Climate Courage Over Climate Hope. Psychopathic Dynasties. Why a Big Signature is a Red Light for Universities. Plus more! #184

Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck – welcome!

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1️⃣ Courage Over Hope

How scientists make sense of the climate crisis.

Kaitlin Naughten spends a lot of time looking at ice. She recently co-authored a study predicting the collapse of a major chunk of Antarctic glacier that will push sea levels unavoidably upward:

The opportunity to preserve the [West Antarctic Ice Sheet] in its present-day state has probably passed, and policymakers should be prepared for several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries.

Naughten isn’t the kind of scientist to breezily throw this out there, and say ‘over to you.’ Here’s a reflection she wrote on what this – frankly – terrible news means:

• “When it comes to climate change, “we need courage, not hope … Courage is the resolve to do well without the assurance of a happy ending”...
• “Courage means shifting our attention to the longer term.
• “The future will not end in 2100, even if most people reading this will no longer be around...
• “Reducing sea-level rise after 2100, or even slowing it down, could save many coastal cities.
• “Courage means accepting the need to adapt, protecting coastal communities where it’s possible to do so, and rebuilding or abandoning them where it’s not.”

⏭ Another extraordinary appeal from climate scientists.

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2️⃣ Violent Crime Runs in Families

‘The Godfather’ got it right – don’t marry into the Mob.

People in Scandinavia are among the best recorded in the world. This makes them catnip for social scientists.

Researchers studied 12.5 million Swedes to see if violence runs in families.

TL;DR? Don’t marry into the mob.

People who have family members who’ve been convicted of violent crimes are also much more likely to be involved in violence too.

This pattern was stronger among women, people from higher social classes, and those who started being violent at a young age.

So if a wealthy contessa confesses to kicking kittens as a kid...

⏭ What makes life meaningful? Family.

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3️⃣ The Only War Russia’s Winning?

“Russian actors” are undermining faith in democracy.

From the Washington Post:

• Russian actors “made a concerted effort to undermine faith in the voting process in at least 9 countries, including the United States, between 2020 and 2022.

“Russia is focused on carrying out operations to break public confidence in election integrity, and that they are doing this on a global scale,” a senior U.S. intelligence official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

• U.S. intelligence community has routinely highlighted what it portrays as Moscow’s ongoing scheme to subvert elections and destabilize democratic countries, but the State Department cable said that such tactics appear to be evolving with a specific goal of eroding trust in the basic administration of elections.
• Notably, the document says there is little evidence that the Chinese government is similarly focused.

⏭ How Russian disinformation is reshaping West Africa.

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4️⃣ China’s Quest to Beat its Housing Bust

Can electric cars make up for empty buildings?

Evan Osnos, a smart China observer for the New Yorker, has a long essay out: ‘China’s Age of Malaise’.

TL;DR? Lots of anecdotes. Mainly about very rich people leaving the country. But whether you buy the gloomy analysis, one of the things that is definitely depressing is China’s faltering property sector. As Osnos notes:

China has all the airports—and railways and factories and skyscrapers—that it can justify.

Now developers and local governments are left with the prospect of paying for what they built, taking about 0.5% off China’s GDP growth till 2027.

How to bridge the gap?

China’s leadership has been advocating “high quality growth” – higher tech, higher wage industries. Like making electric vehicles (EVs).

Chinese EV companies – BYD is just one example – are growing at home and increasing exports. By 2027, EVs will be about 60% of China’s car production – 18 million units.

Can they provide the jobs and economic growth generated by the once mighty construction sector, which was 30% of China’s economy at its peak?

That’s the big question.

⏭ Does politics pose the biggest threat to economic growth in China?

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5️⃣ Caribbean Islands are Biodiversity

0.16% of the Earth’s land, but top 3 in the world for biodiversity.

⏭ Find out more about the story here.

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6️⃣ Tech Doom and Gloom

And how to avoid it.

⏭ You don’t have to go the full Andreessen.

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7️⃣ Best Academic Study of the Week?

Beware University Presidents with big signatures!

Researchers looked at University Presidents (Vice-Chancellors or VCs in UK parlance) and tested the size of their signatures against their institution’s academic rankings.

• “We examine the effects of VC narcissism on university performance.
• “We measure VC narcissism based on the size of the signature, in line with a methodological approach which has been widely used in the recent literature and repeatedly validated in laboratory experiments.
• “The appointment of a highly narcissistic VC leads to an overall deterioration in research and teaching performance and concomitantly league table performance.”

There you have it. Big signature in the University brochure, bad sign for the value of your degree.

⏭  More intellectual fare on Bea’s book club podcast.

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Best,

Adrian