Big Pattern Change - California Rain/Taste of Spring East

The winter months have been a bit "checkered" across the nation. The "El Nino" pattern has NOT been dominant but it has shown up from time to time. Over the past month, we have seen more "ridging" in the West while more frequent troughs have visited the East. As a result, much of the West has been warm and dry lately. Overall rainfall in California has been near average since December, but many residents of the region have been hoping for much more (with the ongoing severe drought).  Despite the troughs, the surges of cold air into the eastern US have been rather modest and snowfall has been well below seasonal averages across most locations in the Northeast.

There are changes underway in the overall pattern. In the West, an upper trough is moving into the region. A southwest flow of tropical moisture will produce periods of heavy rain. The first surge of moisture into California will be mainly Saturday and Saturday night (especially central areas and into the Sierras. The second surge will dive down into Southern California Sunday and Sunday night. Look for heavy rain with some urban and small stream flooding. Strong winds could caused downed trees and power lines. Some lower elevations could see 2"-3"ofrain with some higher elevations of 5"-6". Some parts of the Sierra Nevada could see up to 3' of snow through Monday. Southern California could see heavy rain and there will be high surf along the coast. Falling temperatures could mean snow for the "Grapevine" Monday. There could be another system riding into the area late next week. Although this rain is very welcome, it will probably have little effect on the severe drought.

The graphic above is for next Wednesday. Look for high temperatures at least into the 70s across the South. Looks like "spring" will come in a hurry. The ny downside will be that the "pollen count" will likely rise and that isn't good for allergy sufferers like me.

The Midwest and Northeast will be relatively mild through mid-March with little to no snow. Major snowstorms are spotty after that in weather history. The California storm will produce heavy rain from Texas to the mid-Mississippi valley next week. There will also be severe weather from Texas to the central Plains on eastward.