China's new energy vehicles are mainly exported to...

Since 2021, with the outbreak of the world's new crown epidemic, China's auto industry chain's advantage of greater resilience has been fully reflected, and China's auto export market has shown superb growth in the past two years. 2.138 million units were sold in the export market in 2021, up 102% year-on-year. 1.33 million units were sold in the export market from January to June 2022, up 40% year-on-year. the average price of auto exports from January to June USD 15,500,000, compared to USD 15,300,000 last year, with a slight increase in the average price. 249,000 units of Chinese auto exports in June, up 31% year-on-year, a stronger performance, compared to the domestic auto sales rebound in June, the performance of the export market is still stronger. As exports from local enterprises in Shanghai accounted for 20% of the national exports, the national export situation improved significantly as Shanghai improved better after the epidemic.

Especially with the export of wholly-owned auto enterprises, Chinese auto exports to developed European markets made a huge breakthrough. New energy vehicles are the core growth point of China's auto exports, changing the passive situation of auto exports that rely on some poor and non-regulated countries such as Asia and Africa. 223,000 new energy vehicles exported in 2020, good performance; 588,000 new energy vehicles exported in 2021, continue to continue to be strong. 370,000 new energy vehicles exported from January to June 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of 113%, of which new energy vehicles Exports continue to maintain a good situation of strong growth.

China's new energy vehicles are mainly exported to Western Europe and Southeast Asia market, this year, Belgium, Slovenia and and the United Kingdom and other export highlights, and to Thailand, the Philippines and other countries in Southeast Asia export recovery is very good. Overseas, although still restricted by the epidemic, but the economic reboot continues, related manufacturing demand began to recover steadily, the high price of mineral resources back down, so China's exports to South America, such as Chile performance is stronger. The number of China's auto exports to Russia has recently declined, but the export performance of heavy trucks has improved.

The core driver of China's auto export market growth is still the growth space for passenger cars, especially in countries such as the Middle East and Africa, where export performance is relatively strong, while markets such as Europe and Mexico are stronger recently.

First, the overall trend of China's auto exports

1、Auto export growth rate characteristics

After the drastic decline in the world economic downturn in 2013-2015, the export growth rate gradually stabilized and improved in 2016-2020, and the current monthly export volume maintained at a monthly average level of about 100-15 million units. 2020 exports reached 1.06 million units, down 13% year-on-year; exports also reached 2.13 million units in January-December 2021, which was also hit by the epidemic, and the future There is still huge space for the development of auto exports.

China's auto export performance in 2022 is strong, achieving exports of 1.33 million units from January to June, a good growth rate of 40% year-on-year is very good.

Annual sales in 2020 reached 1.059 million units, up -13.1% YoY. 2021 export market sales of 2.138 million units, up 102% YoY.

Export market sales of 1.33 million units in January-June 2022, up 40% year-on-year, mainly due to the significant increase in export competitiveness. The last two years of the international epidemic in China's exports grew more.

June China's auto exports 249,000 units, up 31% year-on-year, a stronger performance, relative to domestic auto sales rebounded in June, the export market performance is still stronger.

2、Monthly trend of vehicle exports

From the monthly trend, the export in recent years still shows seasonal characteristics, showing a summer high roller coaster topping back down trend characteristics, but 2021 changed to a sustained upward trend. 2020 early exports at the low level of the calendar year, 2021 burst growth, 2022 car market exports started strong, but the impact of the epidemic in January-April, showing a month-on-month decline in export volume all the way downward trend, with a reversal of the trend in May-June.

Under the epidemic, China's auto exports rose strongly due to overseas supply chain problems, and exports continued to remain strong in 2022, reflecting a significant increase in the world competitiveness of China's auto industry. At present, due to the pressure of domestic epidemic prevention and control, bringing the problem of insufficient supply of exports.

3 、Structural characteristics of auto vehicle exports

2017-2019 export car market are relative to the same period of growth. 2021 complete vehicle exports (including chassis) exports 2.13 million units, a growth rate of 102% of performance is considered very good. 2021 export performance is better 4WD SUV and other passenger cars.

In June 2022, passenger car exports are seriously divided, 4WD SUV and unlisted passenger car exports are better, but bus and special vehicle exports are weak. June traditional light bus exports are better, but large bus exports negative growth, which also shows that our exports are still experiencing bottlenecks.

June 2022 customs truck exports 43,000 units, up 28% year-on-year, compared to the domestic truck plunge, the recent performance of all types of truck exports have rebounded.

From a structural point of view, the performance of passenger car exports rose is two-wheel drive SUVs, electric vehicles and other unlisted minibuses exports reached 22% of the car in June this year.

Trucks in the light truck performance is better, medium and heavy truck export performance is stronger. Passenger cars of medium and large buses are worse.

4, new energy vehicles export structure characteristics of the whole vehicle

The number of new energy vehicles exported in 2017-2019 is large, but the passenger cars are basically micro low-speed electric vehicles mainly, and the actual number is not large.

New energy passenger car export structure and quantity performance has improved. 2020-2022 new energy export performance is good, and which plug-in hybrid models are mainly the return sales of some car companies.

2022 January-June new energy vehicle exports accounted for 26.4%, slightly higher than the domestic level, showing a trend of strong export growth. June's pure electric passenger car exports were stable, trucks and buses exported less new energy.

Second, the pattern of overseas markets for cars

1, export manufacturers characteristics

The importance of Shanghai to China's exports is extremely obvious, with Shanghai accounting for 27% of China's exports in 2021 and 22% of China's exports in 2022. The main reason here is that Shanghai's local enterprises are relatively good, especially SAIC Passenger Cars and Tesla, both of which have relatively strong export volumes, so they form a larger growth performance. At the same time, SAIC-GM export performance is also stronger, so a significant increase in May, June to continue the trend.

Anhui's export performance is relatively strong, mainly also Chery's export performance is relatively more satisfactory, while Chongqing's Changan export performance is relatively strong, Zhejiang Geely Automobile and other export performance contribution is relatively large, the other Shandong, Hebei performance is also relatively strong characteristics.

In June, Tianjin's export performance is stronger, mainly because the export performance of new energy vehicles is relatively strong, the local low-speed vehicle enterprises are relatively good performance.

2, sub-regional trend analysis

In terms of sales volume, exports from 2017-2021 are gradually picking up, mainly due to the contribution of Africa and Europe. The recent market share growth in developed markets in Europe and North America is outstanding, while the performance of Africa and South America has fallen back relatively.

The main region of auto exports is the European region, incremental in economically developed regions, which are currently going super strong. Weak exports from Asia in poor regions and average performance in Africa.

This year's exports are more export cars to Belgium and more exports from Russia, and the markets in Germany and the United Kingdom declined. Chilean car market is stronger in recent years. Asia is still the Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh markets. The recent Mexican market performance is stronger. January to June the average price of car exports 15,000 U.S. dollars, compared to last year's average price is basically stable.

3 、Monthly trend of whole vehicle exports

The main vehicle exports in 2022 are mainly Chile and Saudi Arabia, Mexico, the Philippines and other markets. the Russian market declined significantly in June. Mexico and the Philippines market are relatively strong performance, and even the Belgian market has become the core market for incremental growth.

And 2022 January-June increment relatively more is Europe and North America, Asia's market, Mexico, Thailand, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Mexico, etc. are very strong.

Overall, the epidemic brought a certain boost to China's auto market exports, due to overseas production stoppages led to China's exports to developed countries also have a certain increment.

4. Analysis of changes in export countries

The effect of overseas bases of automobile exports in the previous period is not ideal, and the realization of automobile exports in 2020 is mainly in Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile and other countries with sharp fluctuations.

The previous period is the promotion of exports from countries such as Iran, Mexico and Bangladesh, these countries have suffered greater losses under the epidemic. Recent export losses are also Algeria, North Korea and other countries.

In 2021, the structure of automotive exports improved and realized mainly in Belgium, Chile, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Bangladesh, Egypt and other countries.

2022 car exports of the main market from Chile, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other underdeveloped countries more. Recent performance improvement in Belgium, the United Kingdom, Australia and other relatively developed countries.

5, new energy passenger car export structure characteristics

New energy vehicle exports are mainly in the two major markets of Asia and Europe, with the recent strong performance of the Western European market and continued high sales in Southeast Asia and other markets.

China's new energy vehicle exports maintain strong growth, January-June new energy vehicle export performance to European countries is very strong, although slightly lower in April, but in June to recover some. Exports to India, Bangladesh and the Philippines diverged, but the average price was very low.

New energy vehicle exports to Slovenia and Belgium were stronger in June, and the average price reached a higher level of $20,000.

6, new energy passenger car export country characteristics

At present, exports to Belgium, Slovenia and Southeast Asia are the two main directions. The main domestic enterprises with strong export performance are SAIC Passenger Cars and Geely Automobile, JAC Motor, FAW Hongqi, SAIC Datsun and other enterprises. SAIC passenger cars in the United Kingdom, France and Germany are new energy vehicles monthly sales of more than a thousand units. OEMs such as Dongfeng EJET are also doing well with their overseas sales brands.

The export performance of the new energy vehicle market is also good, all reaching the level of about one hundred units. The main market is Norway and other countries.

7, China's exports to Russia analysis

China's auto exports to Russia have experienced complex fluctuations. In the first few years, China's auto exports to Russia performed strongly, and then Russia's policy strongly cracked down on Chinese car exports, leading to a period of relatively poor Chinese car exports.

Government Decree No. 745, signed by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in 2008, stipulates that from November 10, Russia will impose new tariffs on imported KD car parts, of which the tariff on body parts is 15%, but the minimum tax on body parts is not less than 5,000 euros, and the implementation period is tentatively set at 9 months. Chinese car companies mostly export to Russia in the form of assembled parts, so the Russian media generally believes that this new tariff policy is intended to crack down on Chinese car companies exporting to Russia. In July 2008, the Russian government also increased the number of tests for Chinese cars exported to Russia from 11 to 55, and the validity of the certificate was changed from one year to six months, which greatly increased the difficulty of exporting Chinese cars to Russia.

