costs and improving efficiency.
• Environmental Sustainability: Sustainable practices will be ingrained in every aspect of aquaculture. Closed-loop systems, minimizing water usage and waste discharge, will become the norm. Recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) will gain significant traction, particularly in land-based operations, reducing reliance on open-ocean resources. Sustainable feed sources, like alternative proteins derived from insects or algae, will be widely adopted, decreasing the environmental footprint associated with traditional fishmeal and fish oil.
• Social Responsibility and Ethical Practices: Ethical considerations will be at the forefront. Fair labor practices, ensuring decent working conditions and fair wages for workers, will be a cornerstone of the industry. Responsible sourcing of seed and broodstock, minimizing the risk of introducing invasive species, will be prioritized. Transparency and traceability throughout the supply chain will be essential, building consumer trust and ensuring responsible production practices.

Countries Charting the Course:

Several countries are actively shaping the future of sustainable aquaculture. Here are a few examples:

• Norway: A global leader in sustainable salmon farming, Norway pioneered the use of closed-loop RAS systems and has implemented strict regulations to minimize environmental impact. The country aims to maintain its position as a leader in sustainable aquaculture by focusing on innovation, biosecurity, and responsible resource management.
• Netherlands: Recognizing the limitations of space and environmental concerns, the Netherlands is actively exploring innovative solutions like multi-trophic aquaculture (integrating different species in the same system) and offshore aquaculture. The country is also investing in research and development of sustainable feed alternatives and closed-loop systems for land-based aquaculture.
• China: The world's largest producer of aquaculture products, China is undergoing a significant transformation towards sustainable practices. The government has implemented stricter regulations and is investing heavily in research and development of new technologies like RAS and alternative feed sources. While challenges remain, China's commitment to sustainable practices is a positive step forward.
• Vietnam: Emerging as a major player in aquaculture, Vietnam is actively promoting sustainable practices. The government has implemented zoning regulations for aquaculture activities and is encouraging the adoption of environmentally friendly technologies like bioflocs (adding organic matter to ponds to cultivate microorganisms that improve water quality).

Africa:

• Egypt: Africa's leading producer of farmed fish, Egypt is actively promoting sustainable practices. The government has invested in research on alternative feed sources and implemented regulations to control water pollution from aquaculture operations. Additionally, initiatives are underway to improve biosecurity and promote responsible aquaculture practices.
• Rwanda: Recognizing the potential of aquaculture to contribute to food security and economic development, Rwanda has implemented several ambitious strategies. The government provides subsidies to small-scale fish farmers, promotes the adoption of biofloc technology, and encourages the use of alternative feed sources. These initiatives, coupled with a focus on training and capacity building, position Rwanda as a potential leader in sustainable aquaculture within Africa.
• Kenya: Kenya's aquaculture sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a focus on tilapia and catfish farming. The government has recognized the need for sustainable practices and is implementing regulations to minimize environmental impact. Initiatives promoting the use of RAS technology, particularly for peri-urban aquaculture, are also gaining traction.

Middle East:

• Oman: Oman, with its long coastline and diverse marine environment, has significant potential for sustainable aquaculture development. The government is actively promoting the sector and has implemented regulations to ensure responsible practices. Initiatives are underway to develop hatchery and breeding programs for commercially valuable species, while promoting the adoption of biofloc technology and alternative feed sources.
• United Arab Emirates (UAE): The UAE, recognizing the limitations of space and environmental concerns, is actively promoting land-based aquaculture and exploring innovative solutions like multi-trophic aquaculture. The government has launched several initiatives to support the development of the sector, including investing in research and development and providing financial support to fish farmers adopting sustainable practices.

These countries, along with many others, demonstrate the global commitment to achieving a sustainable future for aquaculture. However, significant challenges remain:

• Investment and Funding: Transitioning to sustainable practices requires substantial investments in research, development, and infrastructure. Public-private partnerships and innovative financing mechanisms will be crucial to bridge the funding gap.
• Capacity Building: Equipping aquaculture farmers, particularly in developing countries, with the knowledge and skills required to adopt sustainable practices is essential. Educational programs, training initiatives, and technology transfer are crucial for widespread adoption.
• Consumer Awareness: Building consumer awareness about the importance of sustainable aquaculture and educating them on how to make informed choices is critical. This can be achieved through effective communication campaigns, eco-labeling, and promoting transparency throughout the supply chain.

• Limited Infrastructure and Resources: Many African and Middle Eastern countries lack the necessary infrastructure and resources to implement large-scale sustainable aquaculture practices. Capacity building and investment in infrastructure development are crucial for long-term success.
• Access to Markets and Financing: Connecting small-scale farmers to markets and providing them with access to financing for adopting sustainable technologies remain significant hurdles. Innovative financing mechanisms and market access initiatives are essential to empower these communities.
• Climate Change and Environmental Concerns: The impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion, pose specific challenges for coastal aquaculture in Africa and the Middle East. Adapting to these changes and implementing climate-resilient practices are crucial for ensuring long-term sustainability.

The future of aquaculture is brimming with potential. By addressing the existing challenges, fostering collaboration, and embracing innovation, these regions can play a significant role in shaping a sustainable and thriving global aquaculture sector.

In summary, achieving the vision of a sustainable and thriving aquaculture sector by 2040 requires a collective effort. Governments, industry players, research institutions, and consumers all have a role to play in supporting innovation, promoting responsible practices, and ensuring equitable access to the benefits of this growing industry. By working together, we can ensure that aquaculture contributes to a healthy planet, food security for all, and a prosperous future.

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