Black Friday Forecast: Trends, Tech, and Timeless Brands

Short on Time, Big on Insights: Your monthly rundown on the most compelling narratives

This month, we asked the Placer team to share their Black Friday predictions, offering insights into the trends, strategies, and innovations shaping the 2024 holiday shopping season.

TL;DR for This Month’s TL;DR

🕔 Early door-busters make a strong return this Black Friday.

🛍️ Black Friday deals spread across November to avoid shopping surges.

🤖 AI flash sales create real-time, personalized discounts.

💅 Beauty steals the show with limited-edition holiday bundles.

👖 Classic American brands see a major comeback this season.

🏬 Malls thrive with shopping, dining, and entertainment.

🗓️ With fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, each visit must drive more sales.

R. J. Hottovy, CFA , Head of Analytical Research

For many, "Black Friday" evokes images of shoppers rushing into stores at opening to grab the hottest holiday deals at steep discounts.

Retailers have used "door-busters" since the 1980s to attract in-store traffic with significant discounts on popular holiday items. While this strategy waned in the late 2010s as promotions shifted online, the past few years have seen a revival of door-busters and early morning Black Friday shopping.

The chart below highlights the percentage of Black Friday visits occurring between 5:00 AM and 9:00 AM at major superstore chains, including Target and Walmart. From 2017 to 2019, early morning visits steadily declined, bottoming out at 7% in 2019. However, this trend reversed in 2020 as retailers sought to draw shoppers back to stores after months of pandemic disruptions, and it accelerated in 2021 as consumers aimed to avoid product shortages caused by port congestion. In both 2022 and 2023, early morning visits remained above historical averages. With value-conscious shoppers driving demand throughout 2024, door-busters are expected to play a prominent role in this year's holiday promotions.

Ben Witten , Head of Real Estate Strategy

For Black Friday 2024, major retailers like Walmart, Target, Macy’s, Kohl’s, and Nordstrom plan to spread discounts across November, aiming to avoid peak shopping surges and encourage steady customer traffic. 

Walmart and Target will feature early events and exclusive member deals, while Macy’s, Kohl’s, and Nordstrom are expected to offer deep discounts on fashion, beauty, and home goods, with a focus on digital promotions and in-store experiences. Kohl’s will enhance deals with loyalty rewards, and Macy's and Nordstrom will likely feature designer and brand-focused sales.

Stephanie Atiase , VP of Marketing

AI-Powered Flash Sales Revolutionize Retail

Amazon’s Lightning Deals are getting an upgrade with AI-powered flash sales, revolutionizing how retailers drive urgency. 

By analyzing shopper data in real-time, AI predicts demand and tailors discounts for maximum appeal, creating hyper-personalized, time-sensitive offers for online and in-store shopping experiences. According to Placer.ai analytics, Black Friday 2023 saw a 300% increase in mall visits compared to the first three weeks of November, highlighting the continued importance of in-store shopping. Superstores also saw an 81% rise, demonstrating demand across retail formats.

I imagine that 2024 Black Friday will drive a greater increase in traffic. With AI, retailers can merge online precision with in-store experiences, offering exclusive, localized flash sales to boost engagement. This fusion of AI and instant gratification not only attracts deal hunters but also reshapes consumer expectations, making every second count in the holiday shopping frenzy.

Elizabeth Lafontaine , Director of Research

The specialty category that has dominated the last few holiday seasons? Beauty. 

When consumers are more conscious of spending across the industry, beauty has still been there to bring small joys to the holiday season as a stocking stuffer or full gift for loved ones. As we’ve observed throughout 2024, there has been a softening in traffic growth, which should make this holiday even more important to retailers than years prior. Ulta Beauty, the dominant force in both mass and prestige beauty, had strong traffic growth in October after a few months of softening visits, which could bode well for the peak holiday tentpole events.

Expect retailers to release limited edition items, bundles and sets, and fragrance gifts in the next few weeks to entice shoppers this holiday season. 

Caroline Wu , Director of Research

Classic American brands are back.  

With over centuries of shared existence, these logos that celebrate Americana are at the epicenter of all the trends we see converging - quiet luxury, prep, classic, and nostalgia. From kings of the runway like Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein, and Tommy Hilfiger, these brands evoke tradition, timelessness, and quality and are perfect  for a holiday dinner or celebration. Dependable workhorse brands like Levi’s, New Balance, and Carhartt are rugged yet stylish at the same time, and are perennially in fashion. If the last six months are any indication, be prepared for these heritage brands to get snapped up on Black Friday.

Ethan Chernofsky , SVP of Marketing

Miles Law states that ‘where you stand depends on where you sit,’ but for this coming Black Friday the phrase could be slightly adjusted to posit that ‘how you perform depends on where you sit.’

In this case, the ideal place to ‘sit’ seems to be a top tier mall.

Following a Back to School season where malls drove significant crowds, the power to combine a multitude of retail destinations under one roof with other experiences - dining, entertainment and coffee to name a few - also sitting under the same said roof, presents a potent mix. 

The kicker here is that foot traffic to these locations seems to be trending up already.

Visits to all three sub-segments of the Placer.ai Mall Index were up year over year the weeks beginning October 14th and 21st. Should this pattern hold at the onset of the new and extended holiday season, expect significant traffic and opportunity in the mall space.

But the key emphasis here needs to be on opportunity. A visit is a chance to sell, but it will demand that retailers have the right products that will win over wallet share compared to more experiential gifts and offerings.

Thomas Paulson , Director of Research & Business Development

Holiday 2024 looks like 2019 with a late Thanksgiving and five fewer days between it and Christmas.

How this looks in visits is shown in the graph below (department stores). As one can see, there is not an offset of more visits in the shortened 2019 vs. 2018. As such, each of those 2019 visits needs to generate more holiday sales than they did in 2018. As such, this is the year where retailers really need to keep up in their stocks, store standards, and helpful service standards.

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