CATEGORY 6 HURRICANE: IS IT TIME TO UPGRADE THE OLD SCALE TO ADJUST TO THE NEW CLIMATE NORMAL?

The mostly used #tropicalcyclone (#TC) storm scale is the #Saffir-SimpsonWindScale (#SSWS) developed in the early 1970s, which starts at Category 1 with sustained winds of 74-95 mph (119-153km/h) and keeps incrementing, mostly exponentially in terms of estimated destruction potential, up to Category 5 with continuous winds to any level greater than 157 mph (253 km/h), i.e. there is no upper limit, meaning everything above this level is "placed in the same basket". 

Each Category level uses a "word-based", somewhat subjective/relative, description of the extent of its damage (when comparing one category to the others), e.g. Cat 1 Hurricane warns: "Very dangerous winds will produce some damages. Damages to buildings are possible...Large branches of trees will snap...Loose outdoor items become projectiles. Extensive damage to power lines can cause outages for days, etc".

The relative base of the "word description" could be more creatively quantifiable if it would also include a percentage or degree of potential damage for an even more discernible measurement reference as words are too relative (a percentage or proportion transmits more mensurable information than a word, like saying more or less vs 50% or the calling "number 5 of 10") and it's relativity would also include the approximate location it is targeting to hit  (e.g. Florida different from Haiti). Though this is less important, see more details below. 

Anyway, no one in sane conscience would dispute the fact that the #climate in the early 1970s was much different from today's with superheated oceans, more energy and a higher level of molecular "movement/agitation" within the system, and more moisture saturation in the atmosphere, all of which are the main drivers for stronger TCs.

Also, the background and perception at that time were much less severe than nowadays with daily record-breaking in every single parameter of the #climate spectrum, and with scientists and experts alike even stepping up publicly with powerful words like "awe", "terrified", and indeed "surprised" (emotionalized words normally not used by scientists) with what is happening with the world's #weather.

Likely some 80-90%  of them did not predict what we have been witnessing in the past couple of years, i.e., they were caught by surprise (a rare event).

A scientific paper was published earlier this year in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences  (#PNAC) defending the case based on multiple pieces of evidence and simulations that although we did not have, yet, for sure a Category 6 Hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean, the current overall conditions are prone for it to happen. 

The authors exclaimed that now its likelihood "...is just a roll of the dice" as the "intensity of major storms has notably increased" compared to the 1970s 

There was only 1 potential Cat 6 Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere with estimated winds over the 309 km/h or 192 miles/h threshold. The North Atlantic region has less "fetch", or less stretch of open water compared to the Pacific making the latter more prone to experience a Cat 6

Another important consideration within the SSWS system is that it is quite limited and outdated because it is mainly focused on the wind intensity impact (as its name says) and is not very specific about other important, many times even more hazardous information like flooding rain, rain downpour, coastal storm surge, total damage, high winds, mudslides, economic impact, etc. 

According to the U.S. Government, the country's hurricane-related death tool (which could be extended to other countries as well) is approximately 50% for coastal storm surges, 30% for torrential rainfall floods, and only less than 10% for wind (the main focus of the SSWS)

With the purpose of covering a wider range of actual damage, a new scale was introduced in 2019 that includes those other factors PLUS

FINANCIAL DAMAGE and is called AccuWeather RealImpact Scale (search for AccuWeather RI website), which also has 5 categories plus a "less than 1 rating"

The developers of the new scale, after years of close analysis of all kinds of storms with much more advanced technologies and models (than in the early 1970s), claim that the #SSWS (also) leaves behind storms with less than 74 mph (119 km/h) which depending on the conditions can cause significant damage including loss of life and that is why they included this "less-than-1 level"

Even if the AccuWeather RI becomes more widely used because of being more realistic and comprehensive, it still leaves open the increasingly probable more energetically powerful winds under our New Climate Normal (#NCN) which consists of record-breaking warmer ocean surface, greater potential area extension, and higher atmospheric temperature coupled with higher air moisture over the seas (i.e., more energy) brewing into the system ready to be unleashed

For every 1 deg C (1.8 deg F) increase in temperature or that the ocean water evaporates to the air, the atmosphere holds 7% more water vapor according to the Laws of Thermodynamics potentially augmenting the intensity of storms fomenting more fuel for forming Hurricanes. And a warmer ocean also increases sea level, worsening the impact.