But with our efforts to improve relations, Chinese exports to Russia have gradually grown since 2019 and 2020, with Chinese exports of cars to Russia rising to a higher level of 120,000 units in 2021.

Chinese auto exports to Russia reached another 58,000 units in January-June 2022, with growth reaching 11%, with a divergent performance. This year's exports to Russia are mainly strong growth in exports of heavy trucks, with truck exports up 201% year-on-year.

June's Chinese auto exports to Russia 4,499 units, down 53%, of which exports of heavy trucks grew 201%, a very strong performance.

China's exports to Russia are relatively large differences in the main enterprises. The export of passenger cars is relatively strong in Zhejiang, and this year's growth rate is extremely obvious. June, Zhejiang passenger car enterprises exported to Russia growth rate is extremely amazing, but Hebei enterprises and Sichuan enterprises are relatively cautious performance.

From the point of view of truck exports, Shaanxi heavy truck enterprises are relatively strong performance, Xinjiang, Jilin enterprises are relatively cautious, truck exports or Shaanxi enterprises are relatively strong performance.

Passenger car exports to Russia, Henan's exports are relatively more enterprises. At present, the bus exports to Russia relatively strong performance, Henan bus performance is excellent.

8, China's exports to Ukraine analysis

China's auto exports to Ukraine are relatively small, in 2018-2020 at an average annual level of less than 4,000 units, which are mainly passenger cars and heavy trucks. 2021 China's auto exports to Ukraine achieved high growth, reaching 9,929 units, which is a good performance.

This year, China's exports to Ukraine performed well in January, relatively low in February- June and shrank dramatically to 159 passenger cars in June.

C. Export trend of passenger cars by category

1、Export of passenger cars by displacement

The displacement of passenger car exports is mainly in the 1 liter-1.5 liter range, which is also the comprehensive advantage of China's independent passenger car products.

The export demand for EV models is unstable, and the proportion of passenger cars will reach 16% in 2018, 26% in 2019, 25% in 2020, 30% in 2021, and 32% in 2022. The export of low-cost micro EVs is super strong in the first period, and the export of high-end EVs will improve more in 2021.

China's passenger car exports will remain strong in 2022, with gasoline exports declining from January to April and improving from May to June, and pure electric exports increasing 170% in June.

2, passenger car export structure characteristics

The main declining markets for China's passenger car exports during the January-June 2022 epidemic were Russia, Brazil and other countries. 2022 passenger car exports to developed countries performed stronger. Belgium and Slovenia markets are stronger. The Mexican market in North America continues to strengthen, and exports from countries such as the Philippines and Thailand have recovered significantly.

The main market for new energy passenger car exports is still Slovenia and Belgium, two European countries, as well as the United Kingdom and France, Germany and other export performance are relatively strong. Asia's Thailand and other economic electric vehicles are better.

The other is the new energy passenger car exports to Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Thailand, the Philippines and India and other markets are relatively strong performance, which is the formation of Asia, Europe, the two major markets for new energy vehicle exports. At present, the increase is relatively large or the European market, the performance is relatively strong. The decline is relatively large, it should be said that the Southeast Asian market has not yet effectively recovered.

Fourth, truck export trends by category

1, truck exports

The growth rate of truck market exports in recent years is low, and the performance of the export market share of vehicles is in a state of continuous shrinkage. Gasoline and diesel truck performance is very strong, gasoline vehicles show continued high growth.

The main force of the truck market is the stronger gasoline trucks below 5 tons, more than 20 tons of diesel heavy trucks in general, there is also a strong demand.

With the gradual easing of the overseas epidemic, coupled with rising mineral prices, to promote the export of Chinese trucks, effectively offset the downward pressure on the domestic.

2, truck export market change characteristics

Truck export market top overall performance is stable. 2021 truck exports strong high growth, 2022 main export performance is better.

Mexico, Vietnam, Chile, and Russia's truck exports in June are stronger. Australia's truck exports declined.

Declining in 2022 are markets such as Myanmar, South Africa, Ghana, and Iraq. South American market is relatively good, including Chile, Ecuador, Mexico market is the core main market of Chinese truck exports.

Algeria market 2021 rapid shrinkage, South Africa market 2021 stronger, South Africa market is worse this year, reflecting the truck exports overseas market is still not stable enough.

Five, bus export trends by category

1, bus export performance

The overall growth rate of China's bus export market in recent years is very poor, which is also the impact of the epidemic and new energy downturn. Bus exports relative to the overall in the car in a sustained state of contraction.

The bus market exports are mainly light passenger, the recent performance of gasoline light passenger is stronger. 2021 large passenger market is relatively shrinking, diesel large passenger market gradually stronger.

The export of pure electric is not much demand. The export of pure electric buses accounted for a low proportion of the domestic market.

2, bus export country performance

The main markets for bus exports are Egypt, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, South Africa, Vietnam, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and other markets, the capacity of such markets is small and volatile. Bus exports to developed countries less exports, does not reflect the real advantages of the bus.

Vietnam demand shrank sharply in previous years, and has recovered slightly recently. China's export performance to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries is also fluctuating strong, after the epidemic era of bus exports should have a significant recovery.