Colombians on the move

I want these opening paragraphs to be the first you read so that I can be completely clear. People who know me at all know that I am an analyst and follow statistics related to Panama and Latin America. Today, I will share some statistics made available to the public by Panama’s National Migration Service. I will also share a comment from an expert in regional real estate and investment published by a very respected financial news service, Bloomberg.

I am sure most of us know that Colombia is under stress for a variety of social, political, and economic reasons. So are most nations, not only in Latin America but globally. I have no comments to make on Colombia's situation, but this is something we need to be aware of in Panama because it indicates a new factor in our future, including the real estate sector. Whatever the reasons may be for Colombia's internal situation, we must put opinions aside and focus on facts.

So let us take a look at the statistics. The following provides the average monthly number of residency visas awarded to Colombians over the period, 2010 through 2018 which were very stable over time, followed by the monthly averages for 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.

Here are the numbers awarded for each month of 2023 separately.

Now, let us compare the total number of residency visas awarded to Colombians each year from 2010 through 2023, but notice how many months are included in each year.

It is very likely that we will pass the 2022 record at some point in August, a few weeks from now. And if June is any indication, we will pass the 10K mark by the end of this year. It is not only the poor who are crossing the Darien Gap, but also those arriving at Tocumen International.

They all count and we do what we can in Panama to help.

So what does this mean? At Panama Wave, we look at the future of real estate in Panama, not the past or the present. That is why we keep a close watch on a variety of statistics that we share with clients. We look for direction.  We look for potential. Above all, we look for the market of buyers. From our perspective, we currently focus on the eastern portion of Panama Province which we think has a great future. Anecdotally, we have also heard of Colombian purchases in the Lake Bayano area, but apparently small-scale at this time. This does not qualify as a "fact" yet, but it does mean we need to be alert.

But what about right now? Has this had any impact yet on Panama's real estate market?  We have no specific statistics, so we have to trust that an expert with a great deal of experience with Latin American relocation can provide something genuinely useful based on their corporate experience. 

Colliers International Group Inc. provides services to “high-net-worth” investors. A report was published on April 27th of this year by Bloomberg News that took a close look at where the money is moving in Latin America in response to all the changes going on today, everywhere in the region. I will quote the one comment that specifically refers to Panama real estate. The gentleman quoted is in charge of Colliers' regional office for Latin America. He chose two examples of money leaving Latin America searching for safety. I have no doubt that he had many examples to choose from, but common sense suggests he chose two of his best. The bold italics are my emphasis.

“Since 2020, Mexican investors have spent more than €700 million ($774 million) on Spanish real estate and construction. Colombians have bought as many as 500 Panamanian properties in the past few months alone, estimates Samuel Urrutia, who heads real estate company Colliers International Group Inc.’s unit for the region.”

Some of you may wonder why 500 properties would be such a big deal. Well, remember, Panama is a small real estate market. The entire Republic of Panama has a population of a little over 4.2 million (2023 result reported in today's news). According to Wikipedia, the city of Bogota alone has a population of 8 million and when you add its metro area, the total reaches 12.8 million. I am not making any predictions at all. I only note that the potential is there for a substantial increase.

If you are a subscriber to Bloomberg, you can access the article in English or in Spanish. If you are not, you may be able to see it anyway. If that is not possible, let me know at radams@panamawave.com and I will do what I can to help.

As a region, Latin America is in trouble. As the same article points out, "People and corporations in the region’s five largest economies pulled roughly $137 billion out of their countries in 2022. That number — preliminary data from the Institute of International Finance, a group of banking institutions — is 41% higher than the 2021 figure and the most since 2010."  

I suspect they are seeing more of the same this year. 

We continue to follow this and many other statistics from a variety of reliable professional sources. Colombians are not the only people on the move in Latin America, but they clearly outnumber other nationalities seeking residency here in Panama and they are just a short flight from Panama City. Their stress and sorrow should bring us no joy. That is not the way to "market" our real estate, but it is a simple reality that has to be faced.

Thankfully, if you seek safe haven, this is Panama. The Panamanian people have welcomed others in trouble from many nations in the past, Colombia included. It is one of Panama's great strengths for which it rarely gets the credit it deserves. In so many ways, Panama is truly the corazón of the Americas.

¡Viva Colombia! ¡Viva Panamá!