By the way, Hurricane, Typhoon and Cyclone are different names for the same thing in different areas and varied regions which have distinct scales as Australia, North India, Southwest India and Western North Pacific basins and every scale carries the same feature of an open-ended ratio and are also prone to be scaled up 1 level due to the same reasons (current #climatecrisis).

The problem we face is that currently, our original #climate patterns have switched up to a higher gear, a more energetic momentum state that reinforces itself, with more frequent, intense and widespread storms.

In this way, the linear multi-decade benchmark charts and models that have been used all along may no longer be accurately capturing this NCN for forecasting future #climatechange conditions because the original lower values (of charts and models) somewhat get neutralized (soften the curves) by the present set of parameters and the said greater energy built into the Earth's system. 

And this, even disregarding the past El Nino which by the experts was the supposed villain in 2023 and the beginning of 2024, however, the end of it did not improve our climate as we continue to be struck by constant and unstoppable records and damages

Add to these variabilities what normally is neglected by #climatexperts which are the increased #SolarIrradiation (#IR) as well as the weakening Earth's Electromagnetic Field (#EMF), especially in the area called South Atlantic Anomaly (as per European Space Agency #ESAE) which also increase the surplus energy in the global system.

Some respected scientists in the community, as Dr Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist at the Woods Hole/ Wodewell Research Center and Dr. Peter Carter, IPCC Reviewer and Director of Climate Emergency Institute admit that present models are underestimating the current reality (i.e. the lack of Cat 6)

Nowadays, the longer-term forecasts some time ago projected to happen in 2040-50 may have to be dragged back to 2030-2035, or sooner (some speak about 2100 which is counterproductive making decision-makers and individuals lazier)

In the backstage, there is an intermittent discussion of whether a Category 6  hurricane (with sustained winds over 192 mph or 309 km/h) should be enlisted or not with the pros and cons of both sides which I will not enter into now

For the moment, this issue is stalled and the NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami (#NHC)  says that Cat 6 hurricane designation will not happen because they contend that instituting a Cat 6 Hurricane will make people less "scared and prepared" while the "destruction would be equally impacting", which in fact could be the very opposite of it and can further endanger the extreme situation, i.e., fewer people evacuating if they are not significantly worried (see below) 

As these great scientists have been inside the NHC day in and day out for decades, they are so conditioned to the system that they have become too accustomed to it, resisting changing the status quo. Instead, they could further open their minds as per some reasons below. Even with their adamant opinion, their current system is still prone to cause significant inaccuracy. 

As some scientists argue about the ambiguity of super storms Categories: "one can't definitively say that one Category is more deadly or damaging than another as Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a 2013 Category 1 storm, led to heavy rainfall and flooding through Queensland and New South Wales in Australia, while the 1992 Category 5 Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic wind damage, but little rain or storm surge damage when it hit Florida"

The main reason for NHC not to be prone to up-scale to include a Category 6 Hurricane is that Cat 5 already carries the supposed maximum warning and damaging level, i.e., "Catastrophic damage will occur" (Equally labeled for Cat 4 and 5) followed by the description of the damage, again that is somewhat relative because this same maximum actual level would have different effects when hitting Florida compared to if it befalls into Haiti, even though they mention the level of infrastructure damage

For experts at the NHC, a Cat 6 will not increase the warning or hazard level, so it is not necessary...but there are additional beneficial points in contrast to this narrow view (below)

In any event, this inflexible perception might be a disservice for various reasons, especially because the tropical storms scale is not only to warn people in advance to the degree of preparation but it serves as historical, comparative and statistical elements to improve this science

Here are some more detailed reasons in favor of including a Category 6 Hurricane:

1) Warning the population: adding a higher Hurricane level Category (i.e., 6, if not up to 7!) sends the message to people that the #climatecrisis is becoming significantly more serious and that they have to prepare even more, not less (the opposite of what the NHC contends). 

