Basic Laws of Human Stupidity...and my personal input

Hello everyone, I hope you are well and happy. Just for wrapping up 2021, I decided to share some very interesting and curious information I stumbled upon recently plus give my personal input on the topic adding a few more hypotheses that can be used for further development of this theory.

How did this all start?

In the early 1600s, pioneering astronomer Johannes Kepler put forth his three laws of planetary motion, which, for the first time, provided an accurate and evidence-based description of the movement of the Solar System's planets around the Sun. By the end of the century, Isaac Newton followed Kepler's example with three laws of his own, describing the relationship between an object and the forces acting on it, thus laying the foundations for classical mechanics. Almost exactly three hundred years later, Carlo M. Cipolla, a professor of economic history at the University of California - Berkeley, introduced a set of laws no less revelatory than those of Kepler or Newton: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity. The first edition was written in English and released in 1976. Originally, it was intentionally distributed only among his friends on a confidential basis. The reason is simple. That book was intended as a sort of joke, where he faced a few serious topics in a lighthearted and not-to-be-taken-too-seriously way. When addressing such a sensible theme, he came up with an extravagant and interesting theory, which earned him incredible success. Not only was the essay officially published, but it was also translated into many languages and distributed worldwide. Now, it represents a milestone on the controversial topic of human stupidity. However, as you can imagine even Kepler's and Newton's laws are covered in high school education around the globe, Cipolla's laws are still a bit of a joke and not taken very seriously and they are not part of the contemporary education event though this may be useful `and beneficial for the students. So let's dive into the 5 basic laws of human stupidity.

1st Basic Law: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation

It's no brainer that stupid people exist, but according to the first law, you may be deeply underestimating their number and influence. Cipolla was so strongly convinced about this that he asserted that “any numerical assumption would turn out to be an underestimate”. This statement was obviously an exaggeration, part of his playful writing style. On the other hand, such an idea should not be taken too lightly. After all, this is not the first law by accident.

My postulate, based on the first law:

To get a realistic estimation of the number of stupid individuals in circulation, make your own estimation, multiply by n and add 1, where n is a constant between 2 and infinity and may vary based on complex factors

Stupid individuals in circulation = SIC

Your Estimate of Stupid Individuals in circulation = ESIC

N - a number between 2 and infinity

So my postulate, based on Cipolla's first law:

SIC = NxESIC+1

2nd Basic Law: The probability that a certain person be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person

Cipolla believes that across all populations, stupidity is a variable that remains constant. Whether it is gender, nationality, race, educational level or income, they all possess a percentage of stupid people. This means there are stupid university professors and stupid people among the Nobel prize winners. In every nation on earth, there are stupid people, but it is impossible to put a number to it; and if you do, you are violating the first law. Cipolla considered stupidity as a human characteristic, like having blond hair or black eyes. Consequently, it cannot but be distributed roughly equally in all walks of society, regardless of people’s level of education or social status. “Whether one frequents elegant circles or takes refuge among cannibals, whether they lock themselves up in a monastery or decide to spend the rest of their life in the company of a beautiful partner, the fact remains that they will always have to deal with the same percentage of stupid people”, he concluded.

In this pessimistic view, human beings are doomed to deal with stupidity. Also, according to Cipolla, there are no safer places or solutions to avoid it. The only thing you can do is accept this and live with it for the rest of your existence.

3rd Basic Law: A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

Carlo Cipolla considered this the golden and most important law, never to be forgotten. He did not consider stupidity a matter of IQ, but rather a lack of relational skills. In particular, he believed that it is possible to classify people based on their behaviour. Stupid people are the ones who harm others and often themselves. On the contrary, the behaviour of intelligent or overly naive people is aimed at helping others.

As is evident from the third law, Cipolla identifies two factors to consider when exploring human behaviour

• Benefits and losses that the individual causes to him or herself.
• Benefits and losses that an individual causes to others.

By creating a graph with the first factor on the x-axis and the second on the y-axis, we obtain four groups of people, with an additional category (ineffectual people) either existing in its own right or drawn from the members of each previous category whose position with respect to both axes is least extreme:

Helpless people - contribute to society but are taken advantage of by it (and especially by the "bandit" sector of it); note, however, that extreme altruists and pacifists may willingly and consciously (rather than helplessly) accept a place in this category for moral or ethical reasons.

Intelligent people - contribute to society and leverage their contributions into reciprocal benefits

Stupid people whose efforts are counterproductive to both their and others' interests

Bandits - pursue their own self-interest even when doing so poses a net detriment to societal welfare.

My hypothesis, based on the third law:

• If you think you are a bandit or helpless /naive/ person you are probably right
• If you think you are an intelligent or stupid person you are probably wrong

4th Basic Law: Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular, non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places, and under any circumstances, to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.

To make this law clearer, Carlo Cipolla added that “stupid people are deadly dangerous because reasonable people find it difficult to imagine and understand stupid behavior”. In such a view, stupid people’s attacks always catch intelligent ones by surprise. This makes it even more difficult to come up with a rational defence. On the other hand, this would be of little use since illogic actions cannot be understood using logic.

As a result, by underestimating their power, you are vulnerable and always be at the mercy of stupid people’s unpredictability. He was also convinced that intelligent people tend to think that the stupid ones can only harm themselves, that they are immune to their actions. This is a huge mistake making reasonable people feel invulnerable, dangerously lowering their guard.

Cipolla also added, "Through centuries and millennia, in public as in private life, countless individuals have failed to take account of the Fourth Basic Law and the failure has caused mankind incalculable losses."

My postulate, based on the 4th law:

To get a realistic estimation of the damage a stupid individual can cause /and set some numerical value/, make your own estimation, multiply by n and add 1, where n is a constant between 2 and infinity and may vary based on complex factors

Stupid individual Damage = SID

Your Estimate of Stupid Individual Damage = ESID

N - a number between 2 and infinity

So my postulate, based on Cipolla's fourth law:

SID = NxESID+1

5th Basic Law: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person

This law comes as a natural consequence of the previous and fourth basic law. Also, if you have no clue about what Cipolla meant here, he made it even more obvious by adding the following corollary:

"A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit"

 In fact, common sense tells us that intelligent people, bandits and naive people are predictable. In contrast, stupid people are not. This subtle difference makes stupid people incredibly more fearsome than intelligent people. In conclusion, this should be regarded as a kind of compendium of his entire theory on human stupidity.

Final Thoughts

The Italian economist Carlo Cipolla taught us that by using only irony and common sense, it is possible to conceive captivating ideas. As we can see he was able to lightheartedly address human stupidity in a clear and incisive way. By summarizing such a complex and controversial subject in five basic laws, he devised a genuine and fascinating theory. Although it should not be taken too seriously, this theory is something to keep in mind.