CAN AFRICA TRANSITION TO NET ZERO ECONOMY ON THE TIGER'S TAIL IN 2022

In most African states, the carbon neutral future is looking bright as the energy transition is taking shape. But despite this there are still complicated twists and turns that can derail commitment. CoP26 brought with its own undertakers in defunding gas and placing new barriers to funding new projects in fossil fuel. Its major undoing it did not completely exorcise ghost of the Kyoto Protocol. EU states are supposed to be avid proponents are the ones now bent on resurrecting ghost of Kyoto protocol which PA almost succeeded in vanquishing by reinventing gas hence upturning promises and pledges made at Glasgow.

What this reveals, of course, is that we have not heard the last of gas flaring in Africa as the global ecological space is not without policies competing with the global climate objective such as the rebranding of gas which works at cross-purposes with decarbonizing the global economy. Moreover, the gas impasse between EU and Russia vividly explicates gap in energy generation within EU. With policies of Glasgow insisting on removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this could derail such commitment making decarbonization an optical illusion since there are winners and losers. The winners, sorry to say, are non-Paris Compliant states.

For Africa, this attempt is nothing but part of the musical chairs and merry-go-round approach of capital which echoes Eurocentric ecological norms. EU’s contextualising and reconceptualising emission removal criteria when faced with energy expedience is changing what was once deemed as bridge technology into ‘dirty’ at Glasgow and now reframed into a bridge source of energy in the third wave of conceptualization. What this reveals is that the Glasgow summit document is not a panacea for achieving carbon neutral world.

When societies that are promoting the so-called German's Energiewende renewable energy programme are seem plying route with carbon laden pathway, then, Africa must sit up to keenly watch ensuing drama from the current dramatic personae in the decarbonization space. They should also note the chicanery of defunding gas and pursuing gas which negates gains of decarbonization achieved in the PA. This goes beyond reinventing the current EU’s destructive entropic dynamics to a new thinking on energy security. A new thinking aimed at demystifying the crucial divergence between energy security and energy sovereignty must be embraced by all not a select few. For now, there is no such end at sight since gas is now become the new elixir.

Moreover, gas foster father (petroleum) is deemed for a long shelve life and it behooves the world community to see it in this light. But running with the hare and hunting with hounds of EU cannot end GHG emissions. The degenerative tendency of gas to nurture negative change is well known. There is no doubt re-framing of gas will only result in unbridled loss of biodiversity which, in turn, will magnify existing tension between competing interests geared towards resolving the lop-sided ecological integrity. So, EU reinvention of gas as bridge energy source’s only major achievement is optimisation of greed which is part of capital’s endless endeavour.

From this, Africa should realise that the central issue in the years to come will be how quickly they come into terms with current reality using their abundant energy resource in resolving their carbon dependency. Demonizing consumption and production of fossil fuels as evil in daytime while in the night surreptitiously promoting gas will not suffice. Net zero transformation should not be seen merely as a green symbolic gesture from businesses in mature economies when waved, viola, the carbon impasse is resolved. It should be seen for its real potential of opening new pathways to an all-encompassing change. The priority focus, therefore, should be in embracing the ideology of change through the economy not working against it. A priority focus is in generating wealth, not as the only means to enhance necessary conditions to meet present day challenges.

For Africa, the way out of the present economic logjam is not to be a victim of change but to act as positive change agents. As such the continent should be apprehensive of changing global power constellation which is no longer in favour of those who rely solely on their erstwhile colonial benefactors for policy guidance and handouts. The new emphasis is on national interest based on international cooperation. However, self-interested policy output should be the guiding thread of all major international interactions.

There is doubtful moral in transitioning to net zero future on the tail of the tiger. The tiger, in this case, are green capitalists who are re-contriving gas paradigm that by no means is a panacea to the complexities impeding transition to a low-carbon world.  In the gas greed agenda, it is clear that their tail is being wagged by an economic dog. This new imposition of gas represents a genuine intrusion into the socioeconomic milieu of most states in Africa since they have embraced change within their respective NDC. Hence rebranding gas has nurtured seeds capable of entrenching inequality and marginalisation of the people.

The imperative for strengthening gas markets for low-energy industries is high. We have the lessons of Russia gas impasse and China’s pursuing two competing goals here with us. They have provided us a new lens on how Africa should look at growth through a cross-critical local, national and global environmental threshold, but still with one eye widely opened in order to take advantage of what is considered the 'brown' resource-intensive pathways yet, is vitiated in some places and considered the new elixir in others. The future belongs to the bold. Russia and China are bold countries riding the tiger not holding the tiger by the tail.