Concrete's Future in Doubt: Is the Building Block of Modern Society on the Way Out?

A number of construction companies, including BAM, have taken steps to carry out part of their housing production in timber, the reason being that timber has advantages in terms of both construction and CO2 storage. Moreover, sustainable wood is available in sufficient quantities in Europe and there is room for sustainable growth of wood production.

So the question arises: does concrete still have a future?

Innovation or marginalization

Due to recent developments, there is a real chance that concrete will lose market share. If the concrete sector wants to prevent this, high sustainability ambitions must be achieved. Investments in disruptive innovations are needed to make bigger leaps in sustainability. But traditionally, the concrete sector has been operationally organized and lacks innovative power, that is my observation. Fortunately, the Concrete Agreement (Samen maken we de betonsector duurzamer - Betonakkoord) shows that leaders in the concrete sector are willing to innovate, take the lead and invest. That's a good thing, because if these innovations don't happen, further marginalization will ensue.

Best combination

It is too easy to just discuss whether concrete is better or worse than wood (or another material). When designing and building houses, bridges and tunnels, it is important that the material is used as efficiently and favorably as possible. After all, inefficient use of materials is not sustainable. It rarely, if ever, happens that a building is made 100% from one material. In almost all cases it is about the best combination.

Much is already possible

The pursuit of the best combination does not only apply to wood, steel and concrete, but also to concrete itself. Familiar concrete compositions are making way for new compositions due to sustainability goals and scarcity of raw materials. The best we can achieve in this respect is a concrete composition with 'zero impact'. It is good to realize that almost half of the reduction of CO2 emissions that we are aiming for with concrete can already be achieved with means that are already known. Think of CO2 capture during production, alternative binders, cement stone recycling, clinker replacement, smarter construction planning and much more.

But there are many more possibilities to reduce CO2 emissions than just in relation to cement. Almost 80% of the possible reduction is determined before construction starts. So it is crucial for clients, developers, designers and constructors to gain knowledge about the possibilities in advance. Unfortunately, the level of knowledge within the entire construction sector about what is possible and what needs to be done in 2023 is still far below par. Fortunately, relevant training and education are offered, including by the Betonvereniging (Dutch Concrete Association), to fill this knowledge gap, so make use of it.

Win or lose the competition?

Cement producers have CO2 rights, but these are reduced annually. If production remains the same, additional emission allowances must therefore be purchased. You could argue that this has a temporary character, but the fact is that the price for CO2 rights has risen considerably in the meantime. This has led to a price increase of 35% in 2022. It is expected that the same price increase will take place in 2023 for cement and concrete mortar. As a result, the material costs of concrete have also risen quickly and probably permanently. These costs are passed on to the market and ultimately to the consumer through the pricing power of producers. This financial mechanism has not yet led to the expected innovation: lower CO2 emissions and therefore less need for CO2 rights.

If we want to break this upward trend, a fundamental change has to take place in the market. For example, through new entrants who actually reduce their CO2 emissions and are competitive on environmental impact.

A low MKI is becoming increasingly important as a purchasing criterion and a more favorable environmental impact provides a competitive advantage during tenders. It's the difference between winning or not winning a project. Concrete with less or no CO2 emissions will soon no longer be an option, but a must have and crucial in the competitive battle. Knowledge of the reduction of CO2 emissions is essential for the acquisition of new works and the survival of companies.

High resale value

There is another way of looking at sustainability. In both housing and infrastructure, we see that existing concrete constructions can be given a completely new application with a number of interventions or that their lifespan can be extended. There are good examples of office buildings that are being converted into homes, giving a new purpose to the concrete skeleton. And the lifespan of concrete bridges can be extended by monitoring, self-healing repair mortars and/or synthetic fiber reinforcement. These possibilities are still largely unused, while here concrete offers them more opportunities compared to other materials. Existing concrete structures have a high residual value that can be capitalized on by the change of function or lifespan extension. This is where value creation comes in.

A fundamental shift: NGF Beton Reinvented

In the past month several parties in the concrete chain have come together to achieve a fundamental system change. Clients, suppliers of raw materials, ready-mix and precast concrete, binding agents and reinforcement, construction companies, demolition and recycling companies, engineering firms, and knowledge institutions have all be involved in the NGF (Nationaal Groeifondsaanvraag) Beton Reinvented submission. The new TKI Bouw en Techniek will play a central role in operationalizing this sector-wide program. Due to the system transition, a board, broad advisory group, and monitoring committee are provided.

Granting the NGF application for Beton Reinvented would provide a significant boost to the sustainability of the concrete sector and chain. It would enable ambitious innovation within this chain to take place in the Netherlands, with a substantial spin-off effect in other countries. Let me explain briefly why this is the case.

Sustainability throughout the entire concrete chain requires a transition that no single entity - be it a company, government, client, or other organization - can achieve alone. Yes, a company or client can conduct a pilot, but without collaboration with various parties, scaling it up will not be possible. The NGF proposal 'Beton Reinvented' aims to achieve sustainability throughout the entire concrete chain with all the necessary parties involved: market players, the Dutch government, clients, engineering and consulting firms, certification bodies, knowledge institutions, and civil society organizations. This requires an orchestrated transition approach that focuses not only on technological innovation but also on changing the way the concrete chain currently operates and generates business. It is a system innovation that requires all parties to adapt.

Therefore, I call on the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management to approve the NGF application for Beton Reinvented. It is an opportunity for the government to support a comprehensive and collaborative effort to achieve a sustainable concrete chain, setting an example for other countries to follow.

Future in our own hands

The need to reduce CO2 emissions leads to a shift in the use of materials. There must be a continuous search for the optimal combination of materials and optimal concrete compositions. If greater innovative steps are taken, the competitive battle can be won and there will be a future for concrete. That future is determined by the learning capacity of the sector itself and the innovative power of front runners and new entrants.

This article was published earlier in Dutch on 8th of March 2022: Heeft beton nog wel een toekomst? (cementonline.nl) In addition the NGF submission and recent mortar price developments was added in today's article.