“Brexit Brief” – ISSUE 81, 23rd August 2019
Well-fed Johnson heading for detention
I hope you found my first “Brexit Made Simple” guide to be of interest. Focussing on the Irish backstop, I also tweeted copies to senior EU figures just to remind them of the issue’s importance. But, to be fair, this week’s events suggest they needed little persuasion that a backstop is the only viable option to avoid a hard Irish border should Brexit happen.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson (a description I still struggle to take seriously) was in Berlin and Paris this week to tell the German Chancellor and French President they had got it wrong on the backstop. But they had already decided to call his bluff. Speaking at a joint news conference with Johnson on Wednesday, Angela Merkel gave him 30 days to come up with an alternative solution to ensure the border could remain open after Brexit. Johnson replied: “There are abundant solutions which are proffered, which have already been discussed.” But he failed to mention any of them. He then sought to move the blame on to his predecessor, Theresa May, adding: “I don't think, to be fair, they have so far been very actively proposed over the last three years by the British Government.” He again avoided saying what “they” were. A dinner of tuna tartare, Brandenburg venison and chocolate tart was served shortly afterwards to give Johnson time to think.
He arrived in Paris yesterday, noticeably well fed but no closer to offering the watching world any more details about his “abundant solutions.” He told the assembled press pack that he was "looking forward to developing those thoughts in the next few weeks." An interesting observation, given that they have apparently been kicking around for three years. President Macron’s response suggested that he also believed Johnson’s bluff had indeed been called by Mrs Merkel. He said that there needed to be “visibility” about what Johnson was proposing “in 30 days” but added that the Irish backstop was “indispensable” and not “legal quibbling.” A lunch of pulled lamb and potato gratin was served shortly afterwards to give the UK Prime Minister even more time to think.
There are 28 lunches and 28 dinners between now and Johnson’s deadline to submit his homework. May he eat well and think hard, but I suspect he is heading for an epic fail.
Being welcoming to our EU friends isn’t Priti
Last weekend, Priti Patel, Johnson’s hard-right choice as UK Home Secretary, sought to turn the UK Government’s immigration policy on its head by claiming that EU freedom of movement into the UK would end on 31 October 2019 if she achieves her dream of a no-deal Brexit. Her predecessor, Sajid Javid, said last year: “If there was a no-deal, we won’t be able to immediately distinguish between those Europeans that were already here before 29 March [the then-exit date] and those who came after. There will need to be some kind of sensible transition period.” Indeed, in June 2016, just days before the referendum, Ms Patel – who was sacked by Theresa May for lying – pledged that there would be no change in the status of EU citizens living in the UK after Brexit. But, handed the opportunity by her Vote Leave campaign colleague Johnson to be nasty to foreigners, she tried to take it by allowing Home Office officials to brief journalists that freedom of movement would cease immediately upon no-deal.
Thankfully, her plan for prejudice is not going to happen. Yesterday, Oxford University’s highly-respected Migration Observatory said it would be impossible for the UK to implement this plan on Brexit Day as employers would have no means of telling if EU nationals had arrived after 31 October. Spokesperson Madeleine Sumption said: “Even if the Government knew exactly what it wanted the post-Brexit immigration system to look like, it wouldn't be possible to implement it immediately after a no-deal Brexit. That's because any new restrictions on EU migration can't be enforced unless UK employers know which EU citizens have been here for years and which ones arrived post-Brexit and have to comply with the new immigration regime." So, yet more bluffing from Team Johnson and yet more homework left undone.
Meanwhile in America…
Donald Trump made a familiar call in advance of this weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz by demanding that Russia be added to the club. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, he claimed that Russia had been ejected from what used to be the G8 by Barack Obama “because Putin outsmarted him.” In truth, Russia was thrown out because it annexed Crimea from Ukraine. But, for reasons no one is quite able to fathom, Trump never lets the truth get in the way of an opportunity to grovel to his best comrade Vladimir. “I think it’s much more appropriate to have Russia in,” the US President said. “I could certainly see it being the G8 again. If someone would make that motion, I would be disposed to think about it favourably. They should let Russia come back in, because we should have Russia at the negotiating table."
Also this week, Trump cancelled his planned two-day state visit to Denmark – due to begin in just 10 days’ time - after Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rejected his request to buy Greenland. (Feel free to read that again). The President even floated the idea of a part-exchange on the autonomous Danish island in return for a US territory. Following the lead of his Russian counterpart, perhaps he is now considering annexing it instead.
Enjoy your Bank Holiday weekend!
Jason
Dr Jason Aldiss BEM
Managing Director, Eville & Jones
You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss