Beyond the Monroe Doctrine: A Tale of Two Futures (The Americas under Trump or Harris)

In 2023, International Affairs Canada published my/our analysis (Co-authored with Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill ) "Beyond the Monroe Doctrine: The Need to Re-Adapt U.S. and Canadian Policy to Address Social and Alignment Shifts in the Americas", where we argued for a necessary adaptive shift in U.S. and Canadian policies towards the Americas, taking into account the profound social and alignment changes in the region, but as we approach the U.S. national elections, our argument becomes increasingly relevant, warranting a careful examination of its implications in light of potential election outcomes.

A New Monroe Doctrine

There is speculation that a win for Donald Trump in the elections could see a resurrection of the Monroe Doctrine, a 19th-century principle that focused U.S. attention on its own hemisphere. In our 2023 article, we argued that, in the current socio-political climate, hemispheric relationships can no longer be unilateral. This argument holds in this context, since any revival of the Monroe Doctrine should be a collaborative effort, not an imposition.

A new Monroe Doctrine should be in sync with the current socio-political realities, which are starkly different from those of the 19th century. Latin American countries (and the world!) have undergone significant transformations over recent decades, and any policy seeking to address the region needs to take into account these realities. The Latin American countries have developed new economies, consolidated democracies or totalitarian regimes, and established new alliances, all of which would need to be acknowledged in a renewed Monroe Doctrine.

In our article, we also discussed the need to address the emerging challenges in the region, including the growing influence of external powers like China and Russia. A renewed Monroe Doctrine would need to address these challenges, reaffirming the U.S. position in the Western Hemisphere, but in a way that respects the sovereignty and aspirations of Latin American (and other) countries. The new Doctrine would also need to take a strong stance on human rights abuses, which continue to be a significant problem in the region and the world.

The Need for Cooperation and Dialogue

Regardless of the election outcome, cooperation and dialogue should be the mainstays of U.S. policy towards Latin America. As we argued in 2023, the era of unilateral policies is over. Instead, the U.S. needs to work with Latin American countries in a partnership of equals.

In any form of revitalization of the Monroe Doctrine, the policy should seek to build alliances with countries in the region that share common objectives. These objectives could include mitigating the influence of external powers, controlling irregular migration, addressing human rights abuses, and pushing back against the agenda of the Sao Paulo Forum.

Now, what If Trump Wins?

The potential return of the Trump administration might signal a significant shift in policy towards Latin America, drawing inspiration from the Monroe Doctrine. This new interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine wouldn't replicate its original 19th and early 20th-century policies, but rather, aim to establish alliances with like-minded nations in the region to achieve shared goals.

The administration would seek to solidify bilateral relationships with governments that have similar agendas, such as Argentina and Paraguay, who would, in turn, look for more direct foreign investment from the U.S. At the same time, policies toward Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia would be hardened. Additionally, the Trump administration would display a tougher approach for strategically important regional regimes whose leaders don't align with Trump's conservative agenda, including countries like Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico.

This scenario would place high demands on the U.S. Nations in the region hoping to partner with the U.S. would be seeking more investment, security cooperation, and increased diplomatic engagement. Given that the U.S. is already dealing with challenging environments in the Middle East and Europe and aiming to expand its presence in the Indo-Pacific region, finding resources to provide more to Latin America could prove difficult.

One potential solution could be a joint effort with allies from Europe and the Asia-Pacific. However, the U.S. currently lacks the necessary governmental structures and institutions to implement such cooperation. Thus, while the Trump administration might aim to shift its focus towards Latin America, the implementation of such a change could prove challenging due to a lack of resources and existing governmental structures.

If Trump wins the elections, it could indicate a return to a more assertive and interventionist policy towards Latin America. The Trump administration has shown a willingness to take unilateral action and prioritize U.S. interests above all else. This could carry significant implications for human rights, democracy, and regional stability in the Americas. It could also lead to a renewed focus on immigration control and a tougher stance on regimes that the U.S. perceives as hostile, thereby increasing tensions in the region and potentially exacerbating existing human rights issues.

