Breaking Free from the Diet Cycle: A Systematic Approach to Nutrition and Weight Management

Part 2: Expectations, Estimations, and Planning

Hey there, everyone!

Welcome back. I'm so happy to see so many of you reading part 1 and giving it some love.

Last week, we talked about how reaching your dream weight isn't a quick fix, but a long-term journey. We set the foundation by defining your "why" and visualizing your goal. Today, let's dive deeper into the practical side of things: managing expectations, estimating your progress, and creating a realistic plan.

Let's Talk Expectations

Let's start by addressing a common misconception. Many articles promise rapid weight loss, like "Lose 10kg in 2 weeks." However, shedding weight isn't as simple as following a quick-fix diet.

Remember the butter image from last week? Now see the picture below it demonstrates 1 kg or 2.2 lb of body fat. Losing this much requires burning approximately 7,000 to 9,000 calories. The exact number can vary slightly depending on the composition of the fat tissue. For our calculations, we'll use an average of 7,700 calories per kilogram (3,492 kcal per lb) of body fat.

How Much Weight Can I Lose?

Let's do a quick calculation. If you can cut 500 calories a day, you're looking at losing 65 g (0.14 lb) per day, this reflects 1.9 kg (4.3 lb) per month. Over a year, you could potentially lose around 23kg (51 lb). Sounds great, right?

But it is not such simple

Unfortunately losing weight isn't necessary a linear process. Your body is a complex system, and many factors can influence your progress. Important to consider are also the starting points. Let's explore some of them:

1. Diet History

• Number of Diets Tried: How many diets you've attempted in the past. Frequent dieting, especially extreme diets, can affect your metabolism and weight loss resistance.
• When You Tried Them: The timing of your past diets can provide insight into patterns of weight gain or loss. Reflect on whether you were successful and what challenges arose.
• Diet Type: Look at the types of diets (e.g., low-carb, intermittent fasting, calorie restriction). This helps to identify which strategies may have worked or failed based on your body's response.

2. Metabolic Rates

• Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR): This is the amount of energy your body burns at rest. It can be influenced by age, gender, weight, and muscle mass.
• Metabolic Adaptation: After multiple diets, your metabolism may slow down due to "yo-yo" dieting, making weight loss harder.

3. Body Composition

• Body Fat Percentage: Knowing your body fat percentage can give a more accurate picture of your health than weight alone. Muscle burns more calories than fat, so the more lean mass you have, the higher your metabolic rate.

4. Hormonal Balance

• Insulin Sensitivity: If you have issues with insulin resistance (common in conditions like type 2 diabetes or PCOS), it can affect how your body processes sugar and stores fat.
• Thyroid Function: Thyroid hormones regulate metabolism, and any imbalance can slow down or speed up your metabolic rate.
• Cortisol Levels: High stress and cortisol levels can lead to fat retention, especially in the abdominal area.

5. Age and Gender

• Age: As you age, your metabolism naturally slows, which can make weight loss more difficult. Hormonal changes during menopause or andropause also affect weight distribution.
• Gender: Men and women have different fat storage patterns and hormonal influences on weight.

6. Activity Level

• Daily Activity: Consider how active you are in your everyday life. This includes your job, hobbies, and overall movement.
• Exercise Routine: The type and intensity of exercise you do can affect how many calories you burn and influence fat loss or muscle gain.

7. Mental and Emotional Health

• Diet Mindset: Reflect on your relationship with food and dieting. Are you prone to emotional eating or food restrictions that lead to bingeing?
• Stress and Sleep: High stress and lack of sleep can interfere with your ability to lose weight and maintain healthy eating habits.

8. Medical Conditions

• Chronic Conditions: Conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, or heart disease may require special dietary considerations.
• Medications: Some medications can lead to weight gain or affect metabolism.

9. Nutritional Deficiencies

• Vitamin/Mineral Levels: Check for any nutritional deficiencies that could affect energy levels and metabolism (e.g., low vitamin D or iron).

10. Gut Health

• Digestive Issues: Poor digestion, bloating, or food intolerances can affect your energy levels and how you absorb nutrients, influencing your diet's success.

That's a lot to consider, but don't worry. We'll break it all down. To start, let's use a linear approach for our calculations.

To illustrate this, let's take a look at the following two diagrams:

This is my weight loss journey. I started in January 2023 after already trying various diets and hitting a plateau at 92kg. Even though I was exercising regularly, I wasn't seeing the results I wanted.

As you can see finally, I reached my goal weight on my 60th birthday in April 2024. The blue line represents a linear calculation based on a 317-calorie daily deficit. But lets now have a look to Renat’s data.

The yellow line represents the calculated weight loss, and the green line shows his actual progress. Impressive, right? One key difference between Renat and me was that he didn't have the same plateau I faced. Additionally, he experienced a rapid initial weight loss, likely due to factors like adding light sports and the Pareto principle.

The Pareto principle, also known as the 80/20 rule, states that 80% of the results come from 20% of the causes. In the context of weight loss, this might mean that 80% of your weight loss results come from 20% of your efforts, such as making significant changes to your diet or exercise routine.

Let's look at my high-level plan. I determined my target weight and the desired timeframe. Assuming a linear weight loss, I calculated a daily weight loss of 41 grams, which seemed achievable for me.

I defined my end weight and the start and end date, assuming that my body would lose its weight linear (see blue line above). It gave me 41 grams of weight loss per day which for me I found realistic.

Once you've reached this point, you can simply distribute your weekly weight loss goal (287g in my case) across your plan.

Let's recap what we've learned today:

1. Realistic expectations: Set achievable goals to avoid disappointment. Remember that progress isn't always linear. While linear planning is a helpful starting point, be prepared for ups and downs. Celebrate small victories along the way.
2. Realistic calculations: Estimate your weight loss and create a timeline based on your caloric balance. Understanding the relationship between calories in, calories out, and weight loss is crucial.
3. Structured planning: Develop a step-by-step plan to reach your goals. Weekly tracking is essential for monitoring your progress. Remember to be flexible and adjust your plan as needed, as you might progress faster or slower than anticipated.

 Btw: please see this planning example and think if this would be realistic and sustainable.

See you next week! We'll delve deeper into activity calories, basal metabolic rate, the ideal calorie deficit, visualizing your goals, the importance of tracking, PDCA cycles (Plan-Do-Check-Act), and SMART goals.

Best, Uwe