Britain's Future In The Balance

By Nigel Lake

A century after the Great War marked the sunset of Victorian British culture and the age of empire, the UK's future once again hangs in the balance. Like the great storm of 1987, the effects of the upcoming general election will be felt by generations of British people. With the Conservative party led by a compulsive liar, serial philanderer and convicted lawbreaker, and the opposition Labour party led by a an old-style socialist tainted by antisemitism, the people of the "United Kingdom" face an awful choice.

So, how on earth do you choose who deserves your vote, when your strongest preference is probably to wipe the political slate clean and start again? Unlike poker, however, we can't simply throw in our national hand. We must play the cards we've been dealt, no matter how ugly they look. Conventional sources of guidance - major news channels and TV stations - are so deeply entwined with politicians that most are no longer worth the paper or screens they are printed on. Meanwhile social media in general - and Facebook in particular - has announced publicly that it will gladly broadcast misinformation and lies for politicians and other election-influencers from around the world, so long as they are prepared to pay.

So every voter needs a strategy for choosing how to vote come election day.

It's the economy, stupid.

To start, set aside all the noise and consider the implications of whether and how Britain leaves the EU. The vast majority of economists agree that this will undermine the country's growth for decades to come. Even ardent Tory Brexiteers now say any benefits may take fifty years or more to be realised, by which time most of today's voters will be in the ground.

Meanwhile, the country will be split in two, with a hard border down the Irish Sea. In one of the greatest ironies of the Brexit debate, Boris Johnson argues that this is a good thing, because it will allow Ireland to enjoy all the benefits of open trade with Europe. Quite likely this arrangement will lead to Northern Ireland voting for independence, a path that Scotland appears almost certain to follow in the near term too. Thus the three-hundred year old union is likely to be broken, and Britain will be Great no more.

Thus the three-hundred year old union is likely to be broken, and Britain will be Great no more.

For those who travel, or export or import goods, life will get much harder. I travel a lot, and run a business that operates globally, so I know first-hand the pain that this will cause. Worse, for Little Britain at least, it will make European locations much more appealing for international businesses and cross-border investment than the UK, as has already been seen time and time again over the last few years.

In making these points, I am not seeking to argue for or against Brexit itself (though it will be clear that I think this will be terrible for the UK). Rather I want those who make this choice to be clear what exactly it is they are voting for.

Politics, politics everywhere, and not a leader in sight

Do you trust the polls and the politicians, let alone the pundits commentating on all this? Me neither. I like hard data, and my day job has long involved analysis of large, complex data sets and using this to help inform critical decisions. So, this time around, I decided it was time to develop my own electoral swing model, so that I could better understand how national polling might translate into constituency by constituency results.

I'll come back to the how and why in a moment, but let's start with the conclusions from my work. First, there is every chance that the Conservative party will win a decent majority in this election, particular now that Farage has thrown his "no-deal only" convictions in the dumpster to partner with the Tories. As an aside, expect to see one Lord Farage as part of a Conservative ministry if the latter wins the election. Conversely, there is virtually no chance that Labour will will a majority in its own right. Career pollsters have put the odds at something like 1%, which seems about right to me.

Second, if the 60% of voters who oppose the Conservatives are tactical in who they support, then there is every chance that Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates can out-poll the Conservatives in about 80 of the more marginal electorates. This would lead to a balanced parliament that much more closely resembles the popular vote. Most appealingly, this would force the extremist political operators to ditch their more extreme policies. Like the USA, this will doubtless result in political stalemate in a number of areas. Though that may be unappealing over the long term, as it has been in the United States, over the near term it should save Britain from the worst excesses of today's politicians. If you hate where Boris Johnson is taking Britain's economy, society and morality, then rest assured that it's not just safe to vote tactically, it's essential that you do.

If you hate where Boris Johnson is taking Britain's economy, society and morality, then rest assured that it's not just safe to vote tactically, it's essential that you do.