Nevertheless, a Trump win could also present opportunities for increased cooperation and dialogue on shared challenges like drug trafficking and regional security. Notably, Canada would face significant implications under a Trump presidency. Traditionally, Canada has adopted a more multilateral and cooperative approach to its relationships in the Americas. A more assertive U.S. policy could challenge this approach, forcing Canada to reassess its own policies and strategies in the region.

What If Harris Wins?

On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins and continues with the current Democratic policy, it should be done with greater consideration for the changing realities of the Americas. As we discussed in our article, policy cannot be static; it must adapt to the evolving socio-political landscape.

A Harris win would likely entail a continuation of current policies. However, these policies need to be reviewed and adapted to current realities. The Americas of the 19th and the 21st centuries are vastly different, and our policies must reflect this. This includes taking a stronger stance on human rights abuses and working closely with Latin American countries to address this issue.

Under a Harris presidency, the U.S. would likely continue to prioritize human rights and democracy in its policy towards Latin America. This could lead to increased pressure on countries with poor human rights records and could create opportunities for increased cooperation on human rights issues. However, it could also lead to tensions with countries that feel targeted by this approach.

The implications for Canada under a Harris presidency would also be significant. Harris's focus on human rights and democracy could align well with Canada's own approach to the region. However, it could also create challenges for Canada if it leads to increased tensions in the region.

Towards a New Strategy

As we argued in 2023, instead of reviving policies of the past, the U.S. needs to develop new strategies that reflect current reality. U.S. foreign policy in Latin America cannot be a relic of the past, but a response to current circumstances.

Whether it's a "new Monroe Doctrine" or a continuation of current policies, the strategy should be grounded on cooperation, dialogue, and mutual respect. Regardless of who wins the election, it is vital that we remember and acknowledge the complexity and diversity of this hemisphere, and work towards developing policies that reflect and respect these realities.

One way or the other, the November elections in the U.S. are bound to have a significant impact on the Americas. But regardless of the outcome, we must not lose sight of the fact that the region is not what it used to be, (neither the U.S. or Canada) New realities call for new strategies, and it's high time we started developing them. As we argued in our 2023 paper, a re-adaptation of U.S. and Canadian foreign policies is not just necessary, it's urgent. The future of inter-American relationships depends on it.

Particular Implications for Canada's Security

As a close neighbor and ally of the U.S., Canada has a vested interest in the outcome of the U.S. elections. The implications of a renewed Monroe Doctrine or a continuation of current policies for Canada are (very) significant.

Under a new Trump's Monroe Doctrine, Canada would need to navigate its relationship with the U.S. carefully. The focus on hemispheric relations could lead to increased U.S. influence in the region, which could impact Canadian interests. Canada would need to ensure that its interests and relationships in the region are protected.

Continued current policies under a Harris win could also have significant implications for Canada. Harris's focus on human rights could lead to increased scrutiny of regional issues, potentially affecting Canada's relationships in the region. However, this could also present opportunities for Canada to work closely with the U.S. on addressing human rights abuses and other issues.

In any case, as we argued in 2023, Canada needs to be proactive in shaping its policies and strategies in line with the changing realities of the Americas. The upcoming U.S. elections are a reminder that Canada cannot afford to be complacent in its approach to the region. The need for a re-adaptation of Canadian foreign policy is as urgent as ever.

In any case, it is my hope that this discussion contributes to the ongoing dialogue about the future of inter-American relationships. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. elections, the task of building a more cooperative and respectful future for the Americas remains.

Reasoning

Regarding the U.S. elections, there is a lot at stake for the Americas. The outcome will determine the direction of U.S. policy towards the region and could have far-reaching implications for the countries of the region, and of course, including Canada. But regardless of who wins, it is clear that a re-adaptation of U.S. and Canadian policies is necessary.

As argued in our 2023 paper, these policies must respect the sovereignty and aspirations of the countries of the region.

The task of building a more cooperative and respectful future for the Americas is not an easy one. It will require leadership, vision, and a willingness to engage in difficult conversations. But it is a task that we cannot afford to ignore. The future of the Americas, and our place in it, depends on it.