“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 37, 19th October 2018

The week that wasn’t

This was supposed to be the week when “The Deal” was done. But even before EU Leaders gathered in Brussels on Wednesday for the supposed “crunch” European Council summit, it was clear that nothing of significance was going to happen. Indeed, the most memorable image of the last three days was the German Chancellor, French President and Prime Ministers of Belgium and Luxembourg going for a pint in Le Grand Place as they had nothing better to do. (Angela Merkel actually stuck to red wine but, in keeping with all things Brexit, let’s not get hung up on minor details). 

The first indication that all was not well came last Sunday when UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was dispatched to European Commission HQ for an unscheduled audience with EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier. Earlier in the day it had been rumoured that an EU-UK withdrawal agreement had been reached at “negotiator level”. At that remained was sign-off from the politicians. Mr Raab’s message, conveyed on behalf of the British Government, did end in “off” but didn’t start with “sign.” Predictably, the sticking point was the Irish border. As I explained last week, Theresa May has proposed that the UK stays in a customs union with the EU after Brexit until a technological solution is found but wants a time limit on this. The EU does not. Cue stalemate.

Upon arrival in Brussels on Wednesday, either Theresa May or Mr Barnier – both are crediting/blaming the other - threw yet another curveball into the game. Regular readers will be aware that last December it was agreed that the UK would stay in both the EU Customs Union and the Single Market for a “transition period” until December 2020 whilst a free trade deal with the EU is seemingly agreed. Then it dawned on someone that 21 months was never realistic. So, on Wednesday, Mrs May hinted to fellow EU leaders that she would be open to an extension “for a period of some months” (British officials privately admit that they mean a year). Mr Barnier responded by hinting that he had already made that offer.  And this is now the crux of the latest political whirlwind to hit the British Prime Minister. Tory Brexiteers hate the idea as it would effectively keep the UK in the EU for at least another 12 months and cost around £15 billion in extra payments to Brussels for every year the arrangement continues. More worryingly for Mrs May, many Tory Remainers loathe the concept just as much. Former Education Secretary Nicky Morgan said that an extension would be "unhelpful" and leave the UK in a "Brexit holding pattern."

Speaking in Brussels yesterday, Mrs May underlined how muddled the situation - and arguably, her leadership - has now become when she appeared to simultaneously suggest that she was open and not open to extending the transition period as a means of solving the Irish border issue. “What has now emerged is the idea that an option to extend could be a further solution to this,” she said. “What we are not doing, we are not standing here proposing an extension.” I think I need a lie down. 

A new hope  

The British Veterinary Association published a very helpful briefing today which highlights the grave dangers of a no-deal Brexit for trade, animal health and food safety. The problems, of course, centre on the ongoing shortage of professionally-trained vets and the likelihood of an even greater dearth of foreign vets should the EU-UK negotiations ultimately fail. However, I do like to bring you at least some positive news each week and perhaps there may be some small slither of hope that we can still call the whole thing off. 

To explain, a new row broke out in Westminster yesterday when UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab indicated that any House of Commons motion to approve a Brexit deal would be unamendable, thereby preventing MPs from putting forward changes or conditions to acceptance. The word is that the Government will not get away with this ruse. If that is indeed the case, the way will be clear for the Commons to vote on approving the agreement on condition that it is first put to the British people in, yes, a second referendum. I wish them every success on that one. 

Meanwhile in America… 

Not content this week with attacking climate change scientists, defending Saudi rulers and making derogatory personal comments about women, last night Donald Trump praised a Republican Congressman who “body slammed” a journalist, referring to him as “my guy.” Greg Gianforte was ordered to pay $385, complete 40 hours of community service and 20 hours of anger management counselling as punishment for the assault. But that did not stop the US President mimicking a person being thrown forcefully to the ground at a campaign rally. With the American midterm elections now just over two weeks away and with Trump’s metaphorical safety net of a Republican-controlled Congress at serious risk, his comments are set to become even more toxic in the days ahead.    

Have a splendid weekend.     

Jason 

Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director