Third, it's important to understand that the likely result at this election is incredibly volatile. By this I mean that, if you try to predict the outcome based on national polling, small changes in assumptions have a massive impact on the projected result. In my analysis (and that of many others), the projected outcome ranges from a 60+ seat Tory majority to a much more balanced outcome. In the latter case, the Liberal Democrats will likely determine which party forms a government, whether in majority coalition or single party minority form.

As you think through what the national polls mean, remember that the electoral map in Wales and Scotland is very different. For example, all the support for the SNP relates to Scottish voting alone. Similarly, support for other parties is concentrated in particular constituencies, and you must adjust for this too. My own analysis does exactly this, and then applies the national shift in support for each party to the result that each party achieved in the last election on a constituency by constituency basis. A better analysis would correlate outcomes at each election with national polling trends, as well as taking into account the accuracy of different pollsters at different time horizons before an election. This being said, there are many individual factors that will play out in individual constituencies in this election - so if there are large polls in individual electorates by reputable independent pollsters, you should definitely be guided by these.

Philosophy 101: What the hell is going on?

The decline of British politics, from Blair's spin and 'truthiness" to Boris Johnson's wall-to-wall lies and misinformation, is truly horrific to behold.

The decline of British politics, from Blair's spin and 'truthiness" to Boris Johnson's wall-to-wall lies and misinformation, is truly horrific to behold. Similar trends and tactics have emerged in other countries in the last couple of years too. So, make no mistake. These leaders may present themselves as folksy, dim-witted blusterers, but what's going on behind closed doors is far more sophisticated.

Around the world, a bold attempt to undermine truth is under way. This includes attacks on subject matter experts, scientists and science in general, impartial fact-checking organisations and much more. I see this daily in the asinine discussion of climate change - though luckily the UK is so well-advanced in addressing the transition to renewable energy that this factor is not really at play.

Those that support Boris Johnson, and his collaborators and fellow-travelers in countries like the USA and Australia, will be tempted to celebrate his success. To you I say this: a war on truth is a war on democracy. Very few countries have prospered under dictators, and all too often those that enabled the rise of a totalitarian leader are thrown under the bus themselves as the political expediency of the moment changes. Never forget that the future that these leaders want for the country is not the future they are choosing for themselves - politicians have their own line at passport control, for example.

...a war on truth is a war on democracy

Just as bad, those campaigning to undermine truth have also abandoned moral tenets on which our society is based. Children born outside marriage are, of course, nothing new to political leadership around the world. But have we ever had a UK Prime Minister who has previously been sacked for dishonesty, prevents disclosure of a bipartisan report into electoral interference by Russia, and has an indeterminate number of children?

Longer term, the rejection of science, evidence-based debate and age-old notions of integrity will be terrible for the country. Indeed, this is precisely how the beginning of the Second Great Dark Age would look.

The Power of Balance

Britain's future hangs in the balance. The solution to these challenges is the balance that a hung parliament would provide for Britain's future. For the first time in many decades, the best outcome for the United Kingdom must surely be a parliament whose composition reflects the composition of the popular vote. This would force political leaders to balance their own more extreme positions, and indeed to fight the extremist elements in their own parties, to arrive at a better-considered, more nuanced, more broadly supported set of policies.

Britain's future hangs in the balance. The solution to these challenges is the balance that a hung parliament would provide for Britain's future.

The United Kingdom's success over the last three hundred years has been built, at least in part, on a robust democratic system, the rule of law, and the importance of "my word is my bond" integrity. The current UK government has demonstrated time and again that it is prepared to torch all of these in pursuit of power and profit - both in politics and in some cases in their private lives.

With Britain's future hanging by a thread, it's imperative that you vote, and vote tactically to support politicians who can return respect, reason and trust to Westminster. Think through the dynamics in your constituency carefully. Trust your judgement over what you read in much of the press. Switch off Facebook for the next month (I've deleted my account entirely), and think long and hard about the character and morality you expect of your leaders.

That I can even describe the current Prime Minister as a "compulsive liar, serial philanderer and convicted law-breaker" with no fear of litigation is itself a damning indictment of the woeful leadership we now endure. Make sure you think hard, make your own voice heard over the next few weeks, and vote tactically when the time comes.