This week's edition of IPD's Canada-China Brief covers the recently-hosted 2023 Indo-Pacific Strategy Forum in Ottawa, Trudeau's encounter with Xi Jinping at APEC, and more.
First, here is the latest from IPD:
IPD'S ROUNDUP
The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy and the Canada West Foundation were proud to co-host the third annual Indo-Pacific Strategy Forum (IPSF 2023) on December 4-5, 2023 in downtown Ottawa. Watch the full programme of panels and keynote remarks now.
Comments made at IPSF that advocated for Canada to propose creative ways to push for Taiwan's CPTPP accession forward were featured in an article for Nikkei with the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada's Vina Nadjibulla noting that "CPTPP accession should be based on merit and not geopolitics."
Keynote remarks at IPSF 2023 from Export Development Canada CEO Mairead Lavery about the expansion of Canadian trade offices in the region were featured in Nikkei in which she highlighted that "the imperative for Japan to trade with Canada" in light of complementary areas including energy security.
For The National Interest, IPD Deputy Director Younes Zangiabadi and Paul Dziatkowiec, Director of Mediation and Peace Support at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, argue for a collaborative approach between China and the United States that de-escalates tensions and works towards a sustainable political resolution between Israel and Palestine.
For The Hill, Senior Fellow Andrew Latham writes that "a policy of containment or outright demonization of China would be counterproductive, potentially leading to a dangerous cycle of rivalry. Instead, a more nuanced approach is needed, one that combines firmness with diplomacy."
IPSF 2023
In Ottawa, Officials and Diplomats Talk China and Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy
At IPSF 2023, Beijing emerged as a recurring theme of discussion including in keynote remarks by Major-General Greg Smith, expert panels, and an ambassador roundtable featuring representatives from Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia.
On China — Speaking for the Department of National Defence, Major-General Smith repeatedly referenced Beijing and related security matters:
- In global terms, Smith stated that "our security environment is once again defined by strategic competition — the effective management of which is critical" as competition is "marked by efforts to disrupt the rules-based international order."
- Smith touted Canadian naval operations and how "their contributions in upholding rules-based international order have been well noted across the region, specifically when HMCS Montreal and Ottawa conducted three Taiwan Straight transits in company with the U.S."
- Questioned on what Canada's response will be to an uptick in aerial and maritime encounters with Beijing in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, Smith asserted that "our strategy is to keep doing what we're doing, which is reinforce the rules-based international order."
- Underscoring dialogue, Smith stated that "I'm the guy that has to talk to the Chinese defence attaché here in town. We have respectful discussions... having problems is not the time to cross your arms [and] walk out of the room. It's time to keep talking."
- Responding to Counsellor Pang Hanzhao of the Chinese Embassy, Smith said both sides agree that "we want to reduce the risk of any military activities" as "we don't want to risk Chinese military personnel. We don't want to risk Canadian military personnel."
ASEAN looks for inclusivity — In IPSF's first panel on day one, Southeast Asian perspectives on approaching Beijing came to the fore:
- Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a former Indonesian Deputy Secretary for Political Affairs, noted that with Washington and Tokyo's respective Indo-Pacific strategies, "there was a perception at least from our part of the world that this is more aimed against China."
- Kai Ostwald of the University of British Columbia stated that "there's real fear again that the rules-based order has implied within it the inevitability of conflict between China and the United States... a common sentiment around Southeast Asia is that the region has more to lose from great power tensions than any other."
- Deanna Horton, former Canadian Ambassador to Vietnam, underscored how "ASEAN doesn't want to have to choose... they don't like China so much but on the other hand they are dependent on China" but also "don't like when the U.S. is flexing its muscles," adding that Canada can serve as an additional partner.
- Alice Ba of the University of Delaware suggested that "states are trying to still keep these avenues open to work with China [while] taking some other steps to push back in other ways — but it's important to maintain the dialogue [and] similarly inclusive institutions."
Regional security in flux — Growing consciousness around managing the security dimensions of China's rise was a prevalent theme:
- Karthik Nachiappan of the National University of Singapore frankly stated that "India's security interests almost all boil down to China — managing, deterring, containing. They won't say 'containing' but 'constraining' China's rise. India doesn't want to live in a regional order dominated by China" so its security policy is guided by this.
