“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 76, 19th July 2019
Rise of the “Gaukeward Squad”
Incoming UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered his first major Brexit defeat yesterday – even though he is not due to take office until Wednesday. By the substantial margin of 41 votes, MPs supported an amendment to the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill which blocks the suspension of the UK Parliament between 9 October and 18 December unless a new Stormont administration is formed. And with political agreement between the DUP and Sinn Fein retaining all the characteristics of an impossible dream, it seems that Johnson’s ability to force through a no-deal Brexit against the wishes of the House of Commons has been seriously hampered.
17 Conservative MPs supported the “rebel” amendment, including Digital Minister Margot James who resigned from the Government. Another 30 Tories chose to abstain, including four Cabinet Ministers – Justice Secretary David Gauke, Chancellor Philip Hammond, Business Secretary Greg Clark and International Development Secretary Rory Stewart. It is being suggested that all four could resign their posts on Wednesday immediately after Johnson gains power. Up to a dozen pro-Remain junior Ministers may join them to form what is being dubbed the “Gaukeward Squad.” And they could even have an additional recruit by the name of Theresa May. Their first mission will be to stop no-deal, hence yesterday’s Commons ambush. What happens after that will depend on events – which they have every intention of shaping for the good of the country they have served with distinction.
The need for this band of principled warriors to step forward has been underscored by the publication of two reports in the past 24 hours warning about the perils of a no-deal outcome. This morning, the cross-party Commons Brexit Select Committee said that leaving the EU without a deal would be "at best a foolhardy gamble and at worst lead to severe disruption" across the country. And yesterday’s detailed analysis from the independent and highly-respected Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was even more damning. It predicted that a no-deal Brexit would plunge the UK into a recession that would shrink the economy by 2%, raise unemployment by 5%, send house prices down by 10% and increase public borrowing by £30 billion a year. The OBR added that its forecast was less severe than those of the Bank of England and the Treasury and was "by no means a worst-case scenario." And yet Boris Johnson remains determined to propel our once great nation into a black hole of calamity and fear on 31 October. The Gaukeward Squad might yet be our saviours.
“Loyalty to country always, loyalty to Government when it deserves it” - Mark Twain
As we await the unedifying sight of Johnson entering 10 Downing Street next week, Conservative MPs can expect to hear pleas for loyalty from those around him. There are rumours that his campaign manager, Iain Duncan Smith, could be invited to serve as his Deputy Prime Minister. That is the same failed Tory Leader Iain Duncan Smith who, as the unofficial Chief Whip of the Maastricht rebels in the 1990s, arguably did more than anyone else to destroy John Major’s premiership and put the Labour Party in power for 13 years.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s name has been suggested as a possible Chief Secretary to the Treasury. That is the same Jacob Rees-Mogg who justified his opposition to Theresa May’s withdrawal Agreement on the grounds that it jeopardised Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom. And then he voted for it. “I ratted!” he told his former admirers in Ulster. There is talk of Michael Gove leaving DEFRA and becoming either Housing or Transport Secretary. That is the same Michael Gove who, as Boris Johnson’s campaign manager in the 2016 Conservative leadership election, knifed his man and stood for the job himself. And there is the soon to be new Prime Minister. That is the same man who last week refused to publicly back Britain’s Ambassador to the United States despite Sir Kim Darroch simply doing his job. Sir Kim, and his fellow UK Ambassadors around the world, have represented their country’s interests with dignity and honour. I have little faith that Boris Johnson and his band of duplicitous power-grabbers will do anything of the sort.
Meanwhile in America…
It’s been a particularly bleak week Stateside with Donald Trump firing volley after volley of abuse in the direction of four Democratic Congresswomen for the ‘crimes’ of being neither white nor male. Whilst all four are American citizens, one - Ilhan Omar – was born in Somalia and has therefore been in the eye of the Trump tornado of hate. At a rally on Wednesday evening, the US President looked-on approvingly at supporters chanting “send her back” after he accused Congresswoman Omar of “looking down with contempt on hard-working Americans.” It was characteristically contemptible behaviour from the man Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to make his closest ally.
Whilst bullies like to think of themselves as tough guys, they rarely are. And this week Joe Biden, Trump’s likely Democratic opponent in next year’s White House race, sought to bolster his physical credentials for taking him on. Interviewed by MSNBC, the former Vice President issued a physical challenge: “Come on Donald, come on man. How many push-ups do you want to do here, pal?” 76-year-old Biden has form in this area. Speaking in 2018, Biden said of Trump: "If we were in high school, I'd take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him." Responding to Biden, 73-year-old Trump said he would "kick his ass" and that doing so would be "easy." It’s reminiscent of two bald men arguing over a comb.
Please enjoy your weekend!
Jason
Dr Jason Aldiss BEM
Managing Director, Eville & Jones
You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss