Call of the decade or Embarrassment of a gigantic proportion?
Hot on the heels of the McKinsey vs BCG debate on the future of tokenization, Standard Chartered waded into the battle with a paper that is either going to be the call of the decade or the embarrassment of a gigantic proportion.
SC forecasts a tokenization market that is 15x of McKinsey’s base case. With this, Standard Chartered and McKinsey represent the top and bottom range of the forecast numbers.
Here are the 3 main pillars to SC’s forecast:
After reading through the 18 pages report, I am unconvinced about the first 2 points. Though I am quite a fan of the rationale behind point 3.
Let’s unpack the paper and see why we agree/disagree with these key points.
$30.1 trillion - best call or giant fail
“The total value of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, standing at around USD 5 billion by early 2024, primarily across commodities, private credit, and US treasuries… With the current market trends, we expect demand for overall tokenized real-world assets to reach up to USD 30.1 trillion by 2034”
It is not clear to me what exactly SC saw in the current market trends that led them to the $30.1 trillion number.
In fact, if we dig into the current market trend, at $5 billion using SC’s own number, I am not sure what type of extrapolation assumptions are made to take tokenized commodities, private credit and US treasuries to that number.
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5moOf the three firms making predictions, who has the heaviest bags?
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6moGreat write up as usual, Harvey. Thanks for sharing. Really interesting seeing all these numbers from reputable players outside of the web3 echo chamber. If it’s $2T to $30T+ I think it’ll be good for tokenization in the big picture no matter where it lands.
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6moFill in the blank. The Standard Chartered prediction of 30 trillion market cap is ____ ? Suggestions a. Brave b. Glorious c. Wait. What did they say? d. …..
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