Can the “frenemy coalition” turn Syria into a democracy?
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There is legitimate concern that despite the horrific atrocities committed by Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, and his despotic regime, the country’s future could be worse. Syria is home to a large number of ethnic and religious groups, and the US and Russia have maintained military bases within its borders. To say it’s complicated is an understatement.
Russia abandoned its support of Mr Assad’s army as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) advanced on Damascus, and Iran also failed to back it up. That Mr Assad’s regime was helped by Iran and Russia, which were both occupied elsewhere, created an opportunity for HTS to take over large parts of Syria. The country also has a complicated relationship with its neighbours, Turkey and Israel. The former is concerned about the ongoing clashes between the Arab-dominated rebel coalition and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Israel is now seeking to neutralise the country’s chemical weapons.
Domestically, Syria is home to a number of ethnic and religious groups that do not have a history of collaborating for a larger common good. Yet the leader of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Jolani), appears to have engaged in a significant diplomatic effort over many months that has allowed HTS to enact a peaceful takeover of much of the country.
The collaboration among key rebel factions in their recent offensive against the Assad regime indicates a strong alignment of shared goals, which could positively influence the formation of a new government in the near future. HTS is likely to gain the support of local Arab militias, Druze groups, diverse rebel factions—including the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA)—and the Turkish-supported Syrian National Army (SNA). This coalition of former frenemies could provide a solid foundation for establishing a unity government. Concerns about HTS's extreme Islamist ideology and its declared intention to establish an Islamic government in Syria are diminishing, at least for the time being. HTS's leader has been working to rebrand the group, fostering co-operation with various Christian, Alawite, Druze and other groups.
As a new transitional government is established, probably structured along religious and ethnic lines, we expect significant challenges in addressing the diverse interests of Syria's competing factions. The UN is preparing to address the stipulations of the 2015 Resolution 2254 of the Security Council, which laid out conditions for a ceasefire. The resolution stresses the need to build coalitions, but at present there are no official channels between the international community and the HTS government. So far the “frenemy coalition” is holding, but it is early days, and much will need to be done—and quickly—to prevent Syria from becoming a failed state. With that said, the euphoria is palpable and seems likely to give HTS a bit of runway to achieve its ambitious goals to create a democracy where minority populations’ rights are respected.
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As a new transitional government is established we expect significant challenges in addressing the diverse interests of Syria's competing factions.
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1wHTS seems to have learned a lesson from America’s disastrous betrayal of Iraqi armed forces after toppling Saddam. They had promised to hand over the country to them and had secured their support based on this; instead they disbanded them. That caused a huge force of highly trained unemployed soldiers who morphed into ISIS or joined Al Qaeda to become America’s and the West’s enemies. But will Syria become another Libya? Russia will try to make it so in order to salvage its image and its bases which are the only warm water naval bases it has. Iran has taken a beating. It sunk around $50 billion in Syria, their Foreign Minister was in Damascus 3 days before its fall doing a photo-op having shawarma on the streets of downtown Damascus, and Assad fled to Moscow. Not Iran.