Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Iran’s Forests, Rangelands and Deserts

The effects of climate change are not negligible. The change had shrunk the glaciers, breaking up the rivers, changing the biodiversity and causing an early flowering of trees. The predicted effect in the previous researcher's results is today’s climate change. These are reducing sea ice, faster sea level rise and extreme heat waves. 

But what is the definition of climate change? Climate change is the long-term change in average weather patterns. This phenomenon can occur globally or locally. This change has happened before for many reasons. Human activity causes a change in global temperature and weather patterns. This change is getting faster and faster than the previous normal climate variations.

Many researchers have tried to track climate change. Recent studies prove that the current climate change is connected to greenhouse gases (GHGs), in particular, carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The gases let the sun’s light shine on Earth's surface. They are effective to trap heat from the sun’s ray that reflects back from the surface of Earth’s atmosphere. The GHGs act like a glass wall that keeps heat inside. Even small quantities of GHGs in the air can make a major change on a global scale. 

One of the most important effects of GHGs is that they increase the global temperature. That is why sometimes, climate change is referred to as global warming. As an example, the increasing global temperature can change the jet flow stream. This change can affect North American weather which can lead to more persistent weather extremes, including heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and flooding in many areas.

The temperature is different from location to location. When we talk about climate change we mean the changes in temperature over large areas.

Is climate change real?

Climate have footprint on ices, coral reefs, sediments and tree rings. The historical atmospheric conditions can be found via chemical indicators. For example trapped CO2 in bubbles of an ice. Or the tree rings that can indicate the seasonal temperature and moisture of the area. 

Each natural records show different weather pattern. Ocean sediments, for example, provide a general picture back millions of years, showing large patterns of climate change.

Lots of things can be understood from tree rings. Ice, even can indicate full of information. For example, glaciers capture atmospheric gases in the form of air bubbles. Dust and some other sediments can be trapped in them. The older the ice gets, the fuzzier the captured record will be. But they provide valuable information about the yearly climate.

The progress

All these records have shown that the current patterns of weather has changed from the past. For example, prior to the Industrial Revolution the global average level of CO2 was 280 ppm. The rate increased to a new high record of 409.8 ppm by 2019. This rate is 100 ppm higher than the past 800,000 years according to NOAA.

Researchers are sure that the rate of rising global temperatures will continue to increase for the upcoming decade. The main reason for this the result from greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The extra carbon has the ability to capture heat as mentioned earlier. This ability lead to an increase in global temperature. Since 1880, the earth’s average temperature has increased more than 1 degree Celsius. Due to the rise in carbon concentration in the atmosphere, the rate of global temperature has reached to more than 60% of the warming since 1975.

Effects of Climate Change

Climate change can affect long-term trends in exposure, increasing the frequency of extreme events and reducing the reliability of water supply systems, which are critical for agricultural production, ecological integrity, changing the vegetation coverage such as forests, rangelands and deserts) economic development, and public health. Based on the IPCC projections, Iran’s average temperature is expected to increase between 5 °C and 7 °C while its average precipitation is projected to decrease by the maximum 20% until the year 2100 (IPCC, 2014), raising biophysical and socioeconomic vulnerability to climate change.

Future climate scenarios for the period of 2015-2030 were generated from General Circulation Model (GCM) for scenario A2 that were downscaled for Iran. While all the provinces are expected to have higher temperatures and lower precipitation in the future, the largest reduction in runoff is projected for the southern parts of the country, which will likely receive less precipitation.

Forests, Rangelands and Deserts

Iran’s forests and rangelands, which, respectively, comprise 9% and 53% of the country’s land use/cover, were severely degraded during the last a few decades. In the north, Hyrcanian or Caspian forests are threatened by land cover conversion and extensive development coupled with poor natural resource management.

The Arasbaran and Zagros forests, which are home to diverse floral and faunal species in the northwest and west, have been thinning due to such stressors as farming, firewood collection, grazing, and hunting. Similarly, the already sparse vegetation cover of the central Iranian plateau, which is vital for water and soil maintenance, has been deteriorating.

The country’s rangelands have had a similar deteriorating trend. Overgrazing exceeds the carrying capacity resulting in the loss of high and medium-quality rangelands (Table 1). On the other hand, desertification is increasing because of agricultural expansion to supply food for the growing population, cutting trees and bushes from rangeland and forests to develop the road and transportation infrastructure, wind erosion of barren soil, and declining groundwater tables due to overdraft. Climate change is expected to aggravate the situation, causing a loss of forest connectivity.

The national extent of major rangeland cover types between the years 2001-2011 has changed as follows:

High-quality rangeland type decreased by 2% from 2001- 2011. The medium-quality rangeland type decreased from 41% to 25% in the same period and the poor-quality rangeland type increased from 48% to 66% between 2001 and 2011 (Data source: Statistical Center of Iran).

Proposed Adaptation Strategies

Land mismanagement and deforestation can cause an increase in the occurrence and intensity of floods. The conservation-oriented forest policy should be implemented more vigorously in the face of extensive road development and harvesting of forest products. Greater emphasis should be placed on forest protection using such strategies as grazing planning, rangeland restoration, reforestation, and dune stabilization, taking into account the resource and economic needs of the surrounding communities.