Complexity is destiny: Why the past is a poor guide to the future

It's common to deploy historical analogies to explain the present. But in today's complex world, the past is often a poor guide to the future. Indeed, our truly multipolar, multi-regional, multi-civilizational system is without precedent in history. To the right is what I have long called the "geopolitical marketplace" in which no power sits at the center but all compete to connect and exercise leverage in a perpetual tug-of-war. Competitive connectivity is the geopolitics of the 21st century.

Mega-disruptors: Demographic decline and climate volatility

This profound geopolitical complexity is amplified by the onset of global demographic decline and accelerating climate change. It's (almost) official: Gen-Alpha will be smaller than Gen-Z. Fertility has collapsed worldwide owing to female empowerment, urbanization, economic insecurity and climate concerns. "Peak humanity" is upon us – and that's before we factor in another pandemic or accelerating climate disasters.

People on the move and the global war for young talent

In theory, there has never been a better time to be a young and mobile person. The gap between old and young – both within countries and across them – has never been larger. Youth are childless and asset lite. Their skills are needed everywhere. But not all youth are skilled or blessed with globally accepted passports. And receiving societies feel politically and culturally overwhelmed by mass migration. But make no mistake – or just turn on the news. To paraphrase what Leon Trotsky famously said about war, "You may not be interested in migration, but migration is interested in you." The countries that best harness mobile young talent will be the winners of tomorrow.

Where complexity meets geography

As you may know, I've been in "founder mode" for the past two years with AlphaGeo. Our ambition is nothing less than the reprogramming of geography for a complex age. The first phase is to build the category of resilient investing. We began by defining what makes a physical place resilient to the many shocks unfolding today, particularly climate volatility. We then built the largest spatial index of risk and resilience features and plotted it onto a high-resolution global map. Our clients now include some of the world's largest asset managers and insurers – but anyone can use AlphaGeo to explore our predictive analytics for your very own home, office or other location. Just click here!