China Choke Taiwan...?

S. Vincent Shin

Analytic--Investor--Student

Published May 30, 2024

China is choking Taiwan... Really, China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price… See the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has decimated the Russian military, economy, and international blockade deeper into generational ruin. There is no win for Russia or for Ukraine. Two are irreparably damaged for decades to come. Well, Xi Jinping’s desperate struggle to survive its own military purge, ruinous economy, demographic crises, and CCP disintegration may be using the Taiwan war as a diversion and attempting to unify the Chinese. The aftereffects of the China-Taiwan war may be the bloodiest as the largest and strongest forces such as the USA, Japan, Philippines, Australia, and many more European and Asian countries are ready to defend the sovereignty of Taiwan. The massive Chinese military (air and sea) blockade exercise clearly threatened Taiwan and the pro Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (January 13, 2024) took office. President William Lai Ching-te vowed support for the island nation against increasing tension with China.

So, what’s really behind Xi’s motivation for invading Taiwan now? Really, the images of Chinese warships and warplanes seen off the coast of Taiwan served as a dire warning of a potential invasion that could disrupt the technology supply chain, plunge the world into an economic catastrophe, and start a hot war between the U.S. and China, and other pro-Taiwan coalitions. But 52 geo-political experts say China doesn't have the military power to successfully invade Taiwan. Well, regardless, perhaps like Putin, Xi is desperately attempting to divert his eminent demise by war. See, history is full of failing leaders who have attempted to divert attention from people’s anger and hate. Nearly all failed.

War has historically been used by corrupt or failing leaders as a diversionary tactic to consolidate power, distract the populace from internal problems, and unify the nation against a common enemy. This strategy can be understood through several key reasons and historical examples:

I. Reasons for Using War as a Diversion.

Unifying the Population: Leaders may initiate conflict to create a sense of national unity and purpose. When the public is focused on an external enemy, internal divisions and dissent can be mitigated.

Distracting from Domestic Issues: Economic crises, political scandals, or social unrest can be overshadowed by the urgency and drama of war. This can help leaders avoid accountability and criticism.

Consolidating Power: War often grants leaders greater control over the state apparatus. Emergency powers, censorship, and suspension of normal political processes can be justified in the name of national security.

Economic Benefits: In some cases, war can stimulate certain sectors of the economy, particularly industries related to defense and infrastructure. This can be a way to boost economic activity and divert attention from economic mismanagement.

Patriotism and Legitimacy: Victories in war can bolster a leader's popularity and legitimacy. A successful military campaign can transform a struggling leader into a national hero.

II. Historical Examples.

1. Falklands War (1982) Leaders: Argentine military junta led by General Leopoldo Galtieri. Context: Facing severe economic problems and declining popularity, the Argentine junta invaded the Falkland Islands, a British territory. Outcome: Initially rallied nationalistic fervor in Argentina but ultimately led to a humiliating defeat. The loss accelerated the fall of the military junta.

2. Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905). Leader: Tsar Nicholas II of Russia. Context: Russia was experiencing internal unrest and demands for political reform. The government saw war with Japan as a way to unify the country and distract from domestic issues. Outcome: The unexpected defeat by Japan exacerbated domestic discontent, leading to the 1905 Russian Revolution and eventually contributing to the downfall of the Tsarist regime.

3. Second Chechen War (1999). Leader: Vladimir Putin. Context: Russia was dealing with the aftermath of the First Chechen War, economic instability, and the perception of weak leadership under Boris Yeltsin. Putin, then Prime Minister, launched a second war in Chechnya. Outcome: The war significantly boosted Putin’s popularity, paving the way for his presidency. The conflict allowed him to project an image of strength and decisiveness.

4. Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). Leader: Saddam Hussein of Iraq. Context: Saddam faced internal opposition and economic challenges. The revolution in Iran and its new leadership posed both a threat and an opportunity to divert attention from internal issues. Outcome: The prolonged war led to significant loss of life and economic hardship for both countries. While initially, it served to consolidate Saddam’s power, the long-term consequences were destabilizing.

5. The Spanish-American War (1898). Leader: President William McKinley (U.S.) Context: There was growing domestic pressure to address economic issues following the Panic of 1893. The war was partly fueled by sensationalist journalism (yellow journalism) and the desire to expand American influence. Outcome: The war resulted in a swift victory for the United States and territorial gains (Philippines, Guam, Puerto Rico), temporarily boosting national pride and distracting from domestic issues.

These examples illustrate how leaders have historically used war to address or divert attention from domestic challenges. While sometimes temporarily successful in achieving their aims, the long-term consequences often include exacerbated domestic problems and international instability.

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~S. Vincent Shin, www.linkedin.com/in/vshin

Be Vigilant. Be Safe.

“Stay Curious” and “Think for Yourself.” Always decide on your terms. This is my research and analysis. Perhaps you should take a closer look at them and do additional investigation and scrutiny if they interest you. (SVS)