Bloc Calls for Ceasefire in Lebanon

Thought for Thursday

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

 Bloc Calls for Ceasefire in Lebanon

As the international community continues to closely monitor the increasingly fragile situation in the Middle East, this morning a 12-member bloc have called for a 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon. The group, which is made up of the UK, US, Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar advocate that such a ceasefire would " provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement".

According to the Lebanese health ministry, some 550 people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes since Monday, with the IDF saying that they hit several dozen Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa region (located about 30 km east of Beirut) overnight. The IDF maintain that they are “continuing operating to dismantle and degrade Hezbollah's capabilities and terrorist infrastructure" and comes as Hezbollah continue to engage in cross-border attacks on Israel.

Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to arrive in New York later today to engage in bilateral meetings with senior figures of the international community at the UN General Assembly.

CAA Outlines Plan to Move Forward with Drones

This week, The UK Civil Aviation Authority outlined a roadmap future drone use across the country. The body expects to see drones commonplace by 2027, carrying out routine tasks such as “transporting specialised chemotherapy drugs to hospitals, mail to remote locations and even carrying defibrillators to emergencies.”

According to the CAA, the roadmap centres on two primary objectives, namely, launching beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) activities by the end of 2024 and establishing routine BVLOS operations by 2027. The key challenge here includes safely integrating drones within the UK’s airspace and at present BVLOS operations are chiefly tested in segregated airspace.

The report outlines how such objectives are of the utmost importance given that drones will need to be able to go beyond the visual line of sight if “we are to maximise the economic and social benefits of airborne drones”. Proponents also argue that when compared against petrol-based delivery, lightweight drones can cut CO2 emissions by as much as 99%.

The CAA’s report comes as Amazon hope to start drone delivery services by the end of the year, while trusts in the NHS have partnered with logistics companies to conduct tests which could help deliver prescriptions to patients across a wide area BVLOS. Trials have already taken place across the UK with the CAA conducting tests with six organisations – including retail delivery companies – which have looked to see how drones can be integrated into UK airspace. It’s worth noting that Amazon already conduct drone delivery in parts of California and Texas.

All Eyes on US Growth

At 1330 this afternoon, attention will turn to the release of US GDP figures as markets look for further insight into the health of the economy and the extent to which this could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy pathway following their 50bps cut earlier this month.

Here, the general market consensus is pointing to a 3% (annualised) print for growth across the second quarter of the year, in line with the second estimate and up 0.2 percentage points from preliminary estimates.

While US growth continues to outpace that of other major economies, (with quarter-on-quarter GDP hitting 0.6% in the UK, -0.1% in Germany and 0.2% in France over Q2 against the US’s second estimate of 3%), analysists continue to consider the impact that a slowing labour market could have on growth moving forward.

The US economy has also grown some 8% between Q4 2019 and Q4 2023, similarly surpassing the growth seen across the UK, Germany, France and Japan whose economies all expanded less than 2% over those four years.

With the release of US PCE figures, jobless claims and durable goods orders also being released at 1330, markets will be keeping a close eye on the performance of the US economy.