Avoiding Confirmation Bias in Voting and Investing

Francis Bacon once observed, "The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion... draws all things else to support and agree with it." This insightful reflection on human nature is especially relevant as we approach the 2024 Presidential election in the USA. Our tendency towards confirmation bias, the preference to seek out information that aligns with our existing beliefs, is a significant challenge in the quest for truth and balanced decision-making and it impacts both how we vote and invest. 

The concept of confirmation bias is not new. Thucydides noted, "For it is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not fancy." Dante’s St. Thomas Aquinas warned, "Opinion – hasty – often can incline to the wrong side, and then affection for one’s own opinion binds, confines the mind." Leo Tolstoy further emphasized, "I know that most men – not only those considered clever, but even those who are very clever, and capable of understanding most difficult scientific, mathematical, or philosophic problems – can very seldom discern even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as to oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions they have formed, perhaps with much difficulty – conclusions of which they are proud, which they have taught to others, and on which they have built their lives." This historical wisdom underscores a timeless truth: our beliefs shape our reality, often at the expense of broader understanding.

In contemporary times, a 2009 study from Ohio State found that people spend 36% more time reading essays that align with their opinions. This bias was starkly evident in the 2016 US Presidential election, where many voters for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton did not have a single friend voting for the opposing candidate. This homogeneity of thought leads to echo chambers, where dissenting opinions are scarce, reinforcing our preconceptions and reducing our exposure to diverse perspectives.

Today’s media landscape exacerbates this issue. With the proliferation of news sites and specialized pundits, it’s easier than ever to find sources that confirm our existing views. Don't like what you’re hearing? Change the channel to find a pundit who mirrors your worldview. This convenience comes at a cost: we increasingly live in ideological silos, avoiding information that doesn’t square with our cherished narratives.

The Path Forward: Expansive Thinking and Moderation

As we approach the 2024 Presidential election, it is crucial to embrace expansive thinking, considering all viewpoints, and practicing moderation in speech and thought. Here are some steps to help us find middle ground:

1. Seek Diverse Perspectives: Make a conscious effort to consume information from a variety of sources. This doesn’t mean abandoning your beliefs but challenging them constructively by understanding opposing viewpoints.
2. Engage in Civil Discourse: Approach political discussions with an open mind and a respectful tone. Aim to understand before seeking to be understood, fostering a climate where diverse opinions can coexist.
3. Moderation in Speech and Thought: Avoid extreme rhetoric and absolutist thinking. Recognize that complex issues often require nuanced solutions, and moderation can lead to more effective and inclusive outcomes.
4. Reflect on Personal Biases: Acknowledge your own biases and be willing to question them. Self-awareness is the first step toward overcoming confirmation bias and making more informed decisions.

Raymond S. Nickerson highlighted the pervasive nature of confirmation bias, suggesting, "If one were to attempt to identify a single problematic aspect of human reasoning that deserves attention above all others, the confirmation bias would have to be among the candidates for consideration. Many have written about this bias, and it appears to be sufficiently strong and pervasive that one is led to wonder whether the bias, by itself, might account for a significant fraction of the disputes, altercations, and misunderstandings that occur among individuals, groups, and nations." 

As we navigate the complexities of the 2024 Presidential election, let us commit to expansive thinking, moderation, and the pursuit of common ground. By doing so, we can contribute to a more informed, respectful, and united society, both in our voting booths and investment portfolios.