The analysis presented here provides insights into the performance of Max Verstappen after the regulation changes following the Spanish GP. We used the CausalImpact package to assess whether these changes had a significant impact on Max's performance. Let's walk through the results, starting with the three key graphs and concluding with the numerical findings from the posterior inference.
- Original (Top Panel): The black line represents Max Verstappen's actual points over time, while the blue-shaded region shows the expected points without the regulatory changes. The dashed line indicates the prediction based on historical data prior to the Spanish GP. In the latter part of the graph, after the vertical dashed line (indicating the regulatory change), we see a visible divergence between the actual and predicted points. This suggests that Max's actual performance deviated from what we would have expected if the regulatory environment had remained unchanged.
- Pointwise (Middle Panel): This graph shows the pointwise impact, which represents the difference between the actual points scored by Verstappen and the expected points for each race after the regulation change. The blue-shaded area reflects the uncertainty around the predictions, and the black line demonstrates the estimated effect at each data point. We see clear dips below the zero line, indicating that Max consistently underperformed compared to the predicted points in many races, suggesting a performance decline that aligns with the regulatory adjustments.
- Cumulative (Bottom Panel): This panel visualizes the cumulative impact of the regulation changes over time. The blue-shaded area again represents uncertainty, while the dashed line shows the cumulative effect. The cumulative graph highlights a significant negative trend, meaning that the total effect of the regulatory changes compounded over time, resulting in a substantial performance decline relative to expectations.
The summary table provides detailed insights into the causal effect of the regulatory changes:
- Actual Points: Max scored an average of 22 points per race post-regulation, with a total of 635 points.
- Predicted Points: The model predicted an average of 24 points per race, leading to a total of 699 points had the regulatory changes not occurred.
- Absolute Effect: Max's points dropped by an average of -2.2 points per race, with a cumulative drop of -63.8 points. This effect is statistically significant, as the 95% confidence interval does not include zero.
- Relative Effect: The performance decline was -9%, indicating that Max's performance was about 9% lower than expected over the period.
- Posterior Probability: The analysis shows a 98.68% probability that this performance decline is causally related to the regulatory changes. This is a highly significant finding, with a very low p-value (0.01313), confirming that the observed decline is unlikely to be due to random chance.
The results of this causal analysis provide strong evidence that the changes in regulations following the Spanish GP negatively affected Max Verstappen's performance. The decline in points—averaging -2.2 points per race—is statistically significant, with a 98.68% probability that this effect is causal.
While Verstappen remains an elite driver, these findings suggest that the regulatory adjustments may have disrupted his dominance on the track. As fans and analysts alike continue to watch his career, this analysis underscores the complex interplay between talent, technology, and regulations in modern F1 racing.