Also, learning of a major Hurricane damage upgrade (which will be all over the News Media), helped by a promoting campaign (which under current circumstances should be the role of all climate/weather-related institutions) alerts individuals with a signal that they must help and do their part with their daily choices and behaviors to avoid us worsening the #climatecrisis. 

Additionally, it induces them to mobilize themselves to pressure policy and lawmakers to act rapidly and boldly against a #climatehell. So it is not just a number that disappears after the storm is gone but it induces individual movements, having a more lasting and powerful effect. So the NHC becomes more engaged in what is beneficial, i.e., they will go beyond being a plain government institution issuing warnings; after all, it is not a matter of surviving one Hurricane but the survival of human civilization under the worsening #climatecrises.

2) It is a powerful political and financial message: With this significative upgrade we would be directly telling the decision, policy and law-makers that we are really leading our civilization down the drain and will help push them to establish the urgent measures to fight #climatechange

3) Infrastructure: adding another degree to the hurricane damage level, which will be certain with exponentially stronger winds and storm surges that further alert that construction rules will need to be implemented (like in Florida but it reach out to other countries). And it will create another scope or proportion of measurement/ analysis

4) Comparatively: having a higher number, i.e. Cat 6 with its further increased damage level (the damage increases exponentially from one degree to another) serves for future comparison between the various Hurricanes over the years. 

Number (level) to number can be easily statistically compared and tracked, which in the current case is handicapped because the current top hurricane category leaves significantly stronger hurricanes open-ended, which is "scientifically and statistically unreasonably" as it includes in this category anything above 157 mph (253 km/h), as Cat 5 carries already the supposed maximum damaging ratio.

Even if the basic description of the damage is quite similar (as it is already between Cat 4 and 5, or it may need a recalibration of the damage description).

A Cat 6 wit consistent winds over 192 mph or 309 km/h is one more piece of data to enrich the science of Tropical Storms which is certainly becoming more necessary. There is nothing to lose with it. Even if Cat 6 is open-ended, this leaves much more room to classify super powerful hurricanes (some experts are even calling to include Cat 6 and 7)

The arguments for having an upgraded Cat 6 hurricane are a significantly growing inadequacy, which is already supported by the US Dept of Energy (#DoE), US National Institutes of Health (#NIH), The World Economic Forum (#WEF) and discussed by the  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the US (PNAS), The Weather Channel, and several articles

One of the "fixable" problems claimed by some experts with this Cat 5 Hurricane "imprisonment" is that for Cat 4 and 5 the SSWS system calls both as "catastrophic" so the Cat 6 could also be catastrophic level 2 or 3 or another nomenclature. 

The bottom line is that with today's insane and worsening climate the SSWS system ought to be adjusted not only by adding a Category 6 Hurricane but also by "borrowing" some fundamental information (to which the SSWS is limited) from the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale which is more realistic and therefore life-saving comprehensive

With respect to the Western Pacific Ocean which has a greater fetch (surface area) of warmer waters favoring stronger Hurricanes (which are born and maintained over the seawater, not the land), the potential for generating Category 6 Hurricane/ typhoon is even greater. 

In that region, there were about 5 storms in the past decade that could have been classified with a #6 seal (measurements there on wind speed are not so precise as with the NHC) especially the devastating Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013 at an estimated 200 miles/h or 322 km/h (which killed 6.500 people/ displaced 4 million/ 5 meter-16ft storm surge)

Details a part, on a relative comparative number-level basis for future studies, especially under the continuously up-trending, momentum-gaining #climatecrisis, with all types of frequent records being broken, a Cat 6 type shall happen sooner or later so its scale upgrade will be useful at the minimum as a statistical comparison level.

As the scientist said above, the time for an equivalent Hurricane/Typhoon Cat 6 "is just a roll of the dice" 

#globalwarming #climateovershoot #climatehell #climateemergency #climateaction #climatecrises