COP29: Are the Countries Prepared to Fulfil Their $100 Billion Annual Climate Finance Pledge?

With COP29 now coming its way in Baku, the global focus on climate finance is sharper than ever. For many years, promises of funding for climate adaptation and mitigation in vulnerable nations have fallen persistently short. Especially, the failure to meet such financial assistance has seriously hit those countries which have historically contributed minimum to global emissions but are among the most affected by climate impacts. This year, with the stakes higher than ever, the international community wants to see concrete actions that prove commitments to climate finance are pursued-not as overdue pledges, but as a lifeline.

Namibia's Drought and the Stark Realities of Climate Change

Namibia is experiencing a drought so severe that the government has been forced to cull hundreds of its wildlife - from elephants and hippopotamuses down to zebras, for their meat, to feed its people. Close to half of Namibia's populace is battling what has been commemorated as the worst drought in a century.

This tragedy is now highlighting the cry for adaptation finance rather poignantly; after all, without it, poor countries have to make some operatic choices as the climate conditions grow decidedly hostile. With already 723 animals lined up for culling, the Namibian government has distributed about 63 tonnes of meat, a critical resource for a country where hunger and poverty are escalating due to climate conditions beyond their control.

Climate Finance: From Talking to Walking

The developing world has, of course, complained about the lack of adequate financial support from the wealthier nations. Where developed countries can afford to consider low-carbon development pathways, for the Global South, sustainable development in the absence of external financial support eludes them. Many countries in the developing world struggle to provide basic needs - electricity, jobs, clean drinking water for their people, let alone finance an energy transition. To expect countries like Namibia, with the lowest carbon emission rates in the world, for instance, to be bold with green energy technology without support underscores the making of effective climate finance mechanisms urgent.

COP29, therefore, presents a defining moment. This pledge of $100 billion annual climate finance was made over a decade ago at the Copenhagen Accord and is yet to be met. That was to be provided by 2020, to developing nations for adaptation and mitigation. To this date, however, this target has not always been met, and that generates frustration and skepticism. For vulnerable countries such as Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and the small island states of the Pacific, climate finance is not a policy debate topic but an existential one.

Securing Transparency and Continuity in Climate Finance

Accountability in the distribution of the funds will be one of the key calls from developing nations at COP29. The past has been filled with many pledges whose details about actual allocation and delivery remain vague, creating a situation that has instilled a kind of distrust. For that matter, the developing nations will urge that not only should the $100 billion target be met, but it also needs to attain a level of stability and recurrence.

An updated climate finance roadmap that is expected to be presented at COP29 should outline concrete steps that would ensure that the funds reach the countries that need them most and are transparently tracked so as not to misuse or redirection of these crucial resources.

Beyond the $100 Billion Pledge: Setting Ambitious Goals beyond 2025 While the $100 billion pledge is overdue, it was never intended to be the ultimate target either. According to a report from Down to Earth (2024), till 2030, the developing nations will need more than $5 trillion, that is at least a whopping $584 billion annually, to meet the current climate pledges. India has raised the stakes further by calling for a $1 trillion target for climate finance-one better reflective of the actual scale of adaptation and mitigation costs.

The results of negotiations at COP29 will be a new collective quantified goal above the $100 billion target, with the right kind of support developing countries would actually need. But it is reportedly only debating "hundreds of billions" from developed countries instead of the trillions many believe to be needed.

This gap between demand and commitment is likely one of the main causes of contention. Should the NCQG set an ambitious, achievable target that recognizes the scale of the climate crisis, then it will surely be a major boost for global climate action. Failing that, it risks ending up as another hollow promise.

Adaptation Finance: Dire Needs on the Ground

A common complaint of developing countries, however, is that climate finance is disproportionately slanted toward mitigation over adaptation, which addresses the immediate impacts of climate change. For countries already experiencing severe extreme events, adaptation funding is crucial.

Countries like Mozambique, which face recurrent cyclones, and Bangladesh, where millions are at risk from rising sea levels, require funds to build resilient infrastructure, improve agricultural practices, and protect vulnerable ecosystems.

Developing nations are expected to push for COP29 to address this disparity by earmarking more funds specifically for adaptation. Least-developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS), which face disproportionate impacts from climate change, have little ability to adapt without external support. If COP29 can secure new pledges for adaptation finance, it would be a significant victory for these vulnerable nations.

Steering Geopolitical Conflict within the Climate Finance Negotiations

Climate finance has been entangled in geopolitical tensions for a very long time. Where developing nations argue that wealthier countries, as historical contributors to global emissions, have a moral obligation to lead on finance; developed nations, for their part, have been slow to fulfill funding promises and reluctant to commit to the scale of support demanded.

This year, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has called for nations to set aside blame and work collaboratively, but it remains to be seen whether such calls will translate into action amid ongoing disputes.

Adding to the complexity is the limited engagement from the private sector. Major financial institutions like Bank of America and BlackRock, which have the resources to significantly boost climate finance, will be absent from COP29. Their reluctance highlights the challenges of aligning private capital with climate objectives. At COP29, governments are expected to explore regulatory incentives that could make climate projects more attractive to private investors, who could play a crucial role in closing the funding gap.

Can COP29 Deliver?

With climate change accelerating, there is little time left for more delays. COP29 in Baku could be a defining moment for climate finance. If developed countries honor their $100 billion pledge, set ambitious post-2025 targets, and prioritize adaptation finance, COP29 could set a new standard for global climate action. However, if promises remain unfulfilled, COP29 risks being remembered as yet another missed opportunity in the fight against climate change.

The question now is whether the world’s wealthiest nations can move beyond promises and deliver real, sustained climate finance for the nations that need it most. With billions of lives hanging in the balance, the stakes for COP29 couldn’t be higher. The world will be watching, and the time for bold, concrete action is now.