- IPD Senior Fellow Andrew Latham argued that "the Chinese leadership thinks about America's grand strategy as a containment strategy intended to bring down the regime" in light of new Cold War rhetoric and fears of encirclement.
- Characterizing increasing U.S. defence cooperation within China's neighbourhood, the American Enterprise Institute's Zack Cooper said that "what's actually happening in some of these countries is more like self-encirclement by China" due to its own behaviour "that's triggered this response from countries in the region."
- Given the Camp David pact brokered by the U.S. between Seoul and Tokyo, the Stimson Center's Yuki Tatsumi suggested that this year's summit shows that all three "are really on the same page now when it comes to its outlook on the region."
A year after the IPS — Commentators have recognized the complications of implementing a regional strategy amid cold ties with Beijing:
- Lynette Ong of the Munk School asserted that although Washington and Ottawa regularly coordinate in positioning vis-a-vis China, "Canada is actually excluded [from] various U.S.-led initiatives and arrangements" which is "hampering our capacity or the perception of our capacity to stand firm against China."
- IPD Senior Fellow Jeremy Paltiel observed that "Canada has the worst relationship with China of any G7 nation and has a worse relationship with China than any of the United States' Asian allies. That was not a goal of the IPS but it puts us in an awkward situation in this Asian outreach."
- The Business Council of Canada's Trevor Kennedy highlighted how several Canadian allies have "restored a certain level of high-level engagement without compromising values or really compromising anything" with relation to China, a situation that for Ottawa "is something to at least consider."
Indo-Pacific ambassadors reflect — Regional representatives in Ottawa opened up on Canada's past and future presence in Asia:
- Ambassador Maria Andrelita Austria of the Philippines recalled Canadian-facilitated workshops on pre-emptive security in the South China Sea before the construction of artificial installations, saying that "the most important part will be the [IPS] pillar that says active and engaged... I would add 'consistent'."
- In a nod to Foreign Minister Joly's recent speech on 'pragmatic diplomacy', Austria called the remarks "highly appreciated" as "we take this as having a broader understanding of the context upon which these [foreign policy] values operate."
- Japanese Ambassador Yamanouchi Kanji stated that the Arctic is "becoming a very dangerous spot because the Chinese and Russians [are] sort of enhancing the activities there. So Canada has to address those realities," including through its military defence update.
- The Republic of Korea's Ambassador Lim Woongsoon highlighted the opportunities for meeting energy security needs and how "we need to do more in importing LNG from Canada since there are so many advantages," especially as there is "no geopolitical risk."
- Australian High Commissioner Scott Ryan highlighted that Ottawa holds "the values and aspirations that many of us do to defend and propagate the international order in our region," particularly one "under more geostrategic pressure than it has been in decades."
Whither economic security? — Experts converged on the need to understand that great power competition has endangered global trade governance:
- Kristen Hopewell of the University of British Columbia noted that the WTO's power has "essentially collapsed in large part due to conflict between the U.S. and China... we also see the two biggest powers in the multilateral trading system rampantly violating the rules."
- Stephen Nagy of the International Christian University in Tokyo stated that economies are "selectively diversifying away from the Chinese market... because it's not in the interest of any countries within the region to decouple" while conscious of hedging against "having too many eggs in the China basket."
- David Talbot of the Milken Institute underlined how "through the U.S. lens, the goal is to try to find as many new sources" for strategic areas as possible among likeminded, an area of particular relevance to Canada and its critical mineral supply chain.
TOP STORY
In San Francisco, Trudeau Misses Facetime Amid Xi-Biden Meeting
As Indo-Pacific leaders assembled in San Francisco for their annual APEC summit last month, both President Joe Biden and China's Xi Jinping undertook a rare opportunity to hold expansive bilateral talks. As Xi met with a host of other APEC counterparts, Prime Minister Trudeau was not among those included.
Touting trade in Asia — Trudeau's delegation largely zeroed in on economic prosperity:
- Previewing his trip, the Prime Minister's Office underlined how Trudeau would focus on addressing "growth that works for the middle class," affordability, and climate change as "Canada’s prosperity is based on free and open trade and investment."
- Global Affairs Canada stated that International Trade Minister Mary Ng, joining the PM, addressed supply chains, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership "advancing World Trade Organization priorities, including WTO reform."
- Also in California, Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly met with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns where she stated they had discussed "global governance, and how Canada and the U.S. can collaborate on initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region."
- In a post-summit summary, the PMO stated that Trudeau raised Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war in his meetings with counterparts including Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia while also holding bilaterals with Australia, Japan, and Mexico.
- Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs shared that Fumio Kishida and Trudeau talked to "coordinate closely between Japan and Canada in their responses to issues related to China" and a "Japan-Canada Action Plan contributing to a free and open Indo-Pacific region'."
No tête-à-tête wtih Xi — While Biden and other APEC leaders had formal meetings with the Chinese President, Trudeau did not:
- Limited to the leaders' photo, Trudeau said he "talked about how we need to keep our officials and teams working together to try and create constructive dialogue... including with countries we disagree with" — remarks that Trudeau said that Xi merely "acknowledged."
- The PM also said that diplomats were still working towards conditions for a formal meeting while Canada's Indo-Pacific Special Envoy Ian McKay stated that a follow-up encounter "would be a good thing."
- McKay went on to say that the Xi-Biden meeting was "a good signal not just to those two countries, but the entire region... to engage in more consistent, more broader, more realistic levels. We're very happy and very supportive of that."
- Canada's Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman said Ottawa had not asked Biden to raise issues on Canada's behalf with Xi and that "it's important for countries to be talking to each other" and that Canada does "engage with the Chinese at senior officials levels."
- Senior Canadian officials disclosed that Ottawa had not been briefed about former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien's visit to Beijing this month where he had met with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, saying Trudeau had not been in contact with his predecessor.
'Try to make himself relevant' — With India's Narendra Modi skipping the summit, experts have asked whether Trudeau will walk away with results:
- Rob Huebert, Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, stated that the PM "just trying to tread water and show that he is, in fact, relevant to the region is going to be the major driving feature for what his is trying to achieve."
- Huebert added that "the fact that we have none of the major meetings with any of the important players" underscores the question of "what do we have to offer [the region]? Almost nothing, not even any tokenism."
- Jonathan Berkshire Miller, director of foreign affairs at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, argued that "things are looking really dark" for the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which he said had shrunk to a "North Pacific policy" with India and China out of the picture.
- Carlo Dade, Trade & Investment Director at the Canada West Foundation, suggested the U.S. will not help fast-track entry into its regional economic initiatives as "Canada does not help you make an impression in Asia. Canada does not bring anything of substance."
- Goldy Hyder, President of the Business Council of Canada, noted that Trudeau's values agenda at APEC ignores how "you need to read the room... we're going to be left at the table and we may even be left outside the room. This is not the time to go in and preach."
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING
The Indo-Pacific strategy had a clear message on China that has not changed. But our diplomacy — how we deal with China and others — now has to take into account the need for pragmatism... Australia has demonstrated how you can stabilise relations with China while not giving up on your principles and values.
— Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President, Research & Strategy, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
Canada’s difficult relationship with China will not be a problem solved overnight. All Western countries are grappling with China’s bellicose behaviour. However, Australia and others are making greater efforts to find common ground. As Ottawa’s relationship with Beijing continues on a downward spiral, the government needs to explain how it will walk that thin tightrope described in the Indo-Pacific strategy.
— Vincent Rigby, Former National Security & Intelligence Adviser
The Biden-Xi meeting has put the two countries on a less threatening trajectory in the short term. But one meeting alone cannot halt the long-term momentum in the direction of conflict. Influential citizens in both countries must mobilize to find ways beyond official engagement to promote the common good. Whatever new paradigm leaders in Beijing and Washington choose must do more than just avoid a new cold war; it must prevent a hot one, as well.
— Wang Jisi, Founding President, Institute of International & Strategic Studies, Peking